Who Will Win The EV Car Race?

The EV Race Is Here
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Matt Allen
A passion for helping the average person led Matt to start his newsletter, The Common Capitalist, which is a newsletter that focuses on helping the average investor better understand finance.

Who Will Win The EV Car Race?

The EV Race Is Here

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Dear Friends,

I hope everyone had a great Christmas week, and they are getting ready for New Years. In this article, we are going to discuss the heated race of EV Car Brands.

If 2021 was the year for electric vehicle companies, 2022 is the year for actual deliveries. At least that is what the CEOs have been promising.

Rivian and Lucid Motors went public in 2021 with barely any revenue. Rivian is valued at $90 Billion, while Lucid is valued at $60 Billion.

Fisker and Lordestown have hit the public markets in the last year and a half with much lower valuations and promises to start delivering vehicles in 2022 or 2023.

Fisker is currently valued at $4.31 Billion, while Lordestown is valued at $732 Million.

Finally, Tesla is valued at around $1.09 Trillion, and they are actually delivering cars.

Why did I just bore you with those numbers?

Let me put this in comparison for you: 

Toyota is worth $262 Billion, Ford is worth $82 Billion, and GM is worth $82 Billion.

Rivian has yet to deliver a car, and they are worth more than Mercedes, Ford, GM, BMW, Ferrari, Honda, Hyundai, KIA, Volvo, and many more companies on an individual basis.

This stat is about to blow your mind: 

Tesla is worth more than GM, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagon, BMW, Ferrari, Honda, Hyundai, KIA, Volvo, and Nissan COMBINED.

Wait, what do I mean by combined? Let’s just have some fun and pretend that we are a Trillionaire.

You could either purchase all of Tesla for $1.09 Trillion OR purchase all of GM, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, BMW, Ferrari, Honda, Hyundai, KIA, Volvo, and Nissan for the same price that you could purchase all of Tesla.

The crazy part? 

Tesla is considered undervalued in relation to how the other EV companies are priced which is complete madness to me.

Remember, Rivan and Lucid are worth more than most of these companies. Do me a favor, check out how many Rivian or Lucid cars that you might see on the road today compared to the mainstream cars that I listed above. Zero.

Why are they priced this high? 

When you purchase a growth stock, you are really banking on future value. For example, Rivian and Lucid have been marketed as “the Tesla Killer.” Everyone wants to be in the next big stock. However, in my humble opinion, it doesn’t really work like that. People usually purchase shares at insane prices and justify it as “the next big thing.” And then they wonder, why the heck did the stock go down by 50%.

Remember, we have a free market, so the market determines the current valuation of a company. This does not mean the real valuation of a company. It is our job to decide current value PLUS future growth.

We are going to discuss some delivery estimations for these EV companies below so it can help us get a better idea of these companies.

Market Cap is the value of a company. The difference between public and private companies are that a public companies value is determined on the stock market by the public.


Stock Price: $1,088

Market Cap: $1.09 Trillion

I am a Tesla fan, because I have always realized that Tesla is more than a car company. Tesla is an autonomous technology, battery company, and ecosystem company that just happens to sell cars.

I do believe that Tesla is insanely overvalued at these levels, but you have to remember that Tesla makes money from other things outside of just selling cars.

Tesla is estimated to deliver 33% more cars in 2022. This is a great number for Tesla.

Tesla delivered just under 500,000 cars in 2020. 

In 2021, Tesla is on pace to deliver between 840,000 and 1,000,000 cars. This is a huge increase from 500,000, and Tesla’s stock price has reflected this.

In 2022, Tesla is estimated to deliver 33% more cars in 2022. This would put Tesla delivering around 1.3 Million cars in 2022.

It is important to remember that 5 years ago, 99% of people would call this amount of deliveries INSANE. However, Elon Musk was able to do it.

Keep in mind, you could have purchased Tesla for around $500 a year ago. In other words, if you want to add Tesla to your portfolio, you should be patient.

For Tesla to be truly valued at $1.09 Trillion, each car would need to sell for $1.9 Million. 


