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  • The Investing Week Ahead: 7/25/22

The Investing Week Ahead: 7/25/22

This most consequential 5-day period of the summer: 175 S&P 500 companies report earnings and we see if we're officially in a recession.

25 Jul

Welcome to the end of July.

We’re not sure how it came so quickly. While it’s not necessarily something that should be used for investing convictions, we love to occasionally look at macro trends that are historically tested (many decades of data). One of the simplest ones is the average percent change of the S&P 500 over the last 90+ years:

Does this mean that you should sell and come back in October? No, but the historical deceleration from July through September is absolutely worth noting. Of course if the barrage of earnings reports this week largely beat expectations, then the next few months may be smoother sailing. Bottom line – this is a colossal week for the market going forward. Read on for the things you all should be keeping an eye on.

The Investing Week Ahead — Too Long, Didn’t Read:

⚡ 175 companies report, led by Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, & Microsoft.

⚡ We find out if the U.S. has had two-straight quarters of negative GDP growth.

⚡ Waiting for consumer confidence & overall sentiment to see some relief.

Key Earnings Announcements:

The average earnings beat of companies that have already reported is 3.6% — well below the 8.8% five-year average (FactSet).

Monday (7/25): Cadence Design Systems, Infosys, Logitech, NXP Semiconductors, Philips, Squarespace

Tuesday (7/26): Alphabet, Chipotle, Coca-Cola, GE, GM, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Raytheon Technologies, UPS, Visa

Wednesday (7/27): Boeing, Etsy, Ford, Hilton, Humana, Meta, Qualcomm, ServiceNow, Shopify, Spotify, Teladoc Health, Waste Management

Thursday (7/28): Altria, Amazon, Apple, Hertz, Intel, Mastercard, Merck, Pfizer, Roku, Southwest Airlines, Tilray, Valero

Friday (7/29): Abbvie, AstraZeneca, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, ExxonMobil

What We’re Watching:

Investor Events:

Guns, Weed, and Web Services.

Monday (7/25):  Shareholder Vote for Obagi & Milk Makeup Going Public Via Waldencast Acq. Corp.

Tuesday (7/26):  Amazon Web Services Re:Inforce Conference, Senate Cannabis Decriminalization Meeting, Spirit Airlines Vote (Again) on Frontier Group Buyout

Wednesday (7/27):  House Committee Meets on Gun Manufacturer Practices & Profits, Shareholder Vote for Apexigen (Cancer Drugs) Going Public Via Brookline Capital Acq.

Thursday (7/28):  Charles Schwab Summer Business Update, Ford Expands Upon Q2 Earnings During Fireside Chat w/ BNP Paribas

Friday (7/29): N/A

What We’re Watching:

Being the biggest week of the summer for earnings reports, investor events are taking a backseat. We’ll be paying closest attention to the AWS conference and seeing if JetBlue can steal the Spirit Airlines merger deal from Frontier Group. If either of them end up merging with Spirit — it would immediately become the fifth-largest airline in the United States. It turns out investing into Spirit Airlines () at the turn of the new year would have been an incredible inflation hedge.

Major Economic Updates:

We find out this week if we’re officially in a recession, with the government’s definition being two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

Monday (7/25): Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tuesday (7/26): Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index

Wednesday (7/27): Durable Goods Orders, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference, Fed Funds Target Rate

Thursday (7/28): Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Friday (7/29): Consumer Spending, Disposable Income, Employment Cost Index, PCE Inflation Index, PCE Price Index, UMich Consumer Sentiment

What We’re Watching:

  1. Gross Domestic Pandemonium: After a cripplingly bad GDP report last quarter (well below expectations), analysts are on the edge of their seat for Thursday’s release. Consensus estimates have us narrowly avoiding a recession, with GDP growth of +0.3%. Our hunch is that it creeps negative — officially putting us in an economic recession. Let’s wait and find out!

  2. Summer in Michigan is Splendid: But that doesn’t mean that the UMich Sentiment Index is looking very pretty. The last two readings of the monthly survey for consumer confidence have been brutal. Considered a quality bellwether for the future state of the economy (specifically the retail space) — we want a good number here.

  3. Losing Confidence: Along a similar vein to the metric above, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) provides an indication of future developments of households’ consumption & saving, sentiment on the general economy, unemployment, and capability of savings. The U.S. usually prides itself on being ahead of the world average, but we’ve been well below it since early 2021.

Events Driven Winners:

What specific events are moving stocks the most?

Our friends at LevelFields scrub through thousands of data points each week to determine how events impact stock prices.

While you may not be familiar with some of these companies, check out the top two biggest movers of the entire last week — both from hiring new CEOs! It can often feel mundane following the c-suite activity of companies, but thankfully LevelFields makes it easy. We highly recommend checking out their site, joining their weekly mailing list, and using their incredible alerts!

If you’re starting your investing journey or want to change to a cleaner, social-focused investing platform, consider visiting Public.com.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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