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Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, the stock market has doubled your money every ten years for the last 100 years (on average). It has done this with:
It’s a long-term game. Zoom out.
Yesterday S&P 500 up 2.8%
498 of the S&P 500 names higher
Largest number of advancers since Dec. 26, 2018
Only the 8th time since 1996 that 495+ S&P 500 stocks higher
QQQs (Nasdaq 100 ETF) up through its 50 day moving average (1st time since March 2022)
Yesterday, Defensive sectors underperformed (Staples and Utilities)
Crude 99 -2%
Putin said today that the Nord Stream pipeline will restart tomorrow, but flows will be limited.
API (American Petroleum Institute) reports larger than expected rise in U.S. inventories last week
Netlfix +5%, up 20% in the past 5 trading days, Message: Q2 was the bottom
Q2 subs down 1 million Q-o-Q vs. guide down 2 million AND Q3 guide up 1 million (flat over Q2 and Q3)
Q3 Revenue guide is light related to FX headwinds (strong U.S. dollar).
Confidence that they can reaccelerate revenues.
Advertising tier is targeted for early 2023 launch
Password sharing launch also in early 2023 (100 million households use Netflix but don’t pay for Netflix)
Q2/22 Paid memberships: Total = 221 million
UCAN 73 million USA, Canada
EMEA 73 million Europe, Middle East, Africa
LATAM 40 million Latin America
APAC 35 million Asia-Pacific, India, Korea, Australia
Netflix is now self-funding.
NFLX expects substantial free cash flow in 2023 as paid advertising and password sharing launch.
Q2 net cash generated by operating activities was $103 million. For the full year 2022, FCF to be about $1 billion.
Free Cash Flow for 2023 and going forward will be above $1 billion / year.
2021-2022 TV Season, Netflix almost matched #2 CBS and #3 NBC combined (see chart).
Netflix share of U.S. TV viewing reached an all-time high of 7.7% in June 2022.
Cease fire in the content wars: Content spend $17 billion in 2022 and guide for $17B in 2023/2024
Streaming industry is shifting from “growth-at-any-cost” TO “profitable growth”
Other streaming stocks to watch today: Disney, Roku, Paramount, Warner Brothers
Don’t miss Netflix’s Friday release of their $200 million budget movie “Gray Man”, most expensive Netflix original movie
JB Hunt in line, consumer is strong, no signs of a freight recession yet
ASML Semi -4%, reduced guidance
Biogen EPS beat, guidance maintained
Baker Hughes missed EBITDA and Revenue
Under the Radar
FUTURE OF GAMING. The Play2Earn gaming industry represents massive revenue opportunities in Web3. With the upcoming launch of its new P2E platform which will enable more lucrative connections between players and games, NFT Tech is poised to capitalize on this explosive sector of the metaverse*!
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Ethereum is up +50% over its July lows
Total ETH supply in profit has risen above 50%
On the other hand, 50% of all value held by short-term BTC holders is at a loss, BUT…
Bitcoin is setting up to break above 3 long-term price models
Avg cost basis (Realized Price)
Avg cost basis of long-term holders (LTH-Realized Price)
200-week moving average
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