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- 👉 Cloud Winners Paid, CapEx Spenders Punished
👉 Cloud Winners Paid, CapEx Spenders Punished
Amazon, Apple, Microsoft
👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:
Key Earnings Announcements:
Amazon’s AI business eclipsed a multi-billion-dollar run rate.
Microsoft remaining performance obligations grew to $678 billion.
Apple generated a June-quarter record in operating cash flow.
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Situational Awareness got margin-called and sold the bulk of its public book to Citadel.
OpenAI and Anthropic are both circling ~$1 trillion valuations.
Economic Updates:
Warsh held rates steady; 30-year Treasury yields hit 20-year highs.
Q2 GDP came in at +1.5%, below expectations.
June PCE fell -0.1% MoM, the first monthly decline since April 2020.
Let’s dive right in!

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:
Amazon’s AI business eclipsed a multi-billion-dollar run rate, Microsoft remaining performance obligations grew to $678 billion, and Apple generated a June-quarter record in operating cash flow.
Amazon (AMZN)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $162.5 billion, an increase of +11% YoY
Operating Income: $18.25 billion, an increase of +35% YoY
Profits: $15.5 billion, an increase of +43% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
"We are continuing to lower our cost to serve in our fulfillment network while simultaneously increasing delivery speeds for Prime members. In AWS, we are seeing strong demand as companies transition their workloads to the cloud and leverage our generative AI capabilities, prompting us to meaningfully increase our capital investments to support this long-term structural growth."
My Takeaway
Couldn’t be a happier shareholder! Amazon reported stellar earnings characterized by massive expansion in their operating profits. This was mainly driven by margin expansion within their AWS and North America retail segments.
AWS revenue grew 19% year-over-year to $29.5 billion, generating $10.8 billion in operating income at a 36.6% operating margin. The North America retail segment posted a 9.5% revenue increase to $96.3 billion, with operating income improving to $5.8 billion. The International retail segment maintained its profitability, reporting an operating income of $1.7 billion on $36.7 billion in revenue. Their advertising services division continued its strong trajectory, with revenue growing 22% to $14.8 billion, aided by sponsored placements and the scaling of Prime Video advertisements.
Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $17.5 billion. Management indicated that this elevated spending is directed toward expanding data center infrastructure and acquiring the necessary computing hardware to support generative artificial intelligence workloads.
CEO Andy Jassy focused on the acceleration of AWS and the structural improvements within the retail fulfillment network. The executive team emphasized that generative AI has evolved into a multi-billion-dollar run-rate business within AWS, driven by enterprise adoption of Amazon Bedrock and proprietary silicon. Management also highlighted that the regionalization of the U.S. fulfillment network continues to yield lower transportation costs and faster delivery speeds, directly contributing to the margin expansion in the North America segment.
Looking ahead, management guided to $157.5 billion in revenue next quarter, growth of about 10%. Management also expects $16.5 billion in operating income next quarter.
Very long AMZN.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $90.0 billion, an increase of +18% YoY
Operating Income: $40.6 billion, an increase of +18% YoY
Profits: $35.8 billion, an increase of +31% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens into business results. This year, Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats, reflecting the confidence customers are placing in us to power their AI transformation."
My Takeaway
Microsoft also reported a stellar quarter, exceeding Wall Street’s expectations due to continued adoption of their enterprise AI product.
The Intelligent Cloud division served as the primary growth engine, generating $39.3 billion in revenue (+32%). Within this segment, Azure and other cloud services grew 43%, driven by enterprise AI deployments. The Productivity and Business Processes segment posted $37.8 billion in revenue, a 14% increase, boosted by a 14% reported growth in Microsoft 365 Commercial and a 13% increase in Dynamics 365. Conversely, the More Personal Computing segment experienced a slight contraction, with revenue falling 4% to $12.9 billion, weighed down by a 7% decline in Windows OEM and Devices.
Microsoft's quarter was bolstered by a massive expansion in its commercial remaining performance obligation, which grew 84% to $678 billion, providing deep visibility into future contracted revenue. The company also recorded a $3.2 billion gain from its investment in Anthropic, which aided GAAP profitability. Furthermore, management opted to hold its AI capital expenditure forecast steady, signaling operational discipline amidst the broader industry's aggressive infrastructure buildout.
CEO Satya Nadella focused on the tangible monetization of the company's artificial intelligence investments. The executive team highlighted two major milestones: Azure surpassed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats. Management emphasized that AI has transitioned from an experimental phase into a foundational technology layer, with organizations actively paying to deploy these tools across their data and workflows.
Looking ahead, management guided to $90 billion in revenue next quarter, representing +17% growth YoY.
Long MSFT.
Apple (AAPL)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $109.4 billion, an increase of +16% YoY
Operating Income: $35.7 billion, an increase of +27% YoY
Profits: $29.8 billion, an increase of +27% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“We are very pleased with our record business performance during the quarter, which set new June quarter records for both EPS and operating cash flow. Our installed base of active devices also reached a new all-time high across all major product categories and geographic segments."
My Takeaway
Apple delivered a strong quarter catalyzed by double-digit growth in their iPhone and Mac product lines.
iPhone revenue reached $54.25 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year. Mac revenue experienced 29% growth to $10.6 billion, while iPad revenue declined by 6% to $6.2 billion. The Greater China region rebounded sharply, posting $18.8 billion in revenue, a 22% increase. Conversely, the Services division, while growing 12% year-over-year to $30.7 billion, fell short of the $31.22 billion consensus estimate. The company also announced a major leadership transition, confirming that John Ternus, the current Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, will succeed Tim Cook as CEO on September 1, 2026.
Apple generated a June-quarter record of $34.4 billion in operating cash flow. The company maintained its capital return program, declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $0.27 per share. Management noted that the $0.11 per share benefit from the tariff refund provided a one-time lift to the bottom line, meaning core operational earnings were effectively in line with Wall Street projections rather than a substantial outperformance.
Management focused on the hardware resurgence and the impending leadership change. The executive team emphasized that the installed base of active devices reached a new all-time high across all product categories. However, the tone shifted when addressing the global supply chain. Management warned that a severe shortage of memory chips and rising artificial intelligence computing costs are creating a highly constrained supply environment, which is expected to limit output and pressure costs into the upcoming quarter.
Looking ahead, Apple provided cautious guidance for the third quarter. The company expects revenue growth of +10%, absorbing a 2.5% foreign exchange headwind. Management also expects next quarter’s gross margin to decline to about 48% — reflecting the elevated memory and component costs across the manufacturing supply chain.
Long AAPL.

