- GRIT
- Posts
- 👉 Can Q1 Finish Strong?
Together with WisdomTree
Welcome to your new (and shortened) week in the markets.
During crazy times like these, it’s best to stay well-informed. If you want full access to our Week in Review editions, monthly livestreams , portfolio access, monthly stock deep dives, and more — consider upgrading your subscription.
Let’s dive right in.
Position Portfolios for Structural Defense Growth
Geopolitical uncertainty is rising and global defense spending is accelerating alongside it. A multi-year modernization cycle is underway, reshaping the investment landscape beyond short-term headlines.
WisdomTree’s Defense Suite of ETFs provides targeted, globally diversified exposure to companies supporting today’s evolving security needs—from advanced technologies to next-generation defense systems.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Consumer brands highlight this shortened week in the markets.
Monday (3/30): Progress Software
Tuesday (3/31): McCormick, Nike
Wednesday (4/1): Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, MSC Industrial
Thursday (4/2): Lindsay Corporation
Friday (4/3): Market Closed for Good Friday
What We’re Watching:
Conagra Brands (CAG)
Conagra Brands (-9.7% YTD) reports Q3 FY2026 earnings this week before the bell… with investors watching pricing power, volume trends, and margin recovery across its packaged food portfolio.
Last quarter, Conagra reported mixed results as organic sales declined on softer volumes, partially offset by pricing actions. Gross margins improved YoY as input cost pressures eased, while operating margins expanded on productivity initiatives and supply chain efficiencies.
The company continues to lean on brand strength across frozen, snacks, and staples (Healthy Choice, Birds Eye, Slim Jim), while navigating a more price-sensitive consumer environment and increasing promotional activity across grocery stores.
I’ll be watching for:
Signs of volume stabilization vs. continued trade-down behavior
Progress on margin expansion as inflation moderates
Updates to FY guidance amid shifting consumer demand
Commentary on retail inventory levels and promotions
“For those of you who might be newer to our story, just a quick minute or 2 on who we are as a company. Conagra is $12 billion in organic net sales and virtually all of our revenue comes from the United States. We are squarely a domestic company with 92% of our revenue coming from the U.S. And we compete in highly attractive categories with a long-term history of growth like frozen food, where we're one of the biggest players in the world.”
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Nike (NKE)
Nike Inc. (-19.3% YTD) reports Q3 FY2026 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the company can stabilize growth and show early signs of a turnaround after a difficult stretch for the stock.
Wall Street expects roughly ~$11.2B in revenue and ~$0.28–$0.29 EPS, implying flat sales and a sharp earnings decline YoY as margin pressure, tariffs, and promotional activity continue to weigh on profitability.
Nike enters this print under pressure, with shares near multi-year lows and down roughly ~20% over the past year, as investors question the pace and credibility of its turnaround strategy.
Key areas I’ll be watching:
Progress on the turnaround strategy under CEO Elliott Hill
Demand trends in North America vs. continued weakness in China
Gross margin trajectory amid discounting and tariff headwinds
Wholesale vs. direct-to-consumer mix reset
“We’re in the middle innings of our comeback.”
Nike Inc. (NKE) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Apple 50th Anniversary, more geopolitics, and TSA agents are getting paid today.
Apple (AAPL) 50th Anniversary
Apple Inc. will celebrate its 50th anniversary this week, marking five decades since its founding by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne in 1976.
The company is commemorating the milestone with global events and messaging that reflect on its evolution from a personal computing pioneer to one of the most influential technology companies in the world. Over the past five decades, Apple has reshaped multiple industries – from computers and smartphones to wearables and digital services – while building one of the most valuable ecosystems globally.
For investors, the anniversary comes at a pivotal time, with Apple navigating slower hardware upgrade cycles, increasing competition in AI-enabled devices, and growing reliance on its high-margin services segment.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Apple has always been about combining technology and the liberal arts to create products that enrich people’s lives.”
Geopolitics Remain Primary Focus
Source: New York Times
President Trump Trump escalated pressure on Iran, warning the U.S. would destroy key oil infrastructure — including Kharg Island — if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened and a deal is not reached soon. The threat marks a sharp intensification in rhetoric as the conflict enters its fifth week, with the U.S. also reportedly weighing potential ground operations to secure critical energy assets.
Kharg Island is central to Iran’s oil exports, handling roughly 90% of crude shipments, making it a high-stakes target with major implications for global energy markets. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, keeping supply constrained and pushing oil prices higher.
Iran has rejected U.S. proposals so far and continues to deny active negotiations, highlighting the widening gap between both sides. Markets are increasingly sensitive to each headline, with oil volatility rising as investors weigh the risk of further escalation versus a potential diplomatic breakthrough.
