👉 Dollar General's Turn-Around Story

Together with FIRE ETFs

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Portfolio Updates (YTD Performance):

I’m optimistic that the stock market (and maybe the crypto market) has bottomed in the short-term. Although it’s impossible to know for sure, I’m hoping the worst is behind us before a retest of the 200-day moving average. 

As a quick reminder, I predicted a handful of big market themes for 2025 — one of which was a massive uptick in volatility. Unfortunately, this prediction has served to be true as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 were down as much as -10% and -13%, respectively, from their recent all-time highs this week. 

Specifically, I called for “multiple double-digit pullbacks in the indices throughout 2025” — and this prediction has now become “half” true. Emphasis on the word “multiple” in that sentence. To be honest, I had no idea it was going to happen as quickly as it did, which is why I wasn’t positioned defensively. Generally speaking, I have a very defensive stock portfolio — with a heavy weighting of it being invested into Berkshire Hathaway and Dividend Growth Stocks. 

With that being said, my “Magnificent Seven” section of my portfolio is down -15% YTD, with Tesla in particular kicking my butt. 

Here’s where my head is at — I’m very much in a “sell the rip” mentality. I know I’m up +100%, +200%, +500% or more on some very large positions in my portfolio. I intend to use our relief bounce back to the 200-day moving average as an opportunity to take profits. There are a few ways this relief bounce can take place…

1. We bounce back to the 200-day moving average, fall back lower and put in a higher low, then rally back above the 200-day moving average and put in new all-time highs — which could mean we’re back to the races again. 

2. We bounce back to the 200-day moving average, fall back lower and put in a higher low, then rally back above the 200-day moving average and put in a lower high — solidifying the market top in February before going lower again. 

3. We bounce back to the 200-day moving average, fall back lower and keep going lower — making the 200-day moving average relief bounce the last chance to “sell the rip.”

Scenario 3, in my opinion, is the least likely scenario to play out. However, this is the scenario I’m going to assume plays out — which means I’ll be “selling the rip” around this moving average. 

Once sold, I look forward to accumulating shares of QQQH, SCHD, BRK.B, SLV and KTEC. 

I’m building a watchlist of quality companies I want to own for the long-term if we see a material pullback (beyond just a -10% correction) in the markets and I encourage you to do the same. I’ll share my list in the coming weeks.

For crypto, it’s business as usual. Let’s continue to wait and see what happens — do we drop lower and solidify $105K being this cycle’s market top? Or do we hold steady around $75-80K and put in a new all-time high? 

Here’s some hopium for you crypto-bros:

The dollar is approaching a 'death cross' where the 50 day moving average (blue) drops below the 200 day moving average (red). Since 2015, this signal has always been bullish for Bitcoin.  The median 9-month forward return in such cases is +200%, much higher than the typical 57%.

Shoutout to Timothy Peterson on X for the research. 

One day at a time, as always, with cryptocurrency. Have a plan, and stick to it.

Week in Review —TLDR:

Adobe continues its fall from grace with underwhelming AI-specific revenue, Dollar General is ready to turn things around reaffirming +10% EPS growth in 2026, Dick’s Sporting Goods is repurposing 70% of their new stores in 2025. , the tech sell-off has been painful (but not shocking), Klarna officially filed for its blockbuster IPO, Cloudflare highlighted its partnerships with OpenAI and Nvidia during its investor day, inflation for consumers and producers came in with favorable results, and consumer sentiment continues to slump.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Adobe continues its fall from grace with underwhelming AI-specific revenue, Dollar General is ready to turn things around reaffirming +10% EPS growth in 2026, and Dick’s Sporting Goods is repurposing 70% of their new stores in 2025.

• Adobe (ADBE):

Key Metrics

Revenue: $5.7 billion, an increase of +10% YoY

Operating Income: $2.1 billion, an increase of +138% YoY

Profits: $1.8 billion, an increase of +192% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Our continued innovation and diversified go-to-market strategy drove a record Q1, with new AI-first standalone and add-on innovations exiting the quarter with over $125 million ending ARR book of business. Our customer-focused strategy, leading product portfolio and strong cash flow position us for sustainable long-term growth and increased market share.”

My Takeaway

• Dollar General (DG):

Key Metrics

Revenue: $14.9 billion, an increase of +25% YoY

Operating Income: $6.3 billion, an increase of +200% YoY

Profits: $5.5 billion, an increase of +332% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We were pleased with the underlying performance of the business in the fourth quarter, including improved execution and solid top-line results. We have fortified the foundation of this business over the last year and are confident in our plans and initiatives for 2025 and beyond, as we look to further build on this base and create sustainable long-term value for our shareholders.”

