👉 Big Week for Big Tech Begins!

Together with Alumni Ventures

Welcome to your new week.

In case you were feeling any mid-summer boredom with the market, fasten your seatbelt. Big Tech earnings are beginning this week and there’s a lot of action on the way!

Key Earnings Announcements:

Big Tech takes center stage as Alphabet and Tesla report on the same evening.

Monday (7/20): AGNC Investment, AMC Entertainment, Calix, Crown Holdings, Domino's Pizza, Ryanair, Steel Dynamics, W.R. Berkley, Zions Bancorporation

Tuesday (7/21): 3M, Ally Financial, Alaska Air, Annaly Capital, Charles Schwab, Danaher, D.R. Horton, East West Bancorp, EQT, General Motors, Halliburton, MSCI, Pegasystems, Range Resources, Valmont, Western Alliance

Wednesday (7/22): Alphabet, AT&T, CSX, Crown Castle, GE Vernova, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Moody's, Philip Morris, PulteGroup, ServiceNow, TE Connectivity, Tesla, Texas Instruments, Travel + Leisure, Wabtec

Thursday (7/23): American Airlines, Blackstone, Boston Beer, Boyd Gaming, Cemex, Cleveland-Cliffs, Deckers, \Freeport-McMoRan, Huntington Bancshares, Intel, Lockheed Martin, Newmont, Nokia, RingCentral, Sallie Mae, STMicroelectronics, Tractor Supply

Friday (7/24): American Express, Booz Allen Hamilton, Canadian National, Central Pacific, Charter, HCA Healthcare, Lamb Weston, NextEra Energy, SLB, Verizon

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What We’re Watching:

1. Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla (-15.3% YTD) reports Q2 FY2026 earnings Wednesday after the close, with investors focused on whether the story has fully shifted from cars to robots, robotaxis, and AI — because the delivery numbers alone aren't carrying this stock anymore. Tesla is one of the most polarizing names in the market right now, and this print will test whether the AI premium baked into the valuation can survive a quarter where the automotive business is still under pressure.

Last quarter, Tesla delivered $22.4 billion in revenue and just $0.13 in GAAP diluted EPS, with operating margin compressing to 4% as price cuts and softer volumes weighed on the auto business. Free cash flow came in at $1.4 billion, but management guided for negative free cash flow through the rest of the year and capex above $25 billion for 2026 — a heavy investment cycle tied to AI compute, the Optimus humanoid robot, and the robotaxi rollout. The bright spot was auto gross margin ex-credits ticking up from 17.9% to 19.2%.

This quarter, the focus will be on Elon Musk's roadmap more than the income statement. Investors will be watching for updates on the Robotaxi expansion across Austin, Dallas, and Houston, the FSD v14.3 rollout, the AI5 chip tape-out, and any hard numbers or timelines on Optimus. Also in focus: whether energy storage and services can keep offsetting automotive softness, and whether the massive capex ramp starts to show a return.

• Analysts expect $0.31 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $26.4 billion.

• You can explore the most recent TSLA investor release here and here.

2. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Alphabet (+10.8% YTD) reports Q2 FY2026 earnings Wednesday after the close, and this one may be the single most important print of the week — Alphabet is the first mega-cap cloud company to report, making it the market's first real read on whether the AI capital-spending cycle is still converting into revenue. With semiconductors selling off hard last week on AI-spend anxiety, Wall Street wants receipts, and Google Cloud is where they'll look first.

Last quarter, Alphabet delivered $109.9 billion in revenue and $5.11 in diluted EPS, up 82%, with net income surging 81% to $62.6 billion. Google Cloud grew 63% year-over-year to more than $20 billion with a record operating margin, backlog swelled to $462 billion, and Search revenue climbed 19% even as AI was supposed to be eating it. Management raised the dividend 5%, closed the Wiz acquisition, and pushed 2026 capex to $35.7 billion, while Waymo crossed 500,000+ paid rides per week.

This quarter, the focus will be on whether Google Cloud can sustain that ~63% growth crown or if aggressive new entrants have started eating into the enterprise pipeline. Investors will be watching cloud operating margins, updated full-year capex guidance, Search monetization in the AI era, paid subscriber growth beyond 350 million, and any commentary on how AI Overviews and Gemini are affecting the core ad engine. Consensus is looking for roughly $116.9 billion in revenue.

• Analysts expect $2.89 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $116.9 billion.

• You can explore the most recent GOOGL investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Brent crude blows past $90, SpaceX stumbles on the launch pad, and Britain gets a new Prime Minister.

• Oil Breaks $90 as Hormuz Conflict Widens

Brent crude topped $90 a barrel on Monday as the U.S.-Iran conflict over control of the Strait of Hormuz entered its second week, with fresh strikes and disrupted shipping traffic pushing oil to its highest level in more than a year. The Strait historically handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, and every fresh escalation forces the market to price in a wider and longer supply disruption.

