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  • 👉 The Investing Week Ahead: AI "Woodstock"

👉 The Investing Week Ahead: AI "Woodstock"

It won't be your average party though...

Welcome to your new week.

Our quick chart of the day is a special dedication to our beloved credit cards…

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Do what you can to pay these off! Credit card debt is amongst the highest interest debt out there — make it a priority to get it out of your life.

If you’re struggling with debt — here’s a few good Rich Habits podcast episodes for you to check out:

Deeper details on this topic (and much more) below! 

Key Earnings Announcements:

SAIC, Micron, and athleisure giants Nike & Lululemon headline this week.

Monday (3/18): Dlocal, Embraer, Lantern Pharma, SAIC, Stone

Tuesday (3/19): Caleres, Core & Main, HealthEquity, XPENG

Wednesday (3/20): Chewy, General Mills, Guess, Jinko Solar, Micron, Pinduoduo

Thursday (3/21): AAR, Accenture, Academy Sports, Fedex, Intuitive Machines, Lululemon, Nike

Friday (3/22): N/A

What We’re Watching:

Micron Technology is scheduled to report Q2 results on March 20th — with an expected loss per share of -$0.41 on revenue of $5.34 billion.  Just a year earlier they reported a Q2 loss per share of -$1.91 on revenue of $3.7 billion. 

This turnaround is largely fueled by Micron’s exposure to AI — especially a growing partnership with Nvidia. Bears argue that Micron is a cyclical stock that won’t be able to hold its pace of earnings improvement. MU has risen +30% in the past 6 months, compared to a 13% rise in the S&P 500. 

”We are in the very early stages of a multi-year growth phase catalyzed and driven by generative AI, and this disruptive technology will eventually transform every aspect of business and society"

— Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO, Q1’24 Earnings Call Remarks

Amidst a challenging quarter and a -17% decline over the past three months — Nike's stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500. Whether it’s been a criticized baseball jersey partnership with Fanatics, decelerating business in China, or footwear market share being taken by On Holdings (ONON) or Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK — AKA Hoka Shoes)… there’s been plenty of bad news.

Analysts like RBC Capital's Piral Dadhania highlight Nike's enduring strengths, particularly its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy. RBC maintains an outperform rating with a $110 price target.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Evolving debt profiles, Nvidia’s big conference, and surging housing delinquencies 

  • Debt Landscape Transformation

Americans Now Pay as Much Interest on Other Debt as on Mortgages

Interest on U.S. non-mortgage debt has surged to $575 billion — equaling the amount of mortgage debt interest and reflecting a +130% increase from $250 billion three years ago.

36% of U.S. adults have more credit card debt than savings, with the average household owing $7,951 in credit card debt. As interest rates continue to climb, the financial strain from this debt intensifies — highlighting the challenges of managing high-interest debt amid inflation.

“Think about a consumer that makes $50,000 a year… When inflation outpaces your wage growth, they’re making choices in terms of what they’re going to spend, what bill they’re going to pay and what they’re going to frankly put on their table.”

— John Green, Discover’s Chief Financial Officer

  • GPU Technology Conference 2024

As if they didn’t have enough news coverage already… Nvidia’s biggest event of the year has returned. CEO Jensen Huang will be unveiling the latest tech at GTC 2024 — and the media is already dubbing it as “AI Woodstock.” GTC will also have a large in-person presence — with 16,000+ attendees expected.

At the conference, the company is expected to reveal its next-generation Blackwell architecture and B100 GPU — promising huge advancements in AI model performance. Leadership from Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI are also slated to speak.

This year's showcase could also include updates to its CUDA software platform, which is critical for developers of all levels. NVDA’s stock price skyrocketed during last year’s conference after Huang said the “iPhone moment of AI has started.”

  • Multifamily Housing Defaults Reach Highest Level in 10+ Years

Freddie Mac has recently seen a serious jump in multifamily housing delinquencies. This statistic is defined as “unpaid principal balance of mortgage loans at least two monthly payments past due or in the process of foreclosure.”

The agency excludes loans in forbearance so long as the borrower remains compliant with the forbearance agreement. The definitions suggest that the total percentage of loans facing trouble in some form is likely larger. Some of the additional cases could further develop into the serious category.

“Mortgage delinquencies increased across all product types for the second consecutive quarter… While the overall delinquency rate is still very low compared to the historical average, the pace of new loans entering delinquency picked up and some loans moved into later stages of delinquency.

The resumption of student loan payments, robust personal spending, and rising balances on credit cards and other forms of consumer debt, paired with declining savings rates, are likely behind increasing borrowers falling behind at the end of 2023.”

— Marina Walsh, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Vice President of Industry Analysis.

Major Economic Events:

The Fed’s next interest rate moves, and LEI trends.

Monday (3/18): Home Builder Confidence Index

Tuesday (3/19): Building Permits, Housing Starts

Wednesday (3/20): Fed Chair Powell Press Conference, FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Thursday (3/21): Existing Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI, S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Leading Economic Indicators

Friday (3/22): N/A

What We’re Watching:

As the Fed meets this March, everyone is really trying to find out if there will be rate cuts in June. The economy's strength challenged initial expectations of three or more rate cuts in 2024 — lowering expectations down now to only two. Investors are listening closely for any mention of “higher for longer” sentiment.

In January 2024 — the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) dropped by -0.4% to 102.7. This continued a negative trend, with a -3.0% decrease over the last six months. 

Despite declines driven by reduced manufacturing work hours and a negative yield spread, 6 out of 10 LEI components improved — indicating no imminent recession. The forecast suggests a slowdown to near zero GDP growth in the middle quarters of 2024.

If you’re starting your investing journey or are interested in buying T-bills yielding 5% or more, consider visiting Public.com.

If you want to check out the full episode list of the Rich Habits podcast, click here.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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