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  • The Investing Week Ahead: 8/15/22

The Investing Week Ahead: 8/15/22

Michael Burry SOLD EVERYTHING and went all-in on ONE STOCK...

15 Aug

Fall is just around the corner.

And before college football kicks off in less than two weeks, we think it could be beneficial to update y’all on where we currently stand regarding a recession.

By reflecting back on our 15 Reasons for a Recession post — we can use this as a “heat check” on the progress that’s been made.

While we’re still very wary of the total debt balance, consumer credit, an inverted yield curve, and much more — there have been some improvements to important things like inflation, gas prices, and the supply chain.

The chart below from Charlie Bilello shows that global container freight rates have hit a 15-month low, down -46% from their peak:

However, keep in mind that this price is still 4x higher than pre-pandemic levels and the vast majority of the ‘15 Reasons’ still remain problematic (rising interest rates, inflation, layoffs, etc).

Unfortunately, even if inflation really did peak in June — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) wouldn’t reach the Fed’s 2% target any time soon. We’re not saying that you should sit on the sidelines, but it’s critical to remind you that this is likely to remain a stock-picker’s market and there’s probably going to be broader downside after this bear market rally concludes.

A massive update on this bear market rally as well as the markets in general is coming out tomorrow (8/16) afternoon. Read it!

The Investing Week Ahead — Too Long, Didn’t Read:

⚡ Walmart, Target, & Home Depot lead the way for a retail-filled earnings week.

⚡ Hedge funds reveal their cards.

⚡ Housing and jobs are top of mind as the FOMC meeting minutes get released.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Big box retailers face the fire after most of them have downwardly revised guidance throughout the summer.

Monday (8/15): Clear Secure, Compass, Tencent Music Entertainment, Weber, ZipRecruiter

Tuesday (8/16): Agilent Technologies, Home Depot, ON Holding AG, Sea Limited

Wednesday (8/17): Analog Devices, Bath & Body Works, Cisco, Krispy Kreme, Lowe’s, Synopsis, Target, TJ Maxx,

Thursday (8/18): Applied Materials, Bill.com, BJ’s, Estēe Lauder, Kohl’s, Ross

Friday (8/19): Foot Locker, John Deere

What We’re Watching:

Investor Events:

Michael Burry goes all-in on one stock with a market cap under $1B, single stock ETFs fool investors, and FuboTV has a shot at being acquired.

  • Hedge Fund 13F Filings: Today is the last day for hedge funds to report their holdings. We’ll report in the next Week in Review on a variety of major players to see what they’re buying and selling. Keep in mind that these are for the trailing quarter and many of the position changes can be 30-45 days delayed. Also… check out what Michael Burry did. We spoke about his concerns in yesterday’s post — now he has sold everything and gone all in on a company that invests in private prisons and mental health facilities. Wow. We’ll definitely look deeper into this and keep an eye out for a video being posted on it.

  • Single-Stock ETFs? What..?: If you weren’t aware, Wall Street has been pouring gasoline on the latest financial craze for trying to receive outsized returns. Throughout 2022, single-stock ETFs have grown exponentially in popularity — as they allow you to get short or leveraged exposure to the daily price moves of the underlying stocks. Some examples include the GraniteShares 1.25x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSL), GraniteShares 1x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSLI), GraniteShares 1.75x Long AAPL Daily ETF (AAPB), and the GraniteShares 1.5x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL). AXS Investments has launched / soon will launch single-stock ETFs of Boeing (BA), Salesforce (CRM), PayPal (PYPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Netflix (NFLX), and more. Please do not invest in these financial instruments unless you know what you’re doing. They focus purely on daily price moves and are nothing short of gambling.

  • FuboTV’s First-Ever Investor Day: There’s been rumors that FuboTV could be an acquisition target from MGM Resort’s BetMGM or FanDuel. Below shows the impressive growth of the streaming service:

Major Economic Updates:

The Fed has rocked the housing market, but the results continue to be less than ideal.

Monday (8/15): Empire State Manufacturing Index (bad results this morning), NAHB Home Builder's’ Index (eighth straight decline this morning)

Tuesday (8/16): Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production Index

Wednesday (8/17): Business Inventories, Retail Sales, July Meeting Minutes from the Federal Reserve

Thursday (8/18): Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims

All Week: Fed Presidents Speak (Waller, Bowman, George, Kashkari, Barkin)

What We’re Watching:

Events-Driven Winners

Companies continue to pile on the buybacks — likely because the Inflation Reduction Act passing would create a new tax on doing so in the future.

Our friends at LevelFields scrub through thousands of data points each week to determine how events impact stock prices.

It’s painful to see in real time — but shareholders often love to see layoffs. Employee headcount is always among companies’ largest expense categories, especially after hiring like crazy during a bull market. Atara Biotherapeutics & Peloton joined the ranks below of companies that slashed headcount last week:

(percent of total workforce)

If you’re starting your investing journey or want to change to a cleaner, social-focused investing platform, consider visiting Public.com.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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