👉 The Most Pivotal Week of 2025

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Key Earnings Announcements:

You can’t ask for much more in a single week. We have Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and a LOT more.

Monday (4/28): Domino’s Pizza, MGM Resorts, Nucor, Transocean, Waste Management

Tuesday (4/29): Bookings Holdings, Coca-Cola, First Solar, JetBlue, PayPal, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean, SoFi, Spotify, Starbacks, Visa

Wednesday (4/30): ADP, Caterpillar, Generac, Humana, Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, Qualcomm

Thursday (5/1): Airbnb, Amazon, Apple, CVS, Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Reddit, SiriusXM, Shake Shack

Friday (5/2): Apollo, Brookefield, Cigna, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, FuboTV, Wendy’s

What We’re Watching:

1. Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon reports Thursday, down -13.9% YTD despite Q4 2024’s $187.8B revenue (up +10% YoY) — driven by AWS’s +19% growth to $28.8B. Insiders sold $5B in stock over the past year with very limited buys, raising valuation concerns.

As you’d expect — tariffs will be a major question mark for Amazon as sellers from across the world have been vocal about raising their prices. Another interesting point to watch will be Project Kuiper’s 27-satellite launch this month positions it to challenge Starlink.

AWS’ high margins and surging advertising income (50%+ of operating income) could shield against trade wars. However, the constant worry of a recession risk threatens consumer spending. Tariffs may also disrupt AWS spending by 2-3%.

The market has already gotten a major “box checked” by Google’s strong earnings last week. Amazon knocking this earnings report out of the park would be another big hurdle for the market to move higher.

• Analysts expect $1.36 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $155.08 billion.

• You can explore the most recent AMZN investor release here and here.

2. Apple (AAPL)

Apple reports Thursday, down -16.4% YTD despite tariff exemptions on iPhones after CEO Tim Cook’s lobbying. Q1 2025 saw iPhone sales slip -5% YoY in China, while Apple aims to shift all U.S. iPhone production to India by 2026 — facing roadblocks like China blocking equipment exports and India’s infrastructure gaps.

Tariffs could cost Apple $38B annually, but exemptions have lifted shares short-term. With still so much uncertainty, recession risk and softer iPhone upgrades threaten the growth of Apple — while India production delays add supply chain worries. Apple’s last earnings report noted that it was the company’s “best quarter ever” (more below). We’ll see if the outlook feels as bright this time around.

• Analysts expect $1.61 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $94.06 billion.

• You can explore the most recent AAPL investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Treasury Secretary Bessent continues to be a market-mover, it’s a “critical week” for Russia / Ukraine negotiations, and Canada will elect its next Prime Minister today.

• Treasury Secretary Bessent Remains in the Trade War Spotlight

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains a pivotal figure in President Trump's aggressive trade war strategy, leading tariff negotiations with China and over 75 nations. Amid a 90-day tariff pause, Bessent has not confirmed Trump's claims of direct talks with Chinese leadership, stating he is unaware of such discussions but emphasizing that "trade conversations are happening" to secure "bespoke" deals. With markets rattled by 145% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and China's 125% retaliatory duties — Bessent defends the approach to rebalance trade and boost U.S. manufacturing.

One thing is for certain — Secretary Bessent has become perhaps the most “market-moving man” in the world besides President Trump. It also seems that he’s among the most trusted Cabinet member when it comes to Trump’s comfort with their public appearances.

• “Critical Week” for Russia / Ukraine Negotiations

This week marks a pivotal moment for Russia-Ukraine peace talks as Trump’s 100-day deadline nears, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling it “critical” after Trump questioned Putin’s commitment following deadly Kyiv strikes. Trump met Zelenskyy Saturday, floating tougher sanctions, while envoy Steve Witkoff’s Moscow visit yielded Putin’s openness to bilateral talks. With all that being said though — the masses (and the market) aren’t convinced that we’re truly closer to a stalemate.

We’ll see if anything comes to fruition this week — and if it does — what happens to the market.

• Canada Will Elect a Prime Minister Today

Canadians are voting today to elect a new prime minister, with Liberal Mark Carney and Conservative Pierre Poilievre locked in a tight race largely shaped by how each would handle relations with President Trump. The main issues are reorienting Canada's economy away from U.S. dependence and negotiating new trade and security deals, as both candidates promise tax cuts, military spending increases, and protection of Canadian sovereignty. Carney emphasizes his economic leadership experience, while Poilievre has gained support by focusing on affordability challenges after a decade of Liberal rule.

Early in the year, Conservatives led by over 20 points, but Trump's recent trade threats and Carney’s leadership helped the Liberals overtake them, now holding a three-point lead. Turnout is expected to be heavy, which often benefits opposition parties, though this election pits demands for change against desires for stability. Results are expected after 9:30 p.m. ET, and the key number to watch is 172 seats needed for a majority government.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how the finalization of this election will either inhibit or promote the progress of trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S.

Major Economic Events:

There’s not only earnings reports on the horizon — but also one of the biggest week of economic updates year-to-date.

Monday (4/28): N/A

Tuesday (4/29): Advanced Retail Sales, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Confidence, Job Openings, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Wednesday (4/30): ADP Employment, Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), Consumer Spending, Core PCE, Employment Cost Index, GDP, Pending Home Sales, PCE

Thursday (5/1): Auto Sales, Construction Spending, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing, S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing

Friday (5/2): Factory Orders, Hourly Wages, U.S. Nonfarm Payroll, U.S. Unemployment Rate

What We’re Watching:

1. Q1 GDP (First Reading)

One thing is guaranteed… we’re going to find out this week if the Atlanta Fed has been unnecessarily bearish on their Q1 GDP outlook — or if they’re a reliable source for GDP forecasting. 

The US economy is expected to have nearly stalled in Q1 2025, with economists forecasting just +0.4% annualized growth — a sharp slowdown from +2.4% in Q4 2024. If confirmed, it would mark the slowest pace since 2022. Markets are bracing for the GDP reading on Wednesday, with concerns mounting that tariffs and rising trade barriers could tip the economy into contraction in the months ahead.

2. Core PCE Index

Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — rose +0.4% in February, its biggest monthly gain since early 2024. On an annual basis, core inflation ticked up to +2.8%, topping expectations and signaling that price pressures remain stubborn beneath the surface.

This week, Core PCE is expected to rise just +0.1% MoM and +2.5% YoY. Both of these would be welcome results by the market.

3. Jobs Report

After a strong March showing (+228K jobs), economists expect a slower gain of +133K jobs in April, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. March’s growth was fueled by health care, social assistance, and transportation jobs — but signs of cooling could emerge as broader sectors remain flat.

We’ll see how this week’s jobs report changes any beliefs in the eyes of the Fed.

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