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Together with FIRE ETFs
Welcome to your new week, and Happy St. Patrick’s Day.
Between the next Fed meeting, a potential Russia / Ukraine ceasefire, Nvidia’s GTC Event, and some major earnings reports — we’ve got a lot to break down.
Two quick callouts first:
Check out my recent interview about the FIRE movement.
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Let’s dive in.
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Key Earnings Announcements:
There are still some big names left to report this earnings season — including FedEx, Nike, Micron, Pinduoduo and Nio.
Monday (3/17): SAIC
Tuesday (3/18): Xpeng
Wednesday (3/19): Five Below, General Mills, Signet Jewelers, Williams-Sonoma
Thursday (3/20): Academy Sports & Outdoors, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Jabil, Lands End, Lennar, Nike, Pinduoduo
Friday (3/21): Carnival Corp, Nio
What We’re Watching:
FedEx (FDX)
Source: FedEx Q2FY25 Earnings Deck
FedEx (FDX) reports Q3 fiscal 2025 earnings Thursday, with analysts expecting GAAP EPS of $4.44, up +15% YoY, on revenue of $21.91B — flat versus last year’s $22B. Truist Securities kicked off coverage, saying integrating Ground and Express ops will “drive better efficiency and higher margins in FY26 and beyond.” Shares sit at $278, down -5% YTD.
Truist’s Buy rating and $305 target highlight FedEx’s edge as aircraft fleet renewal wraps, slashing future CapEx needs. After Q2’s $4.05 adjusted EPS beat, focus is on DRIVE savings ($2.2B targeted for FY25) and Freight spin-off buzz. Other analysts see risks in soft B2B demand and potential margin compression.
FedEx Corp. (FDX) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Nike (NKE)
Nike (NKE) reports Q3 fiscal 2025 earnings Thursday, with Wall Street expecting GAAP EPS of $0.29, down -62% YoY, on revenue of $11.01B — an -11% drop from last year’s $12.4B. Jefferies has noted that new CEO Elliott Hill’s is tackling issues “head-on, positioning the brand to outgrow the market and take back market share.” As a result, Jefferies recently lifted its price target to $115 from $75. Shares linger at $89, down -20% YTD.
Nike is fighting to reverse a sales slide (Q2’s revenue of $12.4B was -8% YoY) and reclaim turf from Hoka and On Holdings. After Nike beat Q2 estimates with $0.78 EPS, analysts’ focus shifted to wholesale recovery and fresh product drops. Inventory overhang and China softness could be problematic, but a guidance lift might spark a rebound. A lot of eyes are on the Nike “swoosh” this week.
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Nvidia GTC Event, a potential peace deal in Ukraine, and Baidu’s DeepSeek-like release.
Nvidia GTC Event
Nvidia (NVDA) will host GTC 2025 from March 17-21 at the San Jose Convention Center and online, with CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote streaming March 18 at 1pm ET.
Down -9.4% YTD, questions surrounding Nvidia’s AI dominance and longevity continue to circulate. The lineup for the event features updates on Blackwell Ultra and Rubin, 3,000+ sessions across 20 industries, and a debut Quantum Day on March 20 with quantum pioneers like D-Wave, IonQ, and Rigetti. Nvidia’s CUDA-Q could pair AI with quantum for breakthroughs like faster drug design.
Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore says Blackwell delays are easing and shipments could double Q2’s pace — believing that upcoming guidance for NVDA will be solid. China’s a wild card: Citi pegs $9B-$11B in sales at risk from trade rules — but U.S. demand could potentially bridge that gap either way. After a $5B profit haul last quarter (with ~75% margins) — the market is eager to see if Nvidia will reveal a major catalysts during this year’s GTC Event.
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Here’s a link to the event’s preview video and here’s the star-studded speaker list.
Potential Peace Deal Between Russia and Ukraine
Source: Getty Images / BBC
President Trump stated that the United States and Russia are discussing the division of assets between Ukraine and Russia to end the three-year war. He plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday about the matter, including land and power plants. Trump will also seek Putin’s support for a 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine has already accepted, though Russia has made additional demands. Russian officials insist on keeping occupied territories and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, while also rejecting any NATO troops in Ukraine after a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Russia continues military offensives, with new support from North Korea . Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has accused Putin of prolonging the war and ignoring diplomatic efforts, as heavy fighting persists in key regions. At the same time, American politicians argue that President Zelenskyy is just as (if not more) guilty of intentionally prolonging the war.
A major announcement could help partially ease the stock market’s intense negative sentiment.
“We will see if we have something to announce maybe by Tuesday. I will be speaking to President Putin on Tuesday… A lot of work’s been done over the weekend. We want to see if we can bring that war to an end.”
Baidu to Launch DeepSeek-Like Model — at Half the Price
Source: United Top Tech via YouTube
Baidu has launched Ernie X1, a reasoning AI model designed to compete with DeepSeek’s R1 model at half the cost. The company also introduced Ernie 4.5, claiming it outperforms OpenAI’s GPT-4.5 while being significantly cheaper. Baidu made its Ernie AI chatbot available for free ahead of schedule and plans to integrate both new models into its consumer products like Baidu Search.
The launch comes amid growing competition in China’s AI sector, particularly from DeepSeek, which disrupted the market with its cost-effective AI model. Analysts believe Baidu’s cloud infrastructure and AI platform will help it stay competitive despite increasing rivalry.
We’re eager to see what new AI developments come this year — especially out of China. It’s a full-blown arms race at the moment — and price points / CapEx are constantly being questioned.
Baidu Inc. (BIDU) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Citi Research analysts described DeepSeek-R1 as a “disruptive debut” to the industry, and noted that companies have been announcing new releases or upgraded versions of various AI models, which may “have pushed Baidu to accelerate its release schedule. Using its cloud infrastructure and AI cloud’s Qianfan foundation model platform, “Baidu likely will retain its competitiveness despite intensified competition among models amid lowering entry barriers,” they said in a note.”
Major Economic Events:
All eyes are on a retail sales rebound and Powell’s rate cut outlook.
Source: The Street
Monday (3/17): Business Inventories, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Home Builder Confidence Index, U.S. Retail Sales
Tuesday (3/18): Building Permits, Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts, Import Price Index, Industrial Production
Wednesday (3/19): Fed Chair J. Powell Press Conference, FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Thursday (3/20): Existing Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, U.S. Leading Economic Indicators
Friday (3/21): N/A
What We’re Watching:
FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Source: CME FedWatch
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, keeping the fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% as policymakers weigh inflation risks, trade policies, and economic uncertainty.
With inflation still above the Fed’s target level of +2%, and tariffs potentially adding more price pressures, Powell’s tone could dictate how markets react. The market is begging for more clarity about if there will be 2, 3, 4, or even 5 rate cuts this year.
“[Powell will] communicate a heavy dose of patience… Chair Powell is likely to sound cautiously optimistic on the economy, but point to a cloudy outlook since policy uncertainty is high.”
Retail Sales (Just Released)
After January’s -0.9% drop, investors were watching February’s retail sales for signs of a consumer spending rebound. Economists were expecting a +0.6% gain, easing fears of a slowdown.
As of this morning (Monday) — the retail sales data was just released with a +0.2% print. This weak result has raised concerns about slowing economic momentum — and potentially even shifting Fed rate-cut expectations.
“The belt-tightening in January followed a relatively impressive holiday season... The pullback might say more about the strong end to 2024 rather than a bend in consumer spending.”
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