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Uncertainty around Q2 earnings

WEDNESDAY MARKET UPDATE
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Uncertainty around Q2 earnings

WEDNESDAY MARKET UPDATE

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Good Morning Everyone!

Remember, the stock market has doubled your money every ten years for the last 100 years (on average). It has done this with:  

Recessions.  

Depressions.  

World Wars.  

Crashes.    

It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.

MARKET UPDATE

QQQ trading in a narrow range as investors debate near-term trajectory for estimates for Q2 and 2nd half 2022

10yr     3%

  • 7 a.m.  U.S. MBA Mortgage purchase application index down 7.1% in week ended June 3

  • Now down 21% y/y

  • Good data for a soft landing scenario

Opposite for used car prices which had been falling but were up 0.7% in May 2022 (reported yesterday).

  • That broke a 3-month streak of consecutive month over month declines

  • Manheim May’s index is just 5.7% below the all-time peak and 60% higher than May 2019

Crude  121      +1%

  • Gas Buddy had national demand down 2.3% sequentially

  • last week included the holiday weekend but not the fill ups beforehand

  • 2% is not demand destruction

10:30 a.m.       Department of Energy oil inventory numbers 

  • Exxon hitting 2014 highs

Valuations

  • Multiples have certainly come down (see Public Cloud valuations below).

  • As an example: Shopify traded north of 30 times revenue. SHOP currently trades at 10 times revenue.

  • What that means in stock price is staggering. High of $2139 to todays $476.

  • Is the multiple compression enough or are earnings estimates coming down as we wrap up Q2?

Earnings

  • Casey’s

  • Campbell Soup

Under the Radar

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CRYPTO

  • US Senators Gillibrand and Lummis introduced a long-awaited bipartisan bill that seeks to provide a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets — key takeaways:

    • Define the terrain between crypto securities and commodities

    • Would give Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority over spot markets in crypto commodities

    • Seeks to clarify the meaning of a crypto broker

    • Crypto operations would have to start paying fees to CTFC

    • Suggest an industry “sandbox” to let firms test new products on a limited scale and duration

    • New framework for banks and credit unions to issue stablecoins

    • Good starting point, but this is going to take time

  • Citibank released a report yesterday offering a blueprint for organizations considering crypto adoption —key takeaways:

    • Active Bitcoin addresses have declined

    • Futures open interest has declined but is recovering

    • ETF inflows in recent days

    • Reduction in trading volumes and futures positions, but no wholesale declines in investor interest

    • “Whether or not cryptocurrency disrupts the payment system as we know it, it has sparked new thinking in payment infrastructure, processing, and accounting, in addition to its increasing adoption as a store of value”

  • Related: Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to trade BTC futures

    • Also: trading firms Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial are working together on a crypto “ecosystem” that would allow retail brokerages to offer crypto-execution

  • FTX surpassed Coinbase in total Bitcoin spot trading volume:

  • But Binance still dominates the space:

  • Bitcoin is still trading in the same range established in mid-May:

Bitcoin - range mania
  • A realized price of $23,600 (average cost basis of all Bitcoin in supply) should act as key support:

CoinDesk - Unknown

MEME OF THE DAY

How is WallStreetBets feeling this morning?

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Disclaimer:The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page.  All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.

Grit Capital Corporation is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor.  We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient.  

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME.  THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION.  INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.  

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable.  They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur.  Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein.  The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the publisher undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.

The publisher, its affiliates, and clients of the a publisher or its affiliates may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities).  To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.

Neither the publisher nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

By using the Site or any affiliated social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.

For Full Terms of Use Click HERE. For the Privacy Policy Click HERE.

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