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👉 Diesel Just Hit an All-Time High of $6.31 a Gallon

Lennar, Dave & Buster's, Vera Bradley

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

  • Lennar’s new orders fell 9% as mortgage rates crossed 7%.

  • Dave & Buster’s swung to a $12.5 million loss.

  • Vera Bradley’s comparable sales grew 9.2%.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

  • Diesel just hit an all-time high of $6.31 a gallon.

  • The SEC cleared the way for tokenized stocks.

  • The Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high.

Economic Updates:

  • The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023.

  • Retail sales rose 1.2% in a single month.

Let’s dive right in!

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Lennar’s new orders fell 9% as mortgage rates crossed 7%, Dave & Buster’s swung to a $12.5 million loss, and Vera Bradley’s comparable sales grew 9.2%.

  • Lennar (LEN)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $8.0 billion, compared to $8.8 billion last year

Operating Income: $387.1 million, compared to $790.7 million last year

Profits: $283.9 million, compared to $591.0 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“Our third quarter 2026 results reflect consistent focus on our operating strategy of maintaining volume and production while navigating a challenging economic environment. While our earnings of $1.19 per share were below expectations, they reflect the nature of the environment in which we are operating, which has deteriorated since our last earnings call. Against that backdrop, our team adhered to our strategy of leveraging consistent volume in order to drive costs lower. We delivered 20,840 homes, within our guidance of 20,500 to 21,500, generated 20,879 new orders and produced total revenues of $8.0 billion.”

My Takeaway

Lennar reported a difficult quarter as higher mortgage rates and deteriorating affordability continued to pressure homebuyer demand. Revenue declined to $8.05 billion as home deliveries fell 3% to 20,840 and the average selling price declined to $372,000 from $383,000 last year.

Homebuilding operating earnings declined to $502.0 million as gross margin on home sales fell to 15.8% from 17.5% last year. Lennar continued using aggressive incentives to maintain its sales pace, with incentives averaging roughly 12% of the selling price. New orders declined 9% to 20,879 homes, while backlog ended the quarter at 16,857 homes worth $6.3 billion.

Management emphasized that the company is prioritizing volume and affordability rather than waiting for housing conditions to improve. Lennar's construction cost per square foot declined another 6% YoY and is now 14% below its fourth-quarter 2023 baseline, while cycle times improved to a record 116 days. The company also reduced completed unsold inventory to 1.8 homes per community, demonstrating that its lower-price and incentive strategy is helping prevent inventory from building despite weaker demand.

CEO Stuart Miller said rising interest rates, persistent inflation and declining consumer confidence made the housing environment more difficult than management anticipated entering the quarter. The executive team also highlighted growing competition from the resale market as existing homeowners increasingly become willing to cut prices, while continuing to argue that the country's structural housing shortage should support longer-term demand.

Looking ahead, management expects fourth-quarter deliveries between 22,000 and 23,000 homes with gross margins between 15.5% and 16.0%. Lennar also lowered its full-year 2026 delivery target to approximately 80,000 to 81,000 homes, down from its previous expectation of 82,000 to 83,000, reflecting continued pressure from mortgage rates and worsening market conditions.

No position.

  • Dave & Busters (PLAY)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $544.1 million, compared to $557.4 million last year

Operating Income: $19.4 million, compared to $53.0 million last year

Net Loss: $12.5 million, compared to net income of $11.4 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“We are energized by the obvious, actionable, and enormous opportunities ahead for Dave & Buster’s and Main Event. Our Back-to-Basics strategy is gaining momentum with enhanced executional urgency. We are experiencing ongoing growth in food and beverage sales as well as in Special Events sales. The same store sales of our remodels continue to outperform the system. Further, we improved overall same store sales in July, and saw continued improvement in overall same store sales during the third quarter to date.”

My Takeaway

Dave & Buster’s reported another challenging quarter. Comparable store sales declined 2.9%, improving from a 5.4% decline in the first quarter, while July comps improved further to -1.6% compared to -5.0% in June.

Entertainment remained the primary weakness, with revenue declining 9% YoY to $332.6 million. Conversely, food and beverage revenue increased 10% to $211.5 million, with comparable F&B sales growing 7.6%. Management said food and beverage has now posted positive comps for five consecutive quarters, helped by the return to a more proven menu and better execution of its Eat & Play Combo, while special events sales have grown for seven consecutive quarters.