The broader takeaway: energy markets are now directly tied to geopolitical developments, and any move — escalation or de-escalation — could have immediate and significant macro impact.
“US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that “over time,” the US will “retake” control of the Strait of Hormuz. He said “more and more ships” are going through narrow waterway on a daily basis, as individual countries cut deals with the Iranian regime, and that the oil market is well supplied.”
TSA Agents Set to Receive Pay, Travel Lines Hopefully Speeding Up
Sources: Annabelle Gordon | AFP | Getty Images
Transportation Security Administration officers are set to receive paychecks as early as Monday after working for weeks without pay due to the ongoing partial government shutdown. The announcement came from the Department of Homeland Security, which said the payment process has already begun.
Donald Trump said the executive branch would move forward with payments without waiting for Congress to approve funding, marking an unusual step amid the ongoing budget standoff. The shutdown has already begun to impact travel, with longer security lines reported at airports across the country.
The move provides short-term relief for TSA workers but does not resolve the broader funding dispute in Washington. Until a formal agreement is reached, operational disruptions and uncertainty around federal agencies are likely to continue.
“Tens of thousands of TSA employees have been working without pay since DHS funding lapsed on Valentine's Day. The department's shutdown reached 45 days on Monday, eclipsing the record 43-day shutdown last fall that affected all of the federal government.”
Major Economic Events:
March job report and retail sales highlight this week.
Monday (3/30): Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, New York Fed President John Williams speaks
Tuesday (3/31): Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Consumer confidence, Fed Gov. Michael Barr speaks, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks, Job openings, S&P Case-Shiller home price index
Wednesday (4/1): ADP jobs, Fed Gov. Michael Barr speaks, ISM manufacturing, Retail sales, Retail sales ex-autos, S&P final manufacturing PMI, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks
Thursday (4/2): Initial jobless claims, U.S. trade deficit
Friday (4/3): S&P final services PMI, U.S. employment report, U.S. hourly wages, U.S. unemployment rate
What We’re Watching:
Non-Farm Payrolls
The U.S. economy lost 92K jobs in February, marking the largest decline in four months and a sharp downside surprise versus expectations for a +59K gain. The print follows a downwardly revised +126K increase in January, with prior months also revised lower, reinforcing a softer trend in hiring.
Weakness was broad-based across sectors. Healthcare employment fell by 28K, largely driven by strike activity, while declines were also seen in manufacturing (-12K), transportation & warehousing (-11K), information (-11K), and federal government (-10K). On the positive side, social assistance (+9K) continued to show modest growth.
Revisions further dampened the picture, with December and January employment combined revised down by 69K, underscoring a weaker underlying labor market trajectory. On net, payroll growth across 2025 has been largely flat.
Economists expect the following this week:
Nonfarm Payrolls: -92K vs. +126K prior
Prior Revisions: -69K combined (Dec + Jan)
“This report suggests the labor market is no longer just cooling – it may be starting to soften more meaningfully.”
Retail Sales
U.S. retail sales fell 0.2% MoM in January, marking the first decline since October and a modest pullback following a flat reading in December. The drop was largely driven by weakness in autos (-0.9%), gasoline (-2.9%), apparel (-1.7%), and electronics (-0.6%), pointing to softer discretionary demand at the start of the year.
However, the underlying picture was more resilient. Strength in non-store retailers (+1.9%), furniture (+0.7%), building materials (+0.6%), and miscellaneous stores (+2.0%) helped lift the control group (core retail sales) by +0.3%, a key input for GDP calculations.
On a yearly basis, retail sales remained solid, rising 3.2% YoY, suggesting consumer spending is slowing but not breaking.
Economists expect the following this week:
Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% vs. 0.0% prior
Control Group Sales: +0.3% vs. -0.1% prior
Retail Sales (YoY): +3.2%
“The consumer is becoming more selective, but core spending remains firm enough to support continued economic expansion.”
WisdomTree Disclosures: Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund before investing. For a prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus containing this and other important information about the fund, call 866.909.9473 or visit WisdomTree.com/investments. Read the prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus carefully before investing.
There are risks involved with investing, including possible loss of principal. Foreign investing involves currency, political and economic risk. Funds focusing on a single country, sector and/or funds that emphasize investments in smaller companies may experience greater price volatility. Investments in emerging markets, currency, fixed income and alternative investments include additional risks. Please see prospectus for discussion of risks.
WisdomTree Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC, in the U.S.
The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
This content is sponsored by NEOS Investments. The creator is compensated by NEOS to discuss NEOS ETFs. This content is for informational purposes only, and is not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice, and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Before investing, carefully review the NEOS ETFs prospectus at neosfunds.com.
Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.
Cover Image Source: Win McNamee/Getty Images
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION
No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.
The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.
Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.
By using the Site or any related social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.
Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy
If you have any questions please contact us at [email protected]