Stock Price: $102

Market Cap: $90 Billion

Rivian’s Marketcap is absolutely insane to me. You might be asking, why the heck are they worth more than Mercedes, Ford, GM, and BMW, if they have barely delivered any cars:

Amazon owns 20% of Rivian. Whenever Jeff Bezos was going into space, he rode up in a Rivian SUV. This created tons of PR for Rivian especially with their upcoming IPO. This was honestly a genius move by Bezos, Amazon, and the Rivian team. Rivian is copying the Tesla model which will attempt to bring in revenue outside of cars.

When Amazon invested in Rivian, they also made a purchase order for 100,000 cars.

Rivian is attacking the trucks and SUV market which is the fastest growing car market. This makes tons of sense because Tesla is really struggling with their SUV and Truck sales. (My buddy Bradley is getting a Tesla Truck, I wonder if he will like the Rivian better?) However, the Rivian numbers are absolutely horrible for a company valued at $90 Billion.

Rivian is planning to deliver 10,000 personal vehicles and 10,000 commercial vehicles in 2022.

Rivian is planning to deliver 45,000 personal vehicles in 2023 and 20,000 commercial vehicles in 2023.

This brings us to total of 85,000 vehicles delivered by 2023.

However, I must admit that I do not believe that Rivian will be able to reach these deliveries due to production and the supply chain crisis.

Rivian has a long way to go to be worth $90 Billon. HOWEVER, if you can buy this company at a much cheaper price, it is great idea.

For Rivian to be truly valued at $90 Billion, each car would need to sell for $160 Million. 


Stock Price: $36

Market Cap: $60 Billion

If you are a premium subscriber, I sent out Lucid at $15.

Lucid was the first company to be called, “Tesla Killer.” Lucid has a great leadership team that was founded by Elon Musk’s right hand man.

Lucid has done a great job of producing cars, and they are delivering cars unlike some of their competitors. Lucid has a better range than Tesla and some people argue that it is a better car.

In terms of deliveries: Lucid will deliver around 18,000 cars in 2022.

They will deliver around 42,000 cars in 2023, and 75,000 cars in 2024. In theory, Rivian will deliver more cars than Lucid by the end of 2023.

The difference between Rivian and Lucid is that Lucid is actually producing cars right now. There is so much that can go wrong when Rivian actually starts producing cars so I will be skeptical until I see the numbers.

Lucid and Rivan have the potential to be great companies, but be careful with their valuation.

For Lucid to be truly valued at $60 Billion, each car would need to sell for $120 Million. 


Stock Price: $16

Market Cap: 4.1 Billion

I am a much bigger fan of Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian. However, Fisker is actually closer to a more respectable valuation. Remember, we want to be stingy when investing in stocks. We want to find undervalued companies.

Fisker is way undervalued compared to Lucid and Rivian. Fisker is going to start delievering cars in 2022, and the Pope has gave them the rights to the car that he will ride around in. This will be great for free marketing.

Fisker has one car model which is the Fisker Ocean. This is a mid-size SUV that has around a 350 mile range. They have a model that goes up to $70,000 and down to $37,000.

The question is why is Fisker so much cheaper than Lucid and Rivian?

Fisker hasn’t brought a car to the market yet, and they do no expect to deliver any cars until the end of 2022.

Fisker has around 20,000 pre-orders which is a good number. You have to remember that these people are ordering a car that they won’t get for around 2 years.

In terms of deliveries, Fisker hopes to get 1,000 out by 2022. In 2023, 40,000 is their projected number. This is a huge number, and I believe that they will face some of the same problems that Rivian will face in terms of their production.

However, Fisker has the biggest upside by far out of Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian over the next 3-5 years. With that being said, I am a bigger fan of the other companies. However, the current Fisker valuation is WAY better than the other three. It is a catch twenty-two.

If Fisker hit their 2025 projected numbers, you could see this stock easily over $75+ in three years.

For Fisker to be truly valued at $4.1Billion, each car would need to sell for $31,000 in 2025


When you invest in these companies, you have to remember that there is a huge risk. We have companies that are valued in the Billions that haven’t even put out a product yet. However, if you choose the right company at the right price, you could make a solid return.

I hope everyone has a safe New Years Eve!

Stay Hungry, Stay Long

Matt Allen


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