Management focused heavily on rebuilding relevance inside the arcade. Dave & Buster’s has launched 10 new games and attractions this year, while internal research found that more than 70% of guests would visit more frequently if they knew about new games or activities. The company’s remodel program also continues to outperform the broader system, with six Dave & Buster’s locations remodeled year-to-date and two more planned before year-end.

Profitability remains the biggest challenge. Adjusted EBITDA declined to $98.9 million from $129.7 million last year as weaker same-store sales and higher costs pressured margins. Management has already identified $15.0 million in annualized cost savings and is targeting at least twice that amount, while slowing new-store development and prioritizing remodels, games, technology, free cash flow and debt reduction. Adjusted free cash flow improved to positive $19.5 million year-to-date from negative $36.5 million last year.

Looking ahead, management did not provide formal quarterly revenue or earnings guidance, but said third-quarter same-store sales trends have continued improving and expects same-store sales, revenue and EBITDA to return to growth in the near term.

No position.

  • Vera Bradley (VRA)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $71.6 million, an increase of +1% YoY

Operating Income: $4.2 million, compared to an operating loss of $4.6 million last year

Profits: $4.5 million, compared to a net loss of $4.7 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“I’m pleased to report that our second quarter results reflect continued momentum in our transformation. This marked our second consecutive quarter of overall revenue growth, with total revenue up 1.1% versus the prior year. The underlying health of our business continued to strengthen across our direct channels, margin structure, and balance sheet. Our direct segment delivered revenue growth of 8%, our fifth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement, with comparable sales up 9.2% for the quarter, our second consecutive quarter of positive comparable results.”

My Takeaway

Vera Bradley reported its second consecutive quarter of revenue growth as its ongoing Project Sunshine turnaround continued gaining traction.

The Direct segment, which represents more than 90% of the business, was the clear bright spot. Revenue increased 8% to $65.4 million and comparable sales climbed 9.2%, with growth across both full-price and outlet channels. Conversely, Indirect revenue declined 39% to $6.3 million, primarily reflecting intentional changes to its marketplace strategy and a reduction in liquidation sales rather than weakness across its core wholesale partners.

Management highlighted stronger back-to-school demand as product and marketing changes began resonating with customers. Collaborations including Hello Kitty, Winnie the Pooh and Star Wars performed well, while the return of heritage prints and iconic styles helped re-engage existing customers. Vera Bradley has also moved beyond the halfway point in clearing legacy inventory, with total inventory declining 28% YoY to $69.3 million.

Profitability improved substantially, although the headline margin expansion received a meaningful boost from $7.7 million in tariff refunds. Reported gross margin increased to 59.8% from 50.1% last year, but excluding those refunds, gross margin improved by just over 40 basis points. Management pointed to better assortment planning, more disciplined promotions and stronger product sell-through as evidence that the underlying economics of the turnaround are improving.

Looking ahead, management reiterated full-year revenue guidance between $255.0 million and $270.0 million and continues to expect its non-GAAP operating loss to improve by at least 50% YoY. The company ended the quarter with $34.2 million in cash, no debt and improving momentum entering the important holiday season.

No position.

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Diesel just hit an all-time high, the SEC cleared the way for tokenized stocks, the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high.

  • Diesel Just Hit an All-Time High

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after Iran-backed drone attacks launched from Iraq, and WTI settled at $105.83 on Monday, up 4.4% and its highest close since May 19. Diesel followed. AAA put the national average at an all-time high of roughly $6.31 a gallon on Wednesday, more than 70% above a year ago, while gasoline passed $4.32, up 6% in a month and 36% in a year. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC the outage would be measured in days; Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said the photographs suggest months.

Freight absorbed the hit first. J.B. Hunt fell more than 13% on Wednesday, one of its worst sessions since the company went public in 1983, after its finance chief said fuel costs would cut third-quarter earnings 5% to 10% from the second, and the Dow Transports dropped 3%. Norfolk Southern’s commercial chief said he was seeing $8 diesel in California. Transportation moves the groceries, so this is a consumer price story on a delay.

“We have seen some of the most radical and abnormal swings in fuel prices that I think we’ve ever seen.”

— Brad Delco, Chief Financial Officer, J.B. Hunt
  • The SEC Cleared the Way for Tokenized Stocks

    Eduardo Munoz | Reuters

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