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š The Investing Week Ahead: 4/17/23
The largest ever real estate fund..?
Grab your pen, tell Siri to remind you, and call your mommaā¦
Itās tax day tomorrow.
In the spirit of one of the most annoying times of the year, see below for the most legendary letter ever written to the IRS from former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld:
Hereās your quick reminder that the Springtime Special ends soon. New subscribers can click below to get the lowest Rate of Return pricing that we will ever offer:
Letās quickly breakdown this week in the markets!
Key Earnings Announcements:
A crowded week of earnings is headlined by Tesla, Netflix, Taiwan Semiconductor, P&G, J&J, and more.
Monday (4/17): Charles Schwab, J.B. Hunt, M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial, State Street Corp
Tuesday (4/18): Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Ericsson, Goldman Sachs, Intuitive Surgical, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, Prologis, United Airlines, Western Alliance Bancorp
Wednesday (4/19): Abbott, Alcoa, Ally Financial, ASML, Baker Hughes, Citizens Financial Group, Discover, IBM, Lam Research, Morgan Stanley, Nasdaq, Tesla, U.S. Bancorp
Thursday (4/20): American Express, AT&T, Blackstone, CSX, DR Horton, Philip Morris, PPG Industries, Rite Aid, Seagate Technology, TSMC, Union Pacific
Friday (4/21): Autoliv, HCA Healthcare, P&G, Regions Bank, SAP, Schlumberger,
What Weāre Watching:
Below is an excerpt from Jamie Dimon during the JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earnings call last week. You may need to click the picture to read it clearly, but we encourage trying to keep tabs on what titans of the industry are saying.
Pinnacle, Bank of America, BNY Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, Morgan Stanley, and many more will give us a better overall outlook of the financials sector.
Weāre excited to see the earnings of one of the worldās most important companies ā Taiwan Semiconductor. Warren Buffett expressed a ādanger of seismic actionā for the company in an interviewā¦ and then seemed to try and back off from his original thought.
Buffett has recently sold billions in TSM stock and elected officials have been betting against the stock.
Check out this video from our friends at Quiver Quantitative.
Housing is a key theme for this week as youāll read below in the Major Economic Events section. We look forward to Blackstone hopefully speaking more about their newest real estate fund.
āBlackstone said that, anticipating changing macro trends, it has been shifting its portfolio away from assets facing "headwinds" such as traditional office and malls and is now approximately 80% concentrated in logistics, rental housing, hospitality, lab office and data hubs.
It said it is ready to take advantage of opportunities in its highest conviction sectors across the globe.ā ā CoStar
Keep in mind ā Blackstone is the largest property owner in the world.
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
China could be the new top dog, Crypto āAlt Coinsā look ready to make a move, and BlackRock has absurdly high expectations.
IMF Projects China as Top World Growth Source
We mentioned yesterday that the International Monetary Fund has a rather bleak outlook for the world economy. However, what could be more concerning is the high expectations they have for Chinese excellence.
China is projected to be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years ā with an expected growth contribution that is double the percentage of the United States.
The reason for concern is, of course, the rise of āBRICSā nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, & South Africa) over the G-7. There is currently a war going on for energy and currency domination. āBRICSā is trending upward.
Crypto āAlt Seasonā Call?
Nothing too big to report here, but one of our favorite follows in the crypto space ā Pentoshi ā believes an āAlt Seasonā could be arriving for crypto.
We may look to use a big move in crypto as an opportunity to reduce some exposure to the space. More to come on this in one of the upcoming Week in Review editions.
BlackRock (BLK) Seen Topping $15 Trillion in Five Years Time
We intentionally included an outdated chart above. This is from 2022, and itās lauding the fact that BlackRock surpassed $10 TRILLION in AUM during 2021.
Itās now 2023 ā and we have Morgan Stanley saying that BlackRock could hit $15 trillion in assets under management by 2028.
āBlackRockās scale, diversification, disciplined investments made across market cycles and efficient operations with focus on expenses should support continued organic growth and margin expansion.ā ā Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley Analyst
Major Economic Events:
Housing is in focus ā the Leading Economic Indicators and flash S&P PMI results rounding out the week.
Monday (4/17): Empire State Manufacturing, Home Builder Confidence Index, Speech by Richmond Fed President Barkin
Tuesday (4/18): Building Permits, Housing Starts, Speech by Fed Gov. Bowman
Wednesday (4/19): Fed Beige Book, Speech by NY Fed President Williams
Thursday (4/20): Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Speeches by Fed Gov. Bowman, Fed Gov. Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Mester, & Dallas Fed President Logan, U.S. Leading Economic Index
Friday (4/21): S&P Manufacturing PMI (flash), S&P Services PMI (flash), Speech by Fed Gov. Cook
What Weāre Watching:
Michael Gayed of the Lead-Lag Report thinks that housing is about to become a major deflationary force. Hereās a link to his thread about why the data this week is so important.
The picture shown above is a critical piece to his theory ā the number of homes for sale is significantly up from a year ago.
Housing prices have soared over the last 10 years or so because demand has far outweighed supply. Supply could be catching up now. Demand continues to fall with rising interest rates.
All else equal ā housing prices should begin to decline more across the country.
The Conference Boardās primary recession indicator continues to be firing warning shots. We find out if thereās a rebound in sight this week.
Below are the results from the most recent S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI releases":
SERVICES ā āRenewed rise in service sector new orders, but selling price inflation quickens again.ā
MANUFACTURING ā āManufacturing decline eased amid renewed rise in output in March.ā
Letās see where things land for the initial releases this week!
Events-Driven Winners:
Which stocks moved the most last week.
Our friends at LevelFields scrub through thousands of data points each week to determine how events impact stock prices.
If youāre starting your investing journey or are interested in buying T-bills yielding 5% or more, consider visiting Public.com.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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