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  • 👉 Markets Crack as War Escalates, Consumers Pull Back

👉 Markets Crack as War Escalates, Consumers Pull Back

ChatGPT, Cintas, Netflix

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

  • Braze authorized a $100M share repurchase plan.

  • Ondas Holdings reported a $68M backlog for their drone technology.

  • Cintas announced their $5.5B acquisition of UniFirst Corporation.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

  • The regional war deepens as Houthis enter the fight, U.S. deploys more troops.

  • Netflix leans into live events while raising prices.

  • ChatGPT advertising pilot moves slowly despite high demand.

Economic Updates:

  • Consumer sentiment drops as inflation outlook worsens.

  • The labor market stabilizes but lacks momentum.

👉 Portfolio Updates

If you’re a premium subscriber and have been joining the monthly livestreams, this decline in the major indices shouldn’t surprise you. We began positioning ourselves for this back in January while they were at all-time highs — and do not yet believe the selling is over.

During the covid-induced bubble we experienced in 2020 and 2021, the most speculative high-beta names experienced their blow-off tops in February 2021 — roughly 10 months before the major indices began to roll over. The ARKK ETF is a wonderful illustration of this. By the time the major indices rolled over in December 2021 / January 2022 — ARKK (alongside many other high-beta names) was down -40%, with many names inside the ETF down -80% or more from recent all-time highs.

In our December livestream I shared the observation that many of the high-beta names we saw explode in 2025 (space exploration, nuclear energy, quantum computing) had experienced their blow-off tops in October and have yet to put in new all-time highs — telling me these names might not be in durable uptrends anymore. I even encouraged folks to consider allocating 2-4% of their own portfolios to $600 strike price March 2026 puts on QQQ.

In our January livestream I confirmed the blow-off tops were reality and that these high beta names were no longer in durable uptrends. While the major indices were at all-time highs we encouraged our premium subscribers to exercise caution as the indices had been “trading sideways” for months and were starting to show a “rounded top” pattern.

In our February livestream I shared my profit-taking on crypto and cash raising — I also talked about my $50K position in energy (which has done very well, up about +20% while the indices continue to fall). In our March livestream I shared my perspective as to when we should consider trying to buy the “bottom.” Positioning isn’t washed out yet, therefore I believe there could be more downside ahead — so we’re staying patient.

We’ll continue to exercise caution, dollar cost average into long-term names, and deploy capital toward asymmetric opportunities if they present themselves.

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👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Braze authorized a $100M share repurchase plan, Ondas Holdings reported a $68M backlog for their drone technology, and Cintas announced their $5.5B acquisition of UniFirst Corporation.

  • Braze (BRZE)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $205.2 million, an increase of +28% YoY

Operating Loss: -$28.2 million, compared to -$40.8 million last year

Net Loss: -$31.6 million, compared to -$18.9 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“Today, we reported outstanding fourth quarter results that further validate our product leadership, go-to-market approach, and financial strategy. In Q4, we generated $205 million of revenue, up 28% year-over-year and 8% from the prior quarter. Organic revenue growth accelerated year-over-year for the third straight quarter while we continued to drive operating efficiency in our business.”

My Takeaway

Braze reported a solid end to its fiscal 2026, characterized by steady revenue growth and notable traction within its enterprise customer base. The company managed to narrow its operating loss by -31% to -$28.2 million, showing that sales and marketing efficiencies are moving the needle.

The enterprise segment was the clear growth driver. The number of customers contributing over $500,000 in ARR grew by 35%, and this cohort now represents nearly two-thirds of the company's total recurring revenue. Total bookings grew by more than +50% YoY, driving the company's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) past the $1 billion mark — providing strong revenue visibility for the year ahead.

Braze generated $13.9 million in free cash flow during the quarter. This strong free cash flow, paired with $416M of liquidity on their balance sheet, allowed managed to authorize a $100M share repurchase program. Management emphasized that the introduction of their new BrazeAI suite is fundamentally changing how customers interact with the platform. They also pointed out that the current macroeconomic environment is actually benefiting Braze, as large brands look to consolidate their marketing vendors and standardize their operations on a single, comprehensive platform.

Looking ahead, Braze guided to $886.5M in revenue for 2026, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 8%.

No position.

  • Ondas Holdings (ONDS)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $30.1 million, an increase of +629% YoY

Operating Loss: -$23.4 million, compared to -$8.2 million last year

Net Loss: -$101.0 million, compared to -$10.3 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

"Our substantial revenue growth in Q4 underscores the strength of our core platforms and strategic acquisitions. We remain focused on scaling our operations and integrating recent acquisitions to drive future profitability. When you look at Ondas today, what you're really seeing is a company where strategy is translating into execution, is building the platform, and the platform is driving financial outcomes."

