• GRIT
  • Posts
  • 👉 Nvidia Expects ONE TRILLION of Chip Orders

👉 Nvidia Expects ONE TRILLION of Chip Orders

Continued War, Fed Updates, Micron

Together with The Daily Upside 

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

  • Lululemon expects $380M in tariff-related expenses in 2026.

  • Micron Technologies raised their quarterly dividend by +30%.

  • FedEx absorbed $120M in restructuring charged.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

  • The Fed holds rates steady as the Iran war clouds the outlook.

  • Oil surges past $112 after Iran knocks out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity.

  • Nvidia's GTC keynote projects $1 trillion in AI chip orders through 2027.

Economic Updates:

  • Jobless claims dropped amid a shaky market.

  • Inflation for producers appears to be on the rise.

👉 Together with The Daily Upside

Financial headlines can feel overwhelming. Get calm, clear insights—without the fear—from The Daily Upside.

Some call it the closest thing to earning your MBA in Cambridge. Join 1M subscribers who trust The Daily Upside.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Lululemon expects $380M in tariff-related expenses in 2026, Micron Technologies raised their quarterly dividend by +30%, and FedEx absorbed $120M in restructuring charged.

  • Lululemon (LULU)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $3.64 billion, an increase of +1% YoY

Operating Income: $812.3 million, compared to $1.0 billion last year

Profits: $586.9 million, compared to $749.0 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“We are pleased to achieve fourth quarter revenue and EPS results ahead of our expectations. As we begin our new fiscal year, we are focused on executing on our action plan, offering new and differentiated products to our guests, and elevating their experiences with lululemon. Driving improvement in our full-price sales over the course of 2026 is also a key priority, particularly in North America.”

My Takeaway

Lululemon reported its Q4 results with a mix of international growth and domestic challenges. The company managed to squeak out a +1% increase in revenue (supported by their strength in China) while profitability showed clear signs of stress. Gross profit margins contracted due to a combination of higher markdowns to move inventory and notable tariff-related expenses.

The international segment remains the primary growth driver, with Mainland China revenue up +24%. The core Americas segment saw a 4% decline in revenue, underscoring the ongoing need to re-engage U.S. consumers and reduce reliance on discounting. Inventory levels rose +21%.

The company actively returned capital to shareholders, repurchasing nearly $270 million in stock during the quarter. Management detailed the financial impact of tariffs, which cost the company $275 million in gross expenses in 2025 and are projected to reach $380 million in 2026.

Looking ahead, their guidance reflects a cautious 2026 approach — only projecting +2-4% revenue growth and an expected decline in earnings per share.

No position, but if you’re a value investor / someone who believes in a turnaround story, Lululemon could be your next target.

  • Micron Technologies (MU)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $23.9 billion, an increase of +196% YoY

Operating Income: $16.1 billion, an increase of +810% YoY

Profits: $13.8 billion, an increase of +771% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Micron set new records across revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow in fiscal Q2, driven by a strong demand environment, tight industry supply, and our strong execution, and we expect significant records again in fiscal Q3.

In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers, and we are investing in our global manufacturing footprint to support their growing demand. Reflecting confidence in the sustained strength of our business, our board has approved a 30% increase in our quarterly dividend.”

My Takeaway

Micron exceeded Wall Street’s expectations across all metrics — undermined by a market-wide sell off pulling the stock down with it. The DRAM segment was the primary growth driver, generating $18.8 billion. The company's GAAP gross margin expanded from 36.8% last year to 74.4% this quarter, driven by significant quarter-over-quarter pricing increases.

The company noted that data center demand for both DRAM and NAND is expected to consume over half of the industry's total addressable market in 2026. Micron also began volume shipments of its HBM4 memory tailored for Nvidia's newest architectures, establishing its position in the high-bandwidth memory supply chain.

Micron generated $6.9 billion in adjusted free cash flow. This liquidity enabled the board to approve a 30% increase in the quarterly dividend and pay down $1.6 billion in debt.

Management noted that AI has recast memory from a commodity to a strategic asset. The company is actively signing multi-year strategic agreements with customers to secure long-term visibility. Looking ahead, Micron guided for an increase in revenue and margins.

No position, as I’m not going to chase this one.

