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👉 Craziest Crypto Weekend of All Time
IYRI, Oscar Health, Big Banks, Taiwan Semi
Austin Hankwitz
19 Jan
Welcome to your new week.
Anyone else wake up Saturday morning with a pit in their stomach realizing if they threw $200 into TRUMP coin they could have $6K? Ahh, 2025 is just getting weirder and weirder.
Full transparency, I absolutely tossed $3K into TRUMP coin Saturday morning for fun. If it goes to $100, I’ll triple my money. If it goes to $0, I have a funny story to tell at a party one day.
Regardless of your thoughts on TRUMP coin — I absolutely cannot wait for what’s the come with crypto. We are likely closer to the end of this cycle than the beginning of it, but there are some seriously exciting announcements on the way!
I also invested $5K into a new single stock this week — I’ll share more below.
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Portfolio Updates (YTD Performance):
Kicking off the portfolio updates section of this week’s newsletter with a few new positions I’ve added to my portfolio.
👉 Oscar Health (OSCR) — a health insurance company built around a full-stack technology platform enabled by AI. Oscar offers individual and family plans as well as white-labeled technology solutions that power the industry through +Oscar.
Q4 earnings will be shared the first week of February, but reflecting upon their Q3 earnings — 1.65M members enrolled in their insurance plans, a +68% increase YoY. During the quarter they piloted an AI tool that extracts patient data to prevent fraud, waste, and abundance — positioning them for a lower Medical Loss Ratio over time (sub 80%).
They also used AI to enhance member speed of care, including a feature that pre-populated preventative screening recommendations based on medical history. This company is AI-enabled and will continue to see upside utility from the technology in 2025 and beyond.
They’re also going after an under-represented demographic, Latino-Americans, with their Bena Salud tech solution. This is why 1 / 3 of their members are Spanish-speaking.
The stock is $16 / share right now — $4B market cap, $3.5B enterprise value. This company is expected to deliver $200M in adj. EBITDA this year, and $450M in 2025.
2024 is the first year they’ll be GAAP profitable, with $30M in net income — Wall Street expects $250M in net income in 2025. At $3.5B in enterprise value, this company is trading at only 8X forward EBITDA.
Not “8X forward EBITDA without any growth.” Not “8X forward EBITDA with no path to GAAP profitability.”
8X forward EBITDA growing revenue at +45% in 2023, +55% in 2024, and +25% expected by Wall Street in 2025.
They report earnings on February 4th, I’ve already begun building a small position of 350 shares with an average cost of $14.17 per share, and depending on what they report I’ll consider doubling the position.
👉 NEOS Real Estate High Income ETF (IYRI) — the newest fund by NEOS that offers high monthly income through a data-driven call option strategy on ETFs that seek to track the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Capped Index.
The play here is simple — REITs were expected to outperform in the short-term while the Fed began their rate cutting cycle in September 2024. This was true, but only for a little bit. After Trump was elected in November, the 10-year yield began trending higher, taking mortgage rates with it.
Lower mortgage rates were the anticipated catalyst for higher-priced REITs — now that mortgage rates are climbing, the opposite is true. REIT prices are falling.
Assuming we can’t predict when the 10-year yield will subside and begin to tick lower, having a position in an ETF like IYRI allows us to collect monthly income (profits) while simultaneously having exposure to REITs that will inevitably have their day in the sun.
IYRI allows investors to collect monthly income until REITs pop, then also participate in the upside as IYRI holds a diversified portfolio of REITs across nearly every industry.
I’ve opened a position in this ETF as well.
The year-to-date performance of the stocks in my Dividend Growth Portfolio sits at +2.7% — somehow outperforming both the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500. As you can see from the screenshot above, it seems like my “Long Risky” section of the portfolio is what’s driving this outperformance in the short-term.
It’s also apparent that my Berkshire Hathaway position is carrying the team forward — during the volatility we experienced throughout the last few weeks in the market, BRK.B was mostly stable.
Crypto seems to be bouncing back well — let’s see what Q1 brings!
Week in Review — Too Long, Didn’t Read:
UnitedHealth Group’s MLR continues to climb, Taiwan Semiconductor expects to double AI-related revenue in 2025, BlackRock’s stock continues to dramatically outperform the S&P 500 since IPO, Trump is trying to save TikTok, three ETFs that I’ve shared with you all got spotlighted by Bloomberg, Big Banks have delivered well in their earnings reports, Core Inflation saved the market this week, and Retails Sales decelerated a bit.
Key Earnings Announcements:
UnitedHealth Group’s MLR continues to climb, Taiwan Semiconductor expects to double AI-related revenue in 2025, and BlackRock’s stock continues to dramatically outperform the S&P 500 since IPO.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $100.8 billion, an increase of +7% YoY
Operating Income: $7.8 billion, an increase of +1% YoY
Profits: $5.8 billion, an increase of +4% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“The people of UnitedHealth Group remain focused on making high-quality, affordable health care more available to more people while making the health system easier to navigate for patients and providers, positioning us well for growth in 2025.”
