👉 Earnings Season Back in Full Swing

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Welcome to your new week.

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Cheers to the two-year anniversary of the current bull market!

Here are three images we think you’ll like.

1) Perspective on the length of this bull market:

2) The 2-year rate of change is in the 95th percentile for the last 70 years:

3) Visualizing the length and magnitude of the S&P 500's secular bull and bear markets:

Key Earnings Announcements:

Big banks, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and Taiwan Semi headline this week’s earnings reports.

Monday (10/14): N/A

Tuesday (10/15): Bank of America, Citi, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Goldman Sachs, State Street, United Airlines, UnitedHealth Group

Wednesday (10/16): Abbott, ASML, Discover, Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp

Thursday (10/17): Blackstone Group, Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, TSMC

Friday (10/18): Ally, American Express, Procter & Gamble

What We’re Watching:

1. Bank of America (BAC)

Bank of America (BAC) reports Q3 earnings tomorrow, amid heightened attention from investors following Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) sale of over 9.5M BAC shares last week.

Despite the sell-off, Noah's Arc Capital Management remains bullish, citing the company’s AI advancements could drive cost savings and potentially deliver an earnings surprise. Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating and Wall Street analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus, seeing upside potential in the company’s consumer trends. However, many view Buffett's sales might signal caution ahead of a possible bear market, as Bank of America’s stock continues to underperform compared to the S&P 500.

• Analysts expect $0.76 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $25.23 billion.

• You can explore the most recent BAC investor release here and here.

2. Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix (NFLX) is set to release its Q3 earnings on Thursday after the closing bell, with analysts anticipating 37% Y/Y profit growth and a 14% boost in revenue. NFLX stock has climbed over +96% in the past year and nearly +50% YTD, maintaining a Buy recommendation from most analysts.

Key drivers, such as password-sharing limits, ads, and pricing strategies, are expected to support growth. However, opinions vary — while Oppenheimer and Morgan Stanley are bullish on sustained revenue gains, Citi Research remains Neutral, highlighting challenges in reaching a $25 EPS target by 2025. Despite mixed ratings, Netflix's stronghold in streaming remains a consensus view.

• Analysts expect $5.09 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $9.76 billion.

• You can explore the most recent NFLX investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs

Speculation is rising over the Fed skipping a rate cut, and Apple Vision Pro continues to see struggles.

• Fed Rate Cuts: On Hold for Now?

Speculation is rising that the Fed will skip further rate cuts in November. September’s jobs report, showing a dip in unemployment and strong payroll additions, along with higher-than-expected CPI and PPI readings, suggest the Fed may hold steady.

Minutes from the Fed's September meeting revealed that some officials favored smaller rate cuts, reinforcing this outlook. With the likelihood of no November cut now at 11.4% — up from 3% just a week ago — investors are bracing for a possible rate hold amid strong labor and inflation data.

• Apple’s (AAPL) Vision Pro Battles Low Demand

  

Since the Vision Pro’s February launch, app releases have slowed, and sales have struggled to reach 100,000 units per quarter. Priced at $3,499, the mixed-reality headset has found limited appeal amid inflation and high-interest rates.

Bloomberg reports Apple (AAPL) may launch a lower-cost Vision headset as early as next year, priced around $2,000, which could omit features like EyeSight to cut costs. Apple aims to boost sales by expanding its mixed-reality offerings, potentially introducing smart glasses and AirPods with cameras. By broadening its product line, Apple hopes to recover its substantial investments in visual intelligence technology.

Major Economic Events:

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey and retail sales are in focus.

Monday (10/14): Columbus Day Holiday, Bond Market Closed, Fed Reserve Governor Waller Speaks

Tuesday (10/15): Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Fed Governor Kugler Speaks

Wednesday (10/16): Import Price Index

Thursday (10/17): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Home Builder Confidence Index, Industrial Production, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, U.S. Retail Sales

Friday (10/18): Building Permits, Fed Reserve Waller Speaks, Housing Starts

What We’re Watching:

1. Empire State Manufacturing Index

September’s NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 11.5 — marking the highest level since April 2022. This surprise leap from August’s -4.7 reading signals growth in New York’s manufacturing activity for the first time in nearly a year. New orders are up to 9.4 from -7.9 and shipments rising sharply to 17.9 from 0.3.

Economists are predicting a very moderate result of 0.5 points for the October results.

2. Retail Sales

On Thursday, the September retail sales report is due – economists are forecasting a 0.2% rise. This follows August’s unexpected 0.1% increase – beating the projected decline and highlighting resilient consumer spending. Strong retail data could further support the “no cut” stance going around for the Fed’s next meeting — keeping rates steady unchanged as some view the 50bps cut was large enough.

Economists are estimating +0.3% monthly growth in retail sales, +0.1% when excluding autos.

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Cover Image Credit: Foundry / TechHive / Ben Patterson

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