My Takeaway

• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $3.9 billion, an increase of +1% YoY

Operating Income: $386.9 million, an increase of +4% YoY

Profits: $299.9 million, an increase of +1% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Our fourth quarter was an exceptionally strong finish to another great year. With a 6.4% Q4 comp we delivered the largest sales quarter in Company history. For the full year, our comps increased 5.2%, we drove meaningful EBT margin expansion, and we gained significant market share.”

My Takeaway

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The tech sell-off has been painful (but not shocking), Klarna officially filed for its blockbuster IPO, and Cloudflare highlighted its partnerships with OpenAI and Nvidia during its investor day.

• Tech Sell-Off Recap

The tech sector has experienced a massive sell-off, wiping out -$2.7 trillion in market value from the seven largest U.S. tech companies over the past three weeks. The downturn was triggered by fears of a global trade war, sparked by new tariffs from President Trump, along with concerns about rising unemployment and a potential recession. The Nasdaq dropped -4.9% last week, heading for its worst weekly performance since September.

Tesla has suffered the biggest percentage decline, losing -33% of its value, while Nvidia has seen the largest dollar loss at -$577 billion. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta have also faced significant declines — with Apple alone shedding -$529 billion in market cap (shoutout to Warren Buffet for selling the top).

Investors initially reacted positively to Trump’s re-election, expecting deregulation and favorable tax policies — but the latest economic uncertainty has reversed those gains. Analysts warn that continued trade tensions and potential regulatory shifts could further impact the valuations of major tech firms. For now, these are simply the -10% range of corrections that we warned of heading into 2025.

• Klarna (KLAR) Officially Files for IPO

Klarna filed for a U.S. IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol KLAR but has not disclosed pricing details. The Swedish buy now, pay later lender, once valued at $46 billion, saw its valuation drop to $6.7 billion in 2022 but has since rebounded to an estimated $15 billion. Klarna competes with Affirm and Afterpay while expanding its financial services, including banking licenses and lending products.

The IPO highlights the ongoing trend of European tech firms opting for U.S. listings over domestic exchanges. Klarna’s revenue grew +24% to $2.8 billion in 2023, and it returned to profitability with an adjusted operating profit of $181 million. However, market volatility and economic uncertainty, including tariffs and consumer sentiment shifts, could impact its IPO performance.

• Highlights from Cloudflare (NET) Investor Day

Cloudflare’s Investor Day highlighted its strategic focus on AI integration, executive hires, and market expansion. The company is leveraging partnerships with OpenAI and Nvidia to enhance its AI-powered cloud security and performance solutions. Recent leadership appointments signal a commitment to scaling AI-driven operations, strengthening its competitive position.

Investors responded positively, with analysts highlighting Cloudflare’s potential to disrupt the AI infrastructure space. AI spending is projected to exceed $500 billion by 2027, reinforcing the importance of Cloudflare’s investments. As AI adoption accelerates — Cloudflare is positioning itself as a key player in AI-driven cloud security and performance optimization.

Major Economic Events:

Inflation for consumers and producers came in with favorable results, and consumer sentiment continues to slump.

• Inflation for Consumers (CPI)

US inflation eased to +2.8% in February, slightly below expectations, with core inflation at +3.1%. The consumer price index (CPI) rose just +0.2% for the month, providing some relief amid concerns about the impact of tariffs. Shelter costs — which make up a large portion of the CPI — increased +0.3%, while food and energy prices also rose +0.2%. Used vehicle prices jumped +0.9%, but airline fares dropped -4%.

The stock market showed mixed reactions, while Treasury yields rose as investors weighed inflation trends against policy uncertainty. Economists warn that tariffs could still fuel inflation in the coming months, despite the current easing. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting but may resume cuts later this year if inflation continues to decline.

• Inflation for Producers (PPI)

US wholesale inflation stalled in February as the producer price index remained unchanged, following a +0.6% rise in January. A -1% drop in trade services contributed to the stagnation, but goods prices excluding food and energy rose +0.4%, the highest in over two years. Key categories influencing the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, such as hospital inpatient care and portfolio management costs, showed notable increases.

Economists suggest that while consumers may be shielded from some price hikes, weak demand for goods later this year could pressure retailers’ margins. The report comes as new tariffs on Chinese imports raise concerns about future price increases. Meanwhile, jobless claims showed little change — reflecting continued labor market resilience.

• Consumer Sentiment

US consumer sentiment plunged to a more than two-year low in March, with the University of Michigan index falling to 57.9 from 64.7 in February. Consumers' long-term inflation expectations surged by the most since 1993 — reaching +3.9% for the next five to ten years. Tariffs were a major concern, with 48% of survey respondents mentioning them and expecting inflationary pressure.

The drop in confidence was widespread across political groups, with the biggest decline among Democrats. Consumers also reported the dimmest outlook for their personal finances on record, raising fears of weaker spending. Economists warn that heightened uncertainty and economic anxiety could significantly slow economic growth.

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