- GRIT
- Posts
- 👉 Biggest Week of the Summer...?
In partnership with
Welcome to your new week.
Roughly $10 trillion of market cap reports in a 48-hour window this week — Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday — and the market has decided it no longer wants to hear about CapEx…
Let’s dive in.
Key Earnings Announcements:
4 of the Mag 7 report earnings this week.
Monday (7/27): Amkor Technology, Applied Digital, Baker Hughes, Cadence Design Systems, F5
Tuesday (7/28): Boeing, Coca-Cola, Ford Motor, KLA, Mondelez, PayPal, S&P Global, UPS, Visa
Wednesday (7/29): Arm Holdings, Chipotle, Lam Research, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, Qualcomm, Robinhood, Starbucks
Thursday (7/30): Amazon, Apple, Bristol Myers Squibb, Coinbase, Mastercard, Reddit, Roblox, Stryker
Friday (7/31): AbbVie, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Eaton, Exxon Mobil, Linde, Moderna, T. Rowe Price
Speak naturally. Send without fixing.
Wispr Flow turns your voice into clean, professional text you can send the moment you stop talking. Not rough transcription you have to clean up. Actual polished text — ready for email, Slack, or any app.
Speak the way you think. Go on tangents. Change your mind mid-sentence. Flow strips the filler, fixes the grammar, and gives you text that reads like you spent five minutes writing it.
89% of messages sent with zero edits. Millions of professionals use Flow daily, including teams at OpenAI, Vercel, and Clay. Works on Mac, Windows, and iPhone.
What We’re Watching:
Apple (APPL)
Apple (+22.5% YTD) reports Q3 FY2026 earnings Thursday after the close, and it is expected to be Tim Cook's final earnings call as chief executive before he steps down later this year. Apple is the best-performing megacap of 2026 for a simple reason: it is the one Magnificent Seven name not writing $100 billion CapEx checks. HSBC, which upgraded the stock to Buy on July 17, put it bluntly — Apple invests about 2.5% of estimated 2026 sales versus 39% for the hyperscalers. Shares hit an all-time high of $334.99 this month, putting the market cap near $4.9 trillion.
Last quarter, Apple delivered $111.2 billion in revenue and $2.01 EPS, with iPhone revenue up 22% to $57 billion on iPhone 17 demand and Services setting an all-time record at $30.98 billion, up 16% at a 76.7% gross margin. Services are roughly 28% of revenue but about 35% of gross profit — a software business hiding inside a hardware company. CFO Kevan Parekh then guided the June quarter to 14-17% revenue growth, far above the roughly 9.5% the Street had modeled, while warning that memory costs would climb sharply.
This quarter is about whether that aggressive guide holds and what it costs. Gross margin is guided to ~48%, down from 49.3%.. Beyond the numbers, two things move the stock: color on the revamped Apple Intelligence and agentic Siri rollout, and any framing of the CEO succession. Options are pricing a roughly 3.6% move.
"Apple is now at an operational turning point: not only can the company stay away from the (too) high CapEx debate, it is also well placed to leverage its 2.5 billion installed device base with its forthcoming revamped Apple Intelligence."
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft (-21.1% YTD) reports Q4 FY2026 earnings Wednesday after the close, with investors focused on whether Azure can justify a $190 billion capital spending bill. Shares fell roughly 18% in June alone — the worst month since December 2000 — and now trade near 21x forward earnings, the cheapest in about three years. Microsoft has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last five quarters and the stock has fallen on the print every time.
Last quarter, Microsoft delivered $82.9 billion in revenue and $4.27 EPS, beating on both lines, with Azure up 40% and an AI business running at a $37 billion annualized rate. None of it mattered. The stock fell 3.9% the next day because CFO Amy Hood guided calendar-2026 CapEx to roughly $190 billion, about $35 billion above the Street.
This quarter, three numbers matter: Azure growth, guided to the high-30s to 40% in constant currency; Q4 CapEx, guided above $40 billion; and Microsoft Cloud gross margin, guided to 64%, down four points YoY. Copilot seat adds are also the wildcard — BNP Paribas thinks paid seats could clear 30 million.