My Takeaway
Despite significant increases in their medical loss ratio (MLR) over the last three years, UNH continues to expect their operating income to grow by +35% in 2025 vs 2022 (the last year it had before their MLR increase issues). This +12% compounded annual growth rate aligns well with it’s revenue growth during the same period.
If their MLR returns to 2022 levels, it could unlock up to a 40% increase in profits now that the organization has grown so dramatically since. 2025 could be the year this materializes. Aided by continued revenue growth and operating efficiencies, UNH should grow their profits / earnings by 12-15% this year — even if they only recover a fraction of their MLR.
Bullish investors are optimistic they’ll be able to decrease their MLR materially, unlocking that +40% increase in profits. If that’s the case, this stock can quickly climb back to all-time highs (+25% upside potential).
No shares, but thinking about it.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $26.9 billion, an increase of +39% YoY
Operating Income: $13.2 billion, an increase of +64% YoY
Profits: $11.6 billion, an increase of +57% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“Our business in the fourth quarter was supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies. Moving into first quarter 2025, we expect our business to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI-related demand.”
My Takeaway
AI-specific revenue came in ahead of Wall Street’s expectations, reaching 15% of total revenue generated during 2024. This strength is expected to continue, with TSMC looking to double their AI-related revenue in 2025.
The company guided gross margins to be similarly strong in Q1 of 2025. Despite laying out a number of headwinds, the company is still guiding for 60% gross margins this year — above Wall Street’s 57% forecast.
Management explicitly denied recent rumors of potential AI order cuts, and indicates tight supply and reiterated its strong capacity expansion. The company forecasts a 5-year compounded annual growth rate of +40% starting from 2024 — this is huge.
No shares, but definitely adding to my watchlist.
BlackRock (BLK)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $5.7 billion, an increase of +23% YoY
Operating Income: $2.0 billion, an increase of +31% YoY
Profits: $1.7 billion, an increase of +21% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“In the 25 years since our IPO, BlackRock has delivered a 21% compounded annual total return for our shareholders, compared to 8% in the S&P 500. BlackRock enters 2025 with more growth and upside potential than ever. This is just the beginning.”
My Takeaway
That quote from their earnings release speaks volume — delivering +21% compounded annual returns since IPO compared to the S&P 500’s only +8% is incredible. Perhaps it’s time I open a position?
The company’s iShares business drove BLK to record long-term net inflows in 2024, while BLK’s money market flows also experienced record growth. This momentum translated into +4% base fee organic growth. On top of the accelerating trajectory, BLK’s adjusted operating margin increase by nearly +3%. Throughout 2025, Wall Street expects re-risking trending to accelerate, positively impacting their base fee organic growth.
Wall Street is optimistic about their stock accelerating into 2025 as the firm takes profitable market share through its secular growth businesses (ETFs, fixed income, multi-asset, alternatives, technology, etc.) They also argue the scale advantages of the business, especially global distribution, will play a big part in this market share capture.
Wall Street forecasts +3-6% organic growth for BLK across the business which should translate into low-to-mid double-digit EPS growth.
No shares, but adding to the watchlist.
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Trump is trying to save TikTok, three ETFs that I’ve shared with you all got spotlighted by Bloomberg, and Big Banks have delivered well in their earnings reports.
TikTok Shut Down, Trump Vows to Attempt a Revival
President-elect Donald Trump announced he will issue an executive order to grant TikTok a 90-day extension to comply with a law requiring its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell its U.S. operations or face a nationwide ban. By the time you are reading this — it actually might already be back online on your phone!
The extension would push the current Sunday deadline to allow time for potential divestiture and legal agreements. Trump emphasized the need for careful review, and he hopes that there could even be a co-ownership between the United States and China.
The Biden administration has deferred enforcement of the law, leaving the matter to Trump's incoming administration. As you may know — The Supreme Court recently upheld the ruling against TikTok, and concerns remain over TikTok's ties to the Chinese government and data privacy.
“I’m asking companies not to let TikTok stay dark! I will issue an executive order on Monday to extend the period of time before the law’s prohibitions take effect, so that we can make a deal to protect our national security. The order will also confirm that there will be no liability for any company that helped keep TikTok from going dark before my order.
Americans deserve to see our exciting Inauguration on Monday, as well as other events and conversations.
I would like the United States to have a 50% ownership position in a joint venture. By doing this, we save TikTok, keep it in good hands and allow it to say up. Without U.S. approval, there is no Tik Tok. With our approval, it is worth hundreds of billions of dollars - maybe trillions.
