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Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, every bear market goes down more than many people think it will. It has always recovered. This time is no different.
MARKET UPDATE
Tomorrow: Canada Day holiday
Monday: U.S. Independence Day holiday
The last time the S&P 500 fell 20% in the first half of the year was…..drum roll………February 1970
As we close out Q2
Base metals headed for the worst quarterly slump since 2008
Oil is heading for its first monthly decline since November 2021
U.S. dollar is hitting multi-decade highs.
The market is believing Powell is Volcker
Crude $109 flat
OPEC+ meeting today
Expect the ministers to confirm already announced 648,000 increase
….which they won’t be able to actually do.
Only Saudi Arabia and UAE can produce more but they are restricted under the current OPEC+ agreement
The emergency U.S. strategic reserve release will end in October and that’s 1 million b/d
The current OPEC+ agreement expires in September. What will the new agreement look like?
Restoration Hardware -8% $218
Slashing forecast for the 2nd time in less than a month
Blaming soaring mortgage rates and shrinking sales of luxury homes
Gary Friedman, CEO and Chairman:
“with mortgage rates double last year’s levels, luxury home sales down 18% in Q1
and the Federal Reserve’s forecast for another 175 basis point increase to the Fed Funds rate by year end
our expectation is that demand will continue to slow throughout the year”
RH has not repurchased any shares since announcing the increase of its common stock repurchase on June 2/22
Closer to Home, on concern on Canadian housing, a common WRONG theme over the years
Earnings
Constellation Brands
Walgreens Boots Alliance
CRYPTO UPDATE
HODL’ers holding more than 1,000 BTC represent ~46% of the total Bitcoin supply
These whales have been adding to their positions aggressively throughout the sell-off
Acquiring $140k BTC per month
“Shrimps”, or investors with > 1 BTC, are also stacking
Have been adding at most aggressive rate since March 2020
No signs of capitulation yet
SEC rejects Grayscale’s application to convert its flagship trust product to a spot Bitcoin ETF
Another one bites the dust
SEC cited market manipulation, concerns regarding Tether, and the lack of a “surveillance-sharing agreement between a ‘regulated market of significant size” and a regulated exchange”
Grayscale is suing the SEC
MEME OF THE DAY
Here’s a look at the top trending tickers on WallStreetBets over the last 24 hours:
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