"Azure YoY growth at or above the 39-40% is needed for the stock to work. A miss could intensify concerns around AI ROI."
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Apple v. OpenAI Gets a New Judge, Oil Gives Back Its War Premium, and Jersey Mike's Prices a $1 Billion IPO on Wednesday.
Apple v. OpenAI Gets a New Judge
Apple's trade-secrets lawsuit against OpenAI was reassigned on July 23 from Magistrate Judge Virginia DeMarchi to U.S. District Judge Edward Davila, with Magistrate Judge Nathanael Cousins handling discovery. That is a procedural detail with real consequences: a district judge signals the case is being treated as a full-scale litigation rather than a discovery skirmish.
The suit, filed July 10 in the Northern District of California, runs 41 pages and names io Products, the Jony Ive hardware unit OpenAI acquired, along with OpenAI Chief Hardware Officer Tang Tan Apple cites more than 400 former employees now working at OpenAI and has sent legal-hold letters to roughly 40 more, calling its findings so far the "tip of the iceberg.”
The calendar is the tell. The October 13 case management conference was vacated, settlement discussions are due September 22, and a joint statement is due October 6 — all while OpenAI is reportedly preparing a confidential S-1. An unresolved trade-secrets claim from the world's most valuable consumer hardware company is not a footnote in an IPO prospectus. Expect a question about it on Apple's call Thursday.
"At every level, from members of its Technical Staff to its Chief Hardware Officer, and in coordination with business partners, OpenAI has been stealing Apple's trade secrets and confidential information."
Oil Gives Back Its War Premium — but Hormuz Is Still Closed
Source: Reuters via Al Jazeera
Crude is having its worst day in months. The U.S. halted its bombing campaign against Iran after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, Iran reciprocated by pausing retaliatory attacks, and Brent fell roughly 7.8% Monday morning to just under $90 after briefly trading above $100 last week for the first time since May WTI dropped to around $83. That is more than 20% off the wartime peak in a matter of days.
Here is the catch: nothing physical has actually changed. This is a conditional "attack for attack" pause, not a ceasefire — Iran's foreign ministry said Monday it is not seeking renewed talks and still controls the strait, while CENTCOM's naval blockade remains in full effect. Fewer than 10 cargo ships transited Hormuz over the entire weekend, against more than 100 per day before the conflict. Meanwhile the Houthis attacked Saudi tankers and declared a blockade of Bab el-Mandeb, so traffic through the second chokepoint is falling too.
So the market just repriced diplomacy, not supply. Omani mediators are shuttling a provisional deal on vessel transit, but analysts warn normalization is unlikely near-term, and the Institute for the Study of War notes the July campaign hit roughly 1,000 targets versus 13,000 in the spring phase — not enough to change Tehran's calculus. OPEC+ meets August 2. For investors, the read-through is the Fed: crude at $90 instead of $100 takes some pressure off the hike tail we discuss below, but one failed round of talks puts it right back.
Source: Trading Economics
"The main market risk remains the energy and shipping front. Traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while the conflict has broadened into the Red Sea."
Jersey Mike's Prices a $1 Billion IPO on Wednesday
Jersey Mike's prices its IPO Wednesday and begins trading on the NYSE Thursday under the ticker JMKE, offering roughly 43.5 million shares at $21 to $25 for a raise of up to $1.09 billion.. It is the largest U.S. restaurant listing in years and the cleanest read yet on whether the IPO window is actually open or just cracked.
At the top of the range the company would be valued near $7.94 billion — about eight times Sweetgreen's entire market cap. That is a big number until you remember Jersey Mike's was targeting north of $12 billion as recently as this spring. The haircut is the story. Independent analysis pegs fair value at roughly 18x to 22x FY2026 EV/EBITDA, which puts the deal squarely in range rather than priced for perfection.
Watch the aftermarket more than the pricing. A franchise-heavy, cash-generative, non-AI business debuting in the same week as the FOMC and four megacap prints is about as clean a sentiment test as you will get. If JMKE trades well, the fall IPO calendar fills up fast.
"The IPO exit opportunity is real."
