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In the last year, we've had:

• 10 rate hikes

• Record high 9.1% inflation

• Unprecedented bank crisis

Despite this, the S&P 500 has erased ALL of the losses since the FED started raising rates. The S&P 500 is now up +20% in the last year and is only 8% away from the all-time high.

This is the most resilient market I have ever seen 🔥

🌏 When President Xi Jinping declared victory over Covid 5 months ago, China looked poised for a sharp recovery.

• With growth still struggling, that rebound has yet to materialize.

• Now, following a series of interest rate cuts by its central bank this week, Beijing is considering fiscal stimulus measures to help rescue its flailing economy.

• On the table are an increase in infrastructure spending, incentives to boost consumption, and a loosening of rules around its property sector to encourage investments.

📊 Shifting focus to the US, yesterday featured a slew of economic data releases.

• Regional manufacturing gauges from New York and Philadelphia were mixed but offered signs of optimism.

• Broader factory production showed slowing growth, suggesting manufacturers remain cautious amid weak global demand and spending.

• The cost of imports fell for the fourth time in five months which bodes well for inflation.

• Initial jobless claims were higher than expected but were unchanged from last week’s total and remain at the highest level in 18 months.

🛒 Retail sales, meanwhile, unexpectedly rose 0.3% in May in a sign that consumers are spending their way through uncertainty.

• Most categories (10/13) saw an increase over the previous month.

• Core retail sales—which exclude gas and autos–rose by 0.4% while the control group—which is used in calculating GDP—increased by 0.2%.

• Resilience among consumers poses a challenge for the Fed as it attempts to reign in inflation by cooling the economy.

📈 Shares of Microsoft closed at a new all-time high yesterday.

• The stock has risen for 6 straight sessions, marking its longest winning streak since January.

• It joins Apple and Nvidia as the third mega-cap tech company to reach new highs this year.

• With its 45% YTD performance, Microsoft has added over $800 billion to its market value.

🎉 Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava made its stock market debut yesterday and it did not disappoint.

• At one point, the stock was up close to 120%.

• Shares nearly doubled their $22 listing price, ending the day at $43.78 and giving the company a market value of $4.9 billion–well above the initial valuation of $2.45 billion.

• With the best debut performance since July 2022 (and before that, since June 2021), Cava’s warm reception could help reignite a historically slow IPO market.

🚘 How bullish should investors be following Tesla’s record 13-day winning streak? Depends on who you ask.

• According to BofA analysts, Tesla’s share of the US electric vehicle market is poised to fall to 18% by 2026 from 62% in 2022.

• Analysts at RBC Capital, on the other hand, have raised their price target to $305 from $212, reflecting a bright future filled with robotaxis, full-self driving tech, and expanding margins.

• Retail investors, meanwhile, bought more shares of Tesla than any other company for the second week in a row, and it wasn’t even close.

⛽ At the start of June, the trading price for European gas benchmark TTF was at a 2-year low of €23/MwH.

• Today, that price is more than twice as high.

• The recent surge comes despite record-high storage levels for this time of year, reflecting renewed fears about supply disruptions and the need to replace Russian supplies which met 40% of the EU’s demand prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

📊 Yesterday’s highlights:

 Adobe: $3.91 EPS (vs. $3.79 expected) ✅, $4.82 billion in sales (vs. $4.77B expected) ✅.

• Adobe reported record revenue in Q2 with growth across all 3 business segments.

• It also issued quarterly and full-year guidance for profits and revenue that exceeded expectations.

👀 What we’re watching today:

• NaaS Technology

Full earnings here.

• ECB hikes: The European Central Bank raised interest rates to the highest level in over 2 decades.

• Junk fees: President Biden has renewed his fight against hidden junk fees to increase transparency and protect consumers.

• Retail throne: Analysts expect online sales to propel Amazon past Walmart as the largest US retailer in 2024.

• Auto chatbot: Mercedes-Benz is partnering with Microsoft to roll out an optional beta program that features in-car ChatGPT.

• Dr. Copper: Copper prices are rallying on renewed growth prospects from China.

• Attractive credit: Relative to the earnings yield on the S&P 500, the yield on BBB credit is at its highest in 15 years.

• SEC vs. AI: The SEC is considering implementing new rules to govern the use of AI in wealth management firms.

• Happy OpEx day: Around $4.2 trillion of contracts tied to stocks and indexes are set to mature today.

• BTC ETF: BlackRock’s iShares has submitted paperwork to the SEC for an ever-elusive spot Bitcoin ETF.

• Battle prep: Binance.US is laying off employees to cut costs as it prepares for an expensive legal battle with US regulators.

• Another Binance exit: After withdrawing from Cyprus, Binance is now leaving the Netherlands to focus on fewer regulated EU markets.

• US vs. SBF: The US government punted 5 charges against Sam Bankman-Fried into 2024.

• Dorsey’s wallet: Block (formerly Square) will integrate its Bitkey Bitcoin wallet with Coinbase and Cash App with public beta testing starting in a few weeks.

Check out GritCRYPTO for more.

• PGA x LIV: The US Justice Department will investigate PGA Tour’s planned merger with LIV to determine potential antitrust violations.

• Book deal: KKR and HarperCollins are among the bidders for Simon & Schuster, which is pursuing a sale for the second time in less than 3 years.

• O&G M&A: Patterson-UTI Energy has agreed to acquire NexTier for $1.9 billion in an all-stock deal.

• No, thanks: First Quantum Minerals has rejected an informal takeover offer from Barrick Gold.

• Domains: Alphabet is selling its Google Comains business to Squarespace for ~$180 million.

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