  • FedEx (FDX)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $24.0 billion, an increase of +8% YoY

Operating Income: $1.4 billion, an increase of +5% YoY

Profits: $1.1 billion, an increase of +16% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Team FedEx delivered another quarter of strong financial results and excellent service for our customers, powered by disciplined operational execution, the resilience of our global network, and the accelerating impact of our advanced digital solutions. We are the industrial network that powers the global economy, and our network and digital transformation is enabling us to make supply chains smarter for everyone.”

My Takeaway

FedEx delivered solid quarterly results on the top and bottom lines. The company delivered notable improvements within its core package delivery business, benefiting from better pricing yields and the ongoing integration of its Express and Ground networks. The fact that the company managed to grow operating income while absorbing $120 million in costs from the MD-11 fleet grounding and broader restructuring charges indicates that its core pricing and volume strategies are effective.

The Federal Express segment was the primary driver of growth, posting a 10% increase in revenue. This contrasts with the FedEx Freight segment, which saw a 5% revenue decline as it navigated lower shipment volumes and a softer Less-Than-Truckload market. Strategically, the company is preparing for significant structural changes, keeping the FedEx Freight spin-off on track for June 2026 and announcing a joint effort to take European locker network InPost private to bolster its international e-commerce capabilities.

Management highlighted that improved forecasting and early network integration efforts led to their most profitable peak season. Executives also addressed the divergence between their positive volume growth and the broader freight industry's struggles, crediting long-term commercial strategies focused on profitable market share expansion in both the US and Europe.

Looking ahead, FedEx guided to +6% revenue growth and higher profits due to cost-cutting initiatives and pricing discipline.

No position.

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The Fed holds rates steady as the Iran war clouds the outlook, oil surges past $112 after Iran knocks out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity, and Nvidia's GTC keynote projects $1 trillion in AI chip orders through 2027.

  • Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Only One Cut This Year as War and Inflation Collide

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75% on Wednesday — the second consecutive pause — as policymakers navigate a collision between sticky inflation, a softening labor market, and the economic fallout from the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran. The vote was 11-1, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting again in favor of a quarter-point cut.

The updated dot plot showed the median FOMC member still expects one rate cut this year and another in 2027, but seven of 19 participants now see no cuts at all in 2026 — one more than in December. Officials raised their inflation forecast, projecting headline and core PCE at 2.7% for the year, while nudging GDP growth up to 2.4%. Unemployment expectations held at 4.4%, even after February's payrolls report showed employers cutting 92,000 jobs — with private-sector job creation effectively hitting zero once you adjust for margin of error.

Chair Powell pushed back on stagflation comparisons during the press conference, noting that "when we use the term stagflation, I always have to point out that that was a 1970s term, at a time when unemployment was in double figures and inflation was really high. That's not the situation we're in." But he conceded the Fed faces persistent "tension between the goals" — inflation stuck above target while the labor market quietly deteriorates.

For markets, the Fed's message was clear: don't expect help anytime soon. The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time in over 200 sessions. With oil above $100, gasoline at $3.91 per gallon nationally, and rate cut expectations pushed to one at most this year, the macro backdrop heading into Q2 is the most challenging since the pandemic.

"Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. It is too soon to know the full impact of the conflict on the U.S. economy."

— Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve
  • Oil Surges Past $112 as Iran Strikes Knock Out 17% of Qatar’s LNG Capacity

Subscribe to GRIT Premium to read the rest.

Become a paying subscriber of GRIT Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

  • • WEEK IN REVIEW: Full access to the internet's best recap of the markets, every single week. This includes comprehensive earnings breakdowns, portfolio updates, and more. This is the perfect compliment to the "Investing Week Ahead" post that you already receive at the beginning of each week.
  • • MONTHLY LIVESTREAMS: Join Austin Hankwitz live every month to dive deep into his portfolio, explore the latest trends, discuss any changes he’s making, and cover market-moving topics.
  • • PORTFOLIO ACCESS – Austin Hankwitz, Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, and other professional / billionaire investor portfolios.
  • • MONTHLY STOCK DEEP DIVES – Comprehensive stock analysis on an individual ticker, delivered at the end of each month.
  • • RESOURCES – A wide variety of investment resources for both beginners and advanced investors to accelerate your portfolio.