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Together with Kalshi
Welcome to your new week.
Earnings season is picking up the pace in a BIG way!
Let’s dive into everything that you should be watching this week.
Before we get started, we’d like to call out a HISTORIC political update.
Kalshi just received approval on its “Congressional Control Contracts” – making it legal for anyone to bet on political outcomes … including the upcoming Presidential Election.
If you’ve walked around Times Squares lately, you might already know about this…
In case you’re unfamiliar with Kalshi, it’s a site where you can place bets on things like inflation reports or jobs data — and also when Bitcoin will hit $100K or what music artist has the #1 album this year.
But now they’ve really upped their game. Will Trump beat Kamala? Will Kamala win Pennsylvania? I don’t know, but you can now legally bet on these outcomes in all 50 states!
I’ve personally been using Kalshi since 2021 and I’m definitely going to have some fun with the election events they’re offering.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Boeing, Tesla, major airlines, and telecommunication companies highlight the next wave of earnings action.
Monday (10/21): SAP
Tuesday (10/22): 3M, GE Aerospace, General Motors, Texas Instruments, Verizon
Wednesday (10/23): AT&T, Boeing, CocaCola, IBM, NextEra Energy, ServiceNow, Tesla
Thursday (10/24): American Airlines, Dexcom, Nasdaq, Skechers, Southwest, UPS, Tractor Supply Co
Friday (10/25): Centene, New York Community Bancorp, Piper Sandler
What We’re Watching:
Boeing (BA)
Source: Boeing Investor Relations
Boeing (-40.5% YTD) is set to deliver its Q3 earnings on Wednesday, alongside a critical vote by union members on a tentative agreement that could end a month-long strike.
The deal offers a +35% pay hike over four years, up from Boeing's initial offer of +25%, as well as reinstated incentives and improved 401(k) contributions. The strike — which halted production of key aircraft models — was sparked by 95% of the union voting against the previous offer in September.
While the vote outcome may bring workers back, Boeing still faces significant financial challenges. The company is expected to report a -$6 billion loss for Q3, with further pressures from issues like the troubled refueling tanker program and its recent sell-off of defense subsidiaries. CEO Kelly Ortberg expects to get grilled during the earnings call, addressing these hurdles and ongoing efforts to raise capital and reduce losses.
“Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together. Beyond navigating our current environment, restoring our company requires tough decisions and we will have to make structural changes to ensure we can stay competitive and deliver for our customers over the long term.”
The Boeing Company (BA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Tesla (TSLA)
Source: EV Volumes / Renault Group
Tesla (-11.2% YTD) will report its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, following the recent "We, Robot" event that left analysts begging for data. Global deliveries improved sequentially for the first time this year — boosting profits, along with a possible uptick in automotive gross margins.
However, investor concerns linger after the robotaxi unveiling largely fell short of expectations. The new Cybercab, designed to be fully autonomous without a steering wheel or pedals, is slated for production by 2027 and will likely be a major talking point during the earnings call. Other focuses are expected to be updates on Tesla’s energy storage business and Full Self-Driving (FSD) developments.
One last thing that could be mentioned is that this will be the last Tesla earnings call before the U.S. Presidential Election. Elon Musk would likely have a role related to government efficiency improvements if Trump wins — and analysts are starting to wonder if that would take away any focus from Tesla and Musk’s other companies.
Tesla needs a squeaky-clean report if they want to catch-up with the rest of Big Tech.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs
Crypto looks ready to pop and Qualcomm (QCOM) host the biggest non-earnings event of the week.
Bitcoin (BTC) near $70,000 After $2.4 Billion ETF Inflow
Bitcoin approached $70,000 last week — boosted by a $2.4 billion inflow into U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs over six days — amid growing optimism about U.S. regulatory changes. The cryptocurrency briefly rose +1% before settling at $68,720. Reputable “alt coins” like Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), and Solana (SOL) all are trading as if Bitcoin is ready to break toward all-time highs.
Expectations of more favorable crypto regulations after the November 5th Presidential Election, with pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump seemingly leading in the race, have driven inflows. Bitcoin’s recent +10% weekly gain marks its strongest performance in over a month.
“ETFs have been a decentralizing force in TradFi markets that have brought a lot more access and transparency, and importantly, really accelerated in growth during the post crisis 2008, 2009 period…
I find it incredibly meaningful to look at the fact that the bitcoin whitepaper was published on October 31, 2008, and then you have the G20 leaders from around the world meeting to discuss the aftermath of the financial crisis and how do you create more transparency through public reporting…
Then at the same time, DeFi is becoming a reality over the intervening 15 years… Was this a win for Bitcoin? Was this a win for ETPs? To me, the answer is: It’s a win for investors, to the extent we can effectively marry these ecosystems which are solving for the same goals.”
Qualcomm (QCOM) Snapdragon Summit
Qualcomm (QCOM) will host its Snapdragon Summit in Hawaii from Monday through Wednesday, where it is expected to showcase its latest Snapdragon processors. This event will highlight Qualcomm's advancements in mobile and computing technologies.
Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“We're pleased with the growth and trajectory of AI use cases on smartphones. This continued expansion of AI features is a precursor to next-generation smartphones which we believe will become AI-centric with pervasive on-device AI working across applications in the cloud.
Qualcomm is very well-positioned to help drive this transformation across the industry in the coming years. At our upcoming Snapdragon Summit in October, we will reveal details of our next-generation Snapdragon 8 flagship mobile platform, the first to be powered by our custom Oryon CPU.
This platform, combined with new and unparalleled NPU AI capabilities is already exceeding both our and our customers' performance expectations.”
Major Economic Events:
Initial Jobless Claims & Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey highlight this week's economic events.
Monday (10/21): Dallas Fed President Logan Speaks, Kansas City Fed President Schmid Speaks, U.S. Leading Economic Indicators, San Fran Fed President Daly Speaks
Tuesday (10/22): Philly Fed President Harker Speaks
Wednesday (10/23): Existing Home Sales, Fed Beige Book, Fed Governor Bowman Speaks
Thursday (10/24): Cleveland Fed President Hammack Opening Remarks, Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI, S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI
Friday (10/25): Consumer Sentiment, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable-Goods MinusTransportation
What We’re Watching:
Initial Jobless Claims
U.S. unemployment claims fell by 19,000 to 241,000 in the week ending October 12, the largest drop in three months, after reaching a 14-month high the previous week.
This figure came in below market expectations of 260,000, following a spike caused by disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and the labor strike at Boeing.
Median forecasts for this week are 250,000 initial jobless claims (+9,000 week-over-week). It’s important to recognize that jobless claims are becoming a much more important statistic to the broader market as the Fed rate-cutting cycle carries on.
October Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the U.S. dropped to 68.9 in October 2024, down from a five-month high of 70.1 in September and below forecasts of 70.8.
Both current conditions (62.7 vs. 63.3) and expectations (72.9 vs. 74.4) weakened. Inflation expectations for the year ahead rose slightly to 2.9% from 2.7%. View more here.
"Consumers continue to express frustration over high prices. Still, long run business conditions lifted to its highest reading in six months, while current and expected personal finances both softened slightly.”
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Cover Image Credit: Boeing
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