The move has been fast and violent. Brent climbed to nearly $88 on Friday for its largest weekly gain since April, then punched through $90 over the weekend as attacks on regional energy infrastructure intensified. Analysts now see a wide range of outcomes: a base case of Brent consolidating in the high-$70s to mid-$90s, with a full-strait-closure tail scenario that could remove ~15 million barrels per day from accessible supply and send prices toward $150.

This is the geopolitical story with the most direct market plumbing attached. Higher oil reprices everything from airlines and transports to inflation expectations and rate-cut odds — Goldman's modeling suggests a return to $100 oil would add 3–4 basis points to monthly core inflation. With the Fed already in its quiet period ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, energy is the swing variable that could reshape the rate path into the fall.

• SpaceX Tries Again for Starship After a $100 Billion Stumble

SpaceX is targeting another attempt to launch its Starship rocket this week after a last-second abort on July 16 scrubbed its 13th test flight — the first since the company's blockbuster June IPO. Four of the Super Heavy booster's 33 engines failed to ignite, triggering an automated shutdown seconds before liftoff and erasing roughly $100 billion from SpaceX's market value. The company said it has replaced two Raptor engines and modified Starship's propulsion system to fix the problem.

The timing is confusing even by SpaceX standards: the company said in a statement it's now targeting Thursday, July 23, while Elon Musk posted on X that the launch would happen Friday — contradicting his own company. Whenever it flies, this attempt carries real stakes: for the first time, Starship will attempt to deploy 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites, a live test of the satellite-dispensing system that underpins SpaceX's plan to begin routine Starlink launches on Starship by year's end.

Since its June 12 debut, SpaceX has become a roughly $1.6–$1.7 trillion public company whose swings move with the entire tech complex — and the stock has fallen below its $135 IPO price and is down more than 30% from its post-IPO high. A clean flight would stop the bleeding; another abort would deepen a selloff that's already wiped out roughly $1 trillion in value since mid-June. As Wall Street increasingly judges SpaceX by launch cadence rather than any single mission, this flight is the first real test of whether the newly public company can refurbish and relaunch fast enough to justify its valuation.

• Britain Gets a New Prime Minister — Monday

Andy Burnham is set to be sworn in as Britain's prime minister on Monday, July 20, after taking over as Labour leader on Friday — the UK's seventh prime minister in the decade since the Brexit vote. For markets, the leadership itself is less important than the first personnel decision: who Burnham names as Chancellor to replace Rachel Reeves, the appointment that will set the tone for fiscal and economic policy.

Markets have already started to vote. Reports that Burnham will name Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor — rather than ally Ed Miliband — were welcomed by investors, helping push sterling to its highest level against the euro in over a year. The pound has been the standout performer among major currencies, rallying to a two-month high near 1.354 against the dollar before settling around 1.345, supported by the Bank of England's hawkish hold at 3.75% with two members voting for a hike.

For U.S. investors, the story is a reminder that political transitions still move real money. A credible, market-friendly Cabinet keeps sterling supported and UK gilts stable; a surprise pick or an early signal of looser fiscal policy could reverse the currency's run fast. Layer in UK inflation and jobs data landing the same week, and Britain becomes a live wire in an otherwise central-bank-driven global calendar.

Major Economic Events:

A quiet data week hands the spotlight to jobless claims and new home sales.

Monday (7/20): U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (June)

Tuesday (7/21): No major U.S. data scheduled

Wednesday (7/22): No major U.S. data scheduled (MBA Mortgage Applications)

Thursday (7/23): Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity

Friday (7/24): S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI, New Home Sales (June)

What We’re Watching:

1. Initial Jobless Claims

With the U.S. economic calendar thinning out ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting and Fed officials in their quiet period, weekly jobless claims become one of the only fresh reads on the labor market this week. Claims have been quietly resilient, holding in a tight range even as other corners of the economy show strain from elevated rates and energy-driven cost pressure.

The prior reading came in at 208,000, and economists are looking for a slight uptick to 212,000 for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims are expected near 1.808 million, up marginally from 1.805 million. A number that stays low keeps the "resilient labor market" narrative intact and supports the Fed's case to hold; a sharp jump would be the first crack worth watching heading into the FOMC.

Economists expected the following this week:

• Initial Jobless Claims: 212,000 expected

• Prior Reading: 208,000

• Continuing Claims: 1.808 million expected (prior 1.805 million)

2. New Home Sales

New home sales close out the week Friday and offer a rare housing read in an otherwise data-light stretch, with mortgage rates still elevated near 6.5% and buyers squeezed on affordability. The metric has been choppy — the prior print showed a decline as rising borrowing costs cooled demand — so this release is a check on whether the housing market is stabilizing or continuing to soften.

Economists are looking for June new home sales to rebound to a 600,000 annualized pace, up from 580,000 previously, which would snap the recent string of declines. A rebound would suggest builders' incentives and pent-up demand are finding a floor even at higher rates; another miss would reinforce that housing remains one of the most rate-sensitive pressure points in the economy.

Economists expected the following this week:

• New Home Sales: 600,000 expected

• Prior Reading: 580,000

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