My Takeaway

Ondas showcased clear top-line progress as its autonomous systems division gained commercial traction. While the market digested a widened GAAP net loss, the underlying driver was an $82.2 million non-cash accounting charge related to warrants, alongside increased operational spending to support ongoing acquisitions. Despite these bottom-line metrics, the company achieved a gross margin of 42%, up from 21%, indicating that unit economics are improving as manufacturing volume scales.

The company successfully delivered on existing contracts for its Iron Drone and Optimus systems while actively acquiring complementary businesses. By securing deals with defense technology firms like Mistral and BIRD Aerosystems, Ondas is transitioning into an integrated defense contractor capable of providing unified aerial and ground intelligence platforms.

After closing 2025 with roughly $594 million in cash, Ondas raised nearly $1 billion in early 2026. This capitalization provides the necessary liquidity to fund their recent acquisitions and absorb the elevated operating expenses required to scale a global hardware and software supply chain.

Management emphasized that the company's strategy of building a localized manufacturing presence, such as their new joint venture in Europe, is essential for meeting regional compliance and scaling production. Management also noted that their focus is now firmly on executing the integration of their acquired entities to realize projected synergies.

Looking ahead, Ondas guided to $375M in 2026 revenue, supported by their $68M backlog and anticipated contributions from newly acquired businesses.

Long ONDS.

  • Cintas (CTAS)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $2.84 billion, an increase of +9% YoY

Operating Income: $659.9 million, an increase of +8% YoY

Profits: $502.5 million, an increase of +8% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

We delivered another successful quarter with record revenues and strong operating margins. Our 8.2% organic growth and all-time high gross margins in each of our three route-based businesses reflect the outstanding performance of our employee-partners and the clear impact of our investments in technology, capacity and talent. These results continue to showcase the strength and resilience of Cintas' value proposition.

My Takeaway

The uniform rental and facility services provider beat consensus estimates and subsequently raised its full-year guidance. The most notable development, however, was the announcement of a $5.5 billion agreement to acquire UniFirst Corporation, a move that will significantly consolidate the uniform services market and increase the company's route density.

It is worth noting that the prior year's operating income included a $15.0 million gain from an asset sale; excluding this one-time item, the underlying operating income growth would have been closer to 11%. Organic revenue growth remained steady at 8.2%. The company reported high retention rates and successful cross-selling efforts across its existing customer base, maintaining consistent pricing power.

The company achieved an all-time high gross margin of 51.0%, an increase of 40 basis points from the prior year. This margin expansion reflects management's disciplined approach to cost control and technology investments. Furthermore, Cintas maintained its commitment to shareholder returns, deploying $1.45 billion toward dividends and share repurchases during the first nine months of the fiscal year.

Management emphasized the operational execution of the employee-partners and the structural benefits of their technology investments, which directly supported the margin expansion. The executive team also expressed optimism regarding the UniFirst merger, noting that while there will be near-term transaction costs, the long-term value creation potential is clear.

Looking ahead, Cintas raised their 2026 guidance — now expecting $11.3 billion in revenue, with $4.90 in EPS.

I sold this position in 2025, but with this recent decline I would happily reopen it and start nibbling.

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Wartime updates, Netflix event and pricing changes, and ChatGPT advertising demand.

  • Regional War Deepens as Houthis Enter Fight, US Deploys More Troops

The Middle East conflict entered a dangerous new phase as the Houthis officially joined the war, U.S. reinforcements arrived in the region, and strikes continued across Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Lebanon. Iran and its allies are widening the battlefield, while the U.S. and Israel appear to be increasing military pressure with little sign of an immediate diplomatic breakthrough.

The biggest market implication remains energy. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill, Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude through its East-West pipeline, and fears are rising that the Houthis could threaten Red Sea shipping routes as well. That combination is worsening what has already become a major global oil supply shock.

Diplomatic activity is picking up, with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt discussing de-escalation, but there is still no clear path to talks between Washington and Tehran. Iran is demanding reparations, future security guarantees, and some control over Hormuz, while the U.S. continues pressing for concessions on nuclear facilities and missiles. For markets, this remains a geopolitical story with real macro consequences: higher oil, disrupted trade, and a growing risk that the conflict drags on longer than investors had hoped.

“What the Iranians are really doing is waging war on the world economy… They’re trying to turn the Strait of Hormuz — an international waterway — into, basically, an Iranian canal that they can control and extract money from.”

— Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global

  • Netflix Leans Into Live Events While Raising Prices

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