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- 👉 The Investing Week Ahead: 10/02/23
👉 The Investing Week Ahead: 10/02/23
Unrealized investment losses...
Welcome to your new week.
Before we get started, we want to quickly callout all of the STRIKES that are in motion or already happening around the country.
In case you weren’t aware…
The UAW (auto workers) are striking over pay and benefits — 25,000+ workers
The Culinary Workers Union and Bartenders Union in Nevada are nearing a strike over pay and worker rights — 60,000+ workers
CVS workers are walking out of their jobs in protest of work conditions — 10+ pharmacies temporarily closed
Kaiser Permanente workers (healthcare) are threatening a strike to begin this week for a pay increase, improved medical plans, and addressing their short-staffing crisis — 75,000+ workers
The Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild have partially resumed normal operations, but still have a ways to go on validating their requests for wage increases and work protections — 171,000+ workers
The Associate of Professional Flight Attendants (APFA) continues to stand behind a possible strike on behalf of American Airlines flight attendants. They want increased pay, profit sharing, benefits, more vacation time, and improved retirement plans — 26,000+ workers
These serve as additional examples of the economy facing way too many issues all at once. As rates remain high, inflationary pressures persist, student loan payments resume, and more — the average American is feeling insufficient despite working hard at their jobs.
From an investing & markets perspective — are the negative productivity impacts that dozens of companies will continue to face from striking priced in?
From an economic perspective — how much of a productivity impact can the US expect to lose from all of these disruptions?
Something to keep an eye on.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Food and Bev companies will give us some insight into inflationary pressures and American consumerism.
Monday (10/2): N/A
Tuesday (10/3): Cal-Maine Foods, McCormick & Co., NovaGold
Wednesday (10/4): Acuity Brands, Helen of Troy, RMP International, Tilray
Thursday (10/5): Aehr Test Systems, Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands
Friday (10/6): N/A
What We’re Watching:
Conagra Brands’ last earnings report saw sales rise, but profits fall as inflation eased throughout the springtime.
The Chicago-based consumer packaged goods company said its profit fell 77% to $36.3 million in the quarter, missing the $284 million forecast from analysts polled by FactSet. Conagra said a brand impairment charge of $345 million ate into its profit in the quarter.
The last quarterly report of Constellation Brands highlighted double-digit net sales growth in its beer business, and outperformance of the high-end projections for its wine category.
In other words — people are boozing.
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Student loan payments resume for 40+ million Americans, Trucking employment is worth noting, and the unrealized investment losses of banks amounts to nearly 25% of total bank equity capital.
Student Loan Payments Are BACK
The pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments — affecting up to 40 million Americans — has ended, leading to concerns about its impact on households and the economy.
Economists are uncertain about the consequences due to the lack of precedent for such a long break from loan payments, but retailers and lenders are preparing for potentially slower activity as the year winds down.
Many borrowers are concerned about meeting expenses — with 70% planning to postpone major purchases and cut back on spending in areas like clothing, travel, and food.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau reports that more than 1 in 13 borrowers are currently behind on other payment obligations, adding to their financial stress.
“These borrowers might be unable to make payments on their student loans if they are already missing payments on their credit cards or auto loans.”
Indicator Watch: Trucking Employment
To be short — the trucking industry has been taking a big hit. Major media outlets hardly touched on the fact that Yellow Corp — the third-largest player in the “less-than-truckload” segment — went bankrupt at the end of the summer.
That’s 30,000+ jobs between laid-off drivers, dockworkers, dispatchers, and other personnel. When the trucking industry slides — there’s been a strong correlation to the United States economy sliding as well.
"The scope of August’s job loss implies that the BLS data collection that occurred in mid-August captured all terminated Yellow employees, although we cannot be certain. The Yellow shutdown clouds an analysis of the August trucking jobs data, but the rest of the industry apparently shed a significant number of jobs."
Banks’ Unrealized Investment Losses Are Piling Up
Unrealized losses on investment securities for banks are sustaining at high levels.
For Q2’23 — there are nearly $550 billion in unrealized losses. To put this in perspective, that’s nearly 25% of all banks’ equity capital.
“I expect unrealized losses to increase…. For us, solvency issues are less of a concern, but the amount of profitability is a concern.”
— Alexander Yokum, Banking Analyst at CFRA, an investment research firm
Major Economic Events:
The two primary measures of the manufacturing industry — the ISM PMI and the S&P PMI — were released early this morning. They revealed slight improvements, but an overall contracting manufacturing sector.
Monday (10/2): Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, S&P Manufacturing PMI, Speech by Fed Chair Powell
Tuesday (10/3): Job Openings
Wednesday (10/4): ADP Employment, Factory Orders, ISM Services, OPEC Meeting, S&P Services PMI
Thursday (10/5): US Trade Deficit
Friday (10/6): Consumer Credit, US Jobs Report (w/ Unemployment Rate)
What We’re Watching:
The S&P Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in September (Aug: 47.9) to signal only a marginal deterioration in operating conditions. Production expanded due to increased manufacturing employment as firms sought to broaden capacity.
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in September, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 49% — 1.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 47.6% recorded in August and its highest figure since November 2022 (49%).
This is the 11th month of contraction, but the third month of positive change. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the ISM Manufacturing PMI — two (the Production and Employment indexes) are in expansion territory, up from none in August, breaking a three-month streak of no such growth.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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