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- 👉 $24B from Amazon Prime Days?
👉 $24B from Amazon Prime Days?
Chip Exports, Delta Air Lines, Tariff Extensions
Austin Hankwitz
07 Jul
Together with X Funds
Welcome to your new week.
Wipe those eyes and pour that coffee — the holiday has sadly concluded.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know this week!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
Conagra Brands, Delta Air Lines, and Levi Strauss highlight this quiet week of earnings.
Monday (7/7): None Scheduled
Tuesday (7/8): Aehr Test Systems, Kura Sushi, Penguin Solutions, Saratoga Investment Corp.
Wednesday (7/9): AZZ, Bassett
Thursday (7/10): Byrna, Conagra, Delta Air Lines, E2open, Helen of Troy, Levis, NTIC, PriceSmart, Simply Good Foods, Vista Outdoor, WD-40 Company
Friday (7/11): None Scheduled
What We’re Watching:
Conagra Brands (CAG)
Conagra Brands is ready to release its latest quarterly earnings, with analysts anticipating a recovery in shipment volumes and an improvement in gross margins. The company has been dealing with timing differences in seasonal shipments, particularly within its grocery and snacks segment. As service levels on key frozen products begin to recover, shipment volumes are expected to show improvement.
Investors will be keenly watching for updates on gross margins, which are anticipated to improve as Conagra overcomes previous supply disruptions. Additionally, external factors such as high inflation, potential tariffs, and consumer sentiment will be closely monitored. The upcoming earnings report is also expected to provide more detailed guidance for fiscal 2026, offering insights into the company's strategic direction.
Conagra Brands (CAG) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Delta Air Lines is preparing to announce its earnings, with a focus on how the company is managing a challenging macroeconomic environment. The airline has reported flat pre-tax earnings compared to the previous year, with a slight increase in revenue. However, there has been noted softness in domestic and Main Cabin demand, particularly in consumer and corporate travel sectors.
In response, Delta plans to reduce its expected capacity growth in the second half of 2025 to better align supply with demand. Investors will be looking for updates on operating margins, which are expected to be between 11-14% for the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, earnings per share are projected to be in the range of $1.70 to $2.30. The company is also implementing aggressive cost management strategies, targeting low single-digit growth in non-fuel unit costs, as it navigates through these external challenges while maintaining profitability and growth.
Delta Air Lines, Inc, (DAL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Amazon Prime Days are projected to yield $23.8 billion of online spend, another tariff extension has arrived, and chip export restrictions could impact Nvidia.
Amazon Prime Day
Online spending during this year’s extended Amazon Prime Day event, running from July 8 to 11, is projected to hit $23.8 billion, a 28.4% increase over last year, according to Adobe Analytics. This four-day sales period, described as “equivalent to two Black Fridays,” reflects shoppers' eagerness to find deep discounts, especially on back-to-school items like apparel and electronics. Amazon has doubled the length of the event from 48 to 96 hours, while competitors like Walmart and Target are launching rival promotions.
Consumers are increasingly using generative AI tools to hunt for deals and stretch their budgets, particularly amid economic uncertainty and global trade tensions linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. Popular categories for discounts include clothing (up to 24% off), electronics (22% off), and college essentials like backpacks and computers. Additionally, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage is expected to rise slightly, accounting for 8% of online spending, up from 7.6% last year.
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“While AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details.”
Brief Tariff Extension Keeps Nations on the Clock
With the July 9 trade deadline approaching, countries are scrambling to secure agreements or request extensions to avoid steep U.S. tariffs, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed some may receive a three-week negotiation window. President Trump announced that tariff letters would begin going out Monday, though Bessent emphasized these are not final and tariffs won't take effect until August 1 — leaving room for continued negotiations.
The U.S. is focusing on 18 major trading partners, with several close to reaching deals, though Bessent acknowledged heavy congestion and “foot-dragging” on the other side. Countries like Japan, South Korea, India, and the EU are making last-minute concessions or threatening retaliation, while Trump’s team continued intense talks over the holiday weekend. Some nations, such as Cambodia and Vietnam, have announced or are finalizing framework agreements — and others like Indonesia and Thailand are offering expanded access to U.S. markets to avert high tariffs.
The administration’s approach, marked by unilateral threats and accelerated timelines, has raised concerns among investors about renewed trade volatility, particularly as prior tariff hikes had triggered market declines and fears of recession.
“I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Chip Export Restrictions (Including Nvidia)
The Trump administration is drafting new rules to restrict shipments of AI chips from companies like Nvidia to Malaysia and Thailand, aiming to prevent smuggling into China. The Commerce Department's proposed regulation would rescind global curbs from the Biden-era AI diffusion rule while maintaining strict chip export controls on China and over 40 other countries. This marks the first formal move in Trump’s overhaul of AI-related export policy, though the draft leaves key security and enforcement questions unresolved — especially regarding overseas data center use.
The U.S. fears that China may access restricted semiconductors through Southeast Asian intermediaries or via remote access to foreign data centers. To ease the transition, exemptions may allow U.S.-allied firms to continue shipments to Malaysia and Thailand temporarily without licenses, and certain allowances would help avoid supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, Nvidia declined to comment, and Malaysian and Thai officials await further details as Washington’s scrutiny on the region intensifies.
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Washington officials for years have debated which countries should be able to import American AI chips — and under what conditions. On one hand, the world wants Nvidia hardware, and US policymakers want the world to build AI systems using American technology — before China can offer a compelling alternative. On the other, once those semiconductors leave American and allied shores, US officials worry the chips could somehow make their way to China, or that Chinese AI companies could benefit from remote access to data centers outside the Asian country.”
Major Economic Events:
June’s FOMC minutes will be released this week, along with initial jobless claims.
Monday (7/7): None Scheduled
Tuesday (7/8): Consumer Credit, NFIB Optimism Index
Wednesday (7/9): Minutes of Fed’s May FOMC Meeting, Wholesale Inventories
Thursday (7/10): Initial Jobless Claims, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speech, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem Speech
Friday (7/11): Monthly U.S. Federal Budget
What We’re Watching:
FOMC Minutes
Source: Summary of Economic Projections, June 18, 2025
FOMC minutes from the June meeting reaffirmed the Fed’s cautious stance, with the federal funds rate held steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth straight meeting. While officials noted a modest decline in economic uncertainty, they flagged ongoing risks tied to Trump-era policy shifts, including tariffs and immigration. Updated projections show the Fed still expects two rate cuts later this year, though only one 25 bps cut is penciled in for both 2026 and 2027.
The Fed downgraded its GDP outlook to +1.4% in 2025 (from +1.7%) and +1.6% in 2026 (from +1.8%), while also slightly raising inflation expectations for this year. Policymakers now see PCE inflation hitting 3.0% in 2025, easing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 — still above target, but on a declining path.
“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum-employment and price-stability mandates, keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.”
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims fell by -4,000 to 233,000 for the week ending June 28, slightly below expectations of 240,000. While the decline marks the softest labor market loosening in six weeks, claims remain elevated compared to early-year averages — a sign of a gradually cooling but historically strong job market.
Continuing claims held steady at 1.964 million, the highest since 2021 and above expectations of 1.960 million, suggesting unemployed workers are facing longer job search timelines. Claims from federal employees — a data point in focus after recent layoffs at the Department of Government Efficiency — fell to 453, the lowest in nearly two months.
Economists expect the following next week:
Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 5): 238,000
Continuing Claims (week ending June 28): 1.965 million
“Though the job market is broadly healthy by historical standards, some weakness has surfaced as employers contend with fallout from Trump’s policies, especially his aggressive tariffs.”
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Cover image source: About Amazon
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