Therefore, my initial thought is a joint venture between the current owners and/or new owners whereby the U.S. gets a 50% ownership in a joint venture set up between the U.S. and whichever purchase we so choose.”
Bloomberg’s Top 25 ETFs to Watch
Bloomberg just released their Top 25 ETFs to watch in 2025 — and I’m thrilled to see three names that I’ve repeatedly said to you all: VOO, IBIT, and CSHI!
VOO is a no-brainer. All you need to hear is a recent quote from Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas:
“Somehow $VOO is outdoing itself this year with +$13b in 11 days to start 2025. That's more than 99.7% of ETFs took in ALL OF LAST YEAR. It's also 25% of all net flows and a mere $20b away from dethroning $SPY. If it keeps up this pace it will take in about $280b this year.”
You all know IBIT — it’s the iShares Bitcoin ETF and I have held plenty of that. More recently though, I’ve switched my long-term Bitcoin plan to be about NEOS’ Bitcoin High Income ETF (BTCI).
The NEOS Enhanced Income 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (CSHI) is a great way that I like to have cash sitting in my portfolio — without it just sitting doing nothing. With a distribution rate of 5.54%, I am always doing better than if I had that money in a HYSA.
It feels great holding names that the “smart money” is also all excited about!
Other ETFs that were included in the report: $CBOJ, $RSP, $LFAE, $IEUR, $BLOK, $INFL, $VOO, $LBO, $NUKZ, $JAAA, $TAX, $MSTZ, $RSHO
Bank of America + Other Major Banks Largely Topped Estimates
Source: Bloomberg
This week, major banks reported strong earnings, led by Bank of America, which exceeded expectations due to robust investment banking and interest income. Bank of America’s Q4 profit more than doubled to $6.67 billion, or 82 cents per share, surpassing the 77 cents anticipated. Revenue climbed +15% to $25.5 billion, fueled by a +44% surge in investment banking fees and higher trading results. Net interest income, a key metric, rose 3% to $14.5 billion, exceeding forecasts by $170 million.
Bank of America (BAC) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs also beat estimates — driven by their Wall Street units. Morgan Stanley's results are yet to come, keeping investor attention on overall banking sector performance.
JPMorgan made history as the first U.S. bank to surpass $50 billion in annual profit. Meanwhile, Citigroup achieved record annual revenue in three of its five core segments: wealth, U.S. personal banking, and services.
Citigroup (C) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Goldman Sachs (GS) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“The four giant lenders that reported full-year results Wednesday notched their second-most profitable year ever in 2024, trailing only Joe Biden’s first year as president. The group’s trading and lending revenue benefited from interest-rate moves, while investment banking fees jumped 32% from a moribund 2023 — with executives predicting that’s just the start.”
Major Economic Events:
Core Inflation saved the market this week, and Retails Sales decelerated a bit.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Inflation showed signs of slowing in December 2024, with the annual core CPI rate easing to +3.2%, slightly below the forecast of +3.3%. The overall consumer price index rose +0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of +2.9%, aligning with expectations.
Energy prices drove much of the increase, surging +2.6% for the month, while food prices rose +0.3%. Shelter prices, which weigh heavily in the CPI, climbed +4.6% year-over-year — marking their smallest gain since early 2022.
Stock market futures surged and Treasury yields dropped as the data suggested the Federal Reserve might not raise interest rates in the near term. However, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings fell by -0.2% for the month, highlighting ongoing challenges for workers.
Analysts noted that while inflation is moderating, persistent pressures in areas like shelter and vehicles underscore the difficulty of reaching the Fed's +2% inflation target.
“Today’s CPI may help the Fed feel a little more dovish. It won’t change expectations for a pause later this month, but it should curb some of the talk about the Fed potentially raising rates… And judging by the market’s initial response, investors appeared to feel a sense of relief after a few months of stickier inflation readings.”
Retail Sales
US retail sales rose +0.4% in December and November’s sales revised upward to a 0.8% gain — capping a strong holiday season. Control-group sales, which exclude volatile categories like food and gasoline and contribute to GDP calculations, climbed 0.7%, the highest in three months.
Source: Bloomberg
Ten of 13 retail categories saw increases, including furniture, sporting goods, and autos, supported by lower interest rates and manufacturer incentives. Gasoline station receipts also rose, driven by higher pump prices. While wages outpaced inflation, high living costs and potential tariffs could influence future sales trends. Year-over-year, retail sales grew 3.8%, moderating compared to previous years but still defying expectations amid inflation and borrowing costs.
"All told, this year's holiday shopping season was even stronger than last year's, as a resilient labor market has continued to support household income growth… As long as households remain employed and are earning income, they likely will continue to spend. That leaves the outlook for retail sales in a healthy place as we kick off 2025."
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