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Situational Awareness got margin-called and sold the bulk of its public book to Citadel, and OpenAI and Anthropic are both circling ~$1 trillion valuations.
Situational Awareness Gets Margin-Called

The biggest story on Wall Street this week wasn’t an earnings print. It was a hedge fund blowup. Situational Awareness — the $24 billion AI-focused fund founded by 25-year-old former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner — got hit with margin calls on Wednesday and, by Thursday morning, was unwinding the bulk of its public portfolio.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel stepped in and bought most of the book at a discount. The Journal reported the fund’s AI-heavy portfolio was down roughly 67% for the month. In a note to clients, the firm reportedly wrote, “We let you down this month.”
Situational was long AI infrastructure (SK Hynix, Micron, memory names) and short the software companies most exposed to AI disruption (Adobe was one of the big names). For weeks the trade went against them: Micron sank ~28% from July 1 to July 29 while Adobe rallied ~25%. When the brokers pulled the plug and forced the unwind, both trades violently reversed. Micron ripped +18.4% Thursday. Adobe fell 5.9%.
Situational didn’t sell its private book. It kept its ~$3.5 billion stake in Anthropic. The fund survives, and its single best asset is still on the balance sheet. But the message to the market is loud: leverage was doing more work in this AI trade than anyone realized, and the fastest way to reprice AI-adjacent stocks is not a data point — it’s a margin call.
“This is how you find out what was fundamentals and what was leverage. When one $24 billion fund can move Micron 18% in a day just by being forced to cover, it tells you the pain of the last month was mostly technical — and the AI trade may finally have a bottom.”
OpenAI Runs at a Trillion-Dollar Valuation

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