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Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, the stock market has doubled your money every ten years for the last 100 years (on average). It has done this with:
It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.
Yesterday’s rally (1.9%) being reversed on SNAP’s admission that Q2 estimates too high
Investors will now sharpen their pencils and focus on second-half estimates
Yesterday was a good day for the banks
S&P 500 +1.9%
Why were financials so strong yesterday?
Jamie Dimon’s comments from JPM investor day:
Global economy looking like storm clouds not a Tsunami
JPM guided up Net Interest Income
Credit normalization will go past 2022 due to a strong consumer
Q2 2022 quarter-to-date trading looking up 15-20% vs. street estimates of down 2%
Bond market is buying into peak inflation
Rates have dropped from 3% to 2.8%
12:20 p.m. Jay Powell at an economic summit
May Purchasing Power Index (PPI) data
Japan slight improvement
Australia PPI for May dropped
Europe PPI above low-expectations
U.S. 9:45 a.m. PPI data
Rolled out $21 billion of tax rebates to stimulate demand
Crude 110 flat
U.S. preparing to renew Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela but without an expansion in production
SNAP -30% pre-market
Cut earnings forecasts below bottom end of previous guide
One-by-One, Social Media stocks (which rely on digital advertising, eCommerce) wiping out Pandemic gains
Google, Meta, Amazon, Twitter, Pinterest all effected by the drop in digital advertising from Lockdown highs
SNAP back to pre-pandemic levels
The material surge in eCommerce and consequently in Digital Advertising that we got during the lockdown was unsustainable
Advertising is cyclical
Longer term, secular growth story in eCommerce and Digital Advertising is intact
Zoom already at pre-pandemic levels, +7% in pre-market
At their peak, DeFi protocols represented over $200B in assets, or ~3% of the total market
Over the last year, however, that market share has been declining:
Bitcoin’s put/call ratio looks like it has peaked:
And short-term realized volatility has declined sharply over the last week:
Bitcoin is outperforming top DeFi tokens indicating a risk-off environment:
Remember China’s ban on Bitcoin mining? Many miners have come back online anyway:
This effect of more miners combined with increased network difficulty and a lower price has Bitcoin’s hashprice declining:
MEME OF THE DAY
Snap Inc ($SNAP) tumbled after the CEO announced the company would miss earnings and revenue targets. Here’s the flow before the news came out:
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