Major Economic Events:
FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Q2 GDP Advance Estimate, and Core PCE.
Monday (7/27): Durable Goods Orders (June), Durable Goods Orders ex-Transportation (June), Core Capital Goods Orders (June), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (July)
Tuesday (7/28): FOMC Meeting Begins, CB Consumer Confidence (July), S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (May), Advance Goods Trade Balance (June), FHFA House Price Index (May), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (July), Advance Retail and Wholesale Inventories (June)
Wednesday (7/29): FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2:00 p.m. ET), Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET), MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Thursday (7/30): Q2 GDP Advance Estimate, GDP Price Index (Q2), Core PCE Price Index (June, MoM and YoY), Personal Income and Spending (June), Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Pending Home Sales (June)
Friday (7/31): Employment Cost Index (Q2), Chicago PMI (July), ISM Services PMI (July), S&P Global Services and Composite PMI Final (July), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July), Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
What We’re Watching:
FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision Wednesday July 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET. All 104 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to hold at 3.50-3.75% — the fifth straight hold — and 78 of them expect no change at all through year-end. The CME FedWatch probability of a hike went from 10.7% on July 15 to 34.7% by July 22 and roughly 38% by Friday's close, more than tripling in nine sessions as oil surged and Warsh sounded hawkish in his first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The probability of a cut is zero.
There is no SEP or dot plot at this meeting — those come in September. This is Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Chair, and he has already cut the statement's word count by 61% and stripped out forward guidance entirely. June's meeting produced a unanimous 12-0 hold, but nine of eighteen officials penciled in at least one hike by year-end. With no dots and almost no statement, Warsh's press conference is the entire signal.
The complication is the labor market. June payrolls came in at just 57,000 against consensus near 113,000, with 74,000 in downward revisions to prior months, even as unemployment fell to 4.2%. A committee facing an oil-driven inflation impulse and a decelerating jobs market has no clean answer, which is exactly why the hike tail is fat and the hold is unanimous.
Economists expected the following this week:
Fed Funds Target Rate: hold at 3.50%-3.75% expected
Prior: 3.50%-3.75%
CME FedWatch hike odds: ~38%, up from ~11% on July 15
"This is arguably the most consequential FOMC meeting Kevin Warsh has faced. An oil shock, a labor market at a 57-year low in claims, and a divided committee — he has to signal his reaction function without pre-committing to a path."
Q2 GDP Advance Estimate and Core PCE
Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET the market gets the two prints the Fed voted without: the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June core PCE deflator. Consensus has GDP around 2.1-2.2%, but the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tracked just 1.7% as of July 17, dragged down by a 1.35 percentage point hit from net exports. Q1 was revised to +2.1% in the third estimate.
Core PCE is the one that matters for the hike debate. Consensus is 3.4% year over year, unchanged from the prior month, with the monthly print at +0.1%. Headline PCE ran 3.7% year over year last month. A core print that holds at 3.4% keeps the "patient hold" narrative alive; anything at 3.5% or above with Brent near $100 hands the hawks their case for September.
The rest of the morning fills in the demand picture. Personal income is expected +0.4% and personal spending +0.2%, initial jobless claims are seen at 200,000 versus 206,000 prior, and continuing claims sit near 1,800,000. Then Friday brings the Q2 Employment Cost Index — the wage series Warsh has repeatedly flagged as his preferred read on whether the oil shock is bleeding into second-round inflation.
Economists expected the following this week:
Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: 2.1% expected / Prior: 2.1%
Core PCE Price Index YoY: 3.4% expected / Prior: 3.4%
Core PCE Price Index MoM: +0.1% expected / Prior: +0.1%
Initial Jobless Claims: 200,000 expected / Prior: 206,000
"The consensus is steady but soft: the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tracked 1.7% annualised as of 17 July, dragged down by net trade, while professional forecasters see 2.1%. Either way the market expects growth to hold near 2% — comfortably positive, but nowhere near a boom."
Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.
Cover Image Source: Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION
No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.
The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.
Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.
By using the Site or any related social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.
Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy
If you have any questions please contact us at [email protected]