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Good Morning Everyone!
Except for those who don’t know that the U.S stock market has recovered from every single crash.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P500 Bear Market, 10 year hits 13 year high, Gasoline all-time high, Peak inflation keeps peaking
Markets are indicating a new low for the S&P 500 today
S&P 500 will officially go into a Bear Market today if markets fall 2% as indicated (below 3820 level)
Rate hike expectations continue to ramp up
The Fed has tightened 75 basis points and we are still getting higher inflation data (Peak inflation keeps peaking)
As a result, The Fed has lost credibility
Friday’s higher inflation data now have investors anticipating more aggressive Fed tightening
FOMC meets on Wednesday and they may go 75 points instead of 50
My view: Will the market throw another tantrum if we don’t get 75 bps this week?
Investors want to Fed to regain creditability (i.e. get more aggressive, we need to see “peak inflation”).
Powell, we need you to be more like Volcker.
Stay defensive.
10yr 3.25% 13 year high
US dollar trading at 20-year highs
Crude 119 -2%
U.S. gasoline prices topped $5 nationally for the 1st time ever
(Good Luck Democrats in the mid-terms with $5 pump prices and $300 F-150 fill-ups)
Amos Hochstein, President of Biden’s Energy Team:
“We are in the midst of the most severe energy crisis the world has witnessed including the crisis of the 1970s”
China
Walking back some restrictions
Authorities delayed the reopening for most schools in Beijing that was planned for Monday
Most districts in Shanghai suspended dine-in services at restaurants
Earnings None
CRYPTO
Massive sell-off in the crypto markets this morning as volatility erupts:
Bitcoin is approaching long-term support at the weekly 200MA:
Total crypto market cap has dipped below $1 trillion
Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin has worsened:
Some of Bitcoin’s hashrate is moving offline, suggesting miner revenues are under pressure:
MEME OF THE DAY
The Musk/Twitter saga continues—here’s the flow that took $TWTR into the weekend:
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