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Together with X Funds
Welcome to your new week.
And just like that… earnings season is back. Meanwhile — the S&P 500 is hovering near all-time highs, Bitcoin keeps setting new records, and alt coins have begun to rip.
It’s an exciting time in the market, and this newsletter will tell you everything you need to know for the week ahead.
Let’s dive in!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
ASML and Netflix highlight this week along with big bank earnings.
Monday (7/14) Equity Bancshares, Fastenal, FirstBank, Simulations Plus
Tuesday (7/15): Albertsons, AngioDynamics, Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), BlackRock, Citi, Ericsson, Fulton Financial, J.B. Hunt, JPMorgan Chase, Kestra Medical, Omnicom Group, Pinnacle Financial, State Street, WaFd Bank, Wells Fargo
Wednesday (7/16): Alcoa, ASML, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Kinder Morgan, Morgan Stanley, M&T Bank, PNC, Progressive, Prologis, Sandvik, SL Green, Synovus, Triumph Financial, United Airlines
Thursday (7/17): Abbott, Bank OZK, Cintas, First Industrial Realty Trust, First National Bank, Great Southern Bank, Interactive Brokers, Marten, Netflix, Pepsico, Simmons Bank, SLB, Synovus, TSMC, Travelers, U.S. Bancorp, Webster Bank, Wipro
Friday (7/18): Ally, American Express, Autoliv, Charles Schwab, Comerica, Huntington, Novartis, Regions, Rexford Industrial, 3M, Truist
What We’re Watching:
ASML (ASML)
Source: ASML Investor Deck
ASML reports Q2 earnings Wednesday before U.S. markets open. The Dutch semiconductor-equipment giant sits at the heart of the AI-driven chip cycle and is expected to deliver solid growth rather than explosive gains, with analysts forecasting ~$8.72B revenue (+27–29% YoY) and ~$5.80–5.94 EPS (+37–39% YoY).
Despite ASML’s near‑monopoly in EUV lithography, volatility remains due to large, infrequent orders and heightened geopolitical risks — notably U.S. export restrictions on advanced tools to China. The Q2 results will be closely monitored for commentary on tariff impacts, customer spending patterns, and whether the backlog signals stable demand or cautious investment.
Investors will also look at gross margin trends, projected around 50–53%, and updates on ASML’s aggressive buyback program, as the company balances capital returns with continued R&D investment.
“We are working with our customers and suppliers to try to achieve that any direct impact of tariffs on our results is limited.”
ASML (ASML) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix reports earnings Thursday after the bell. Shares are up +40% YTD, as the streaming giant continues to benefit from its password-sharing crackdown and the early traction of its ad-supported tier. Last quarter, Netflix posted +16% YoY growth in paid subscribers — the strongest since 2020 — while operating margins expanded to 28%, beating Street estimates.
This quarter, investors will be focused on ad tier momentum, international growth, and free cash flow, which hit a record $2.1B in Q1. Content cadence is another key watch, with new seasons of Bridgerton and The Umbrella Academy helping drive engagement, alongside global hits like Baby Reindeer. Also in focus: the rollout of live sports (WWE deal, golf exhibition series, etc.) and whether that will add a new leg to subscriber growth.
I’ll be listening for guidance on 2H content spend, clarity on monetization plans for mobile gaming, and commentary on how price increases are impacting churn in key regions.
“We believe we’re still in the early days of building a large, sustainable advertising business.”
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) Stock Performance, 5-year chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
The EU delayed retaliatory tariffs with the hope of getting a trade deal, Crypto Week has officially arrived for Congress, an important FDA meeting could send positive or negative signals to the healthcare industry, and Trump is sending Patriot Missiles to Ukraine.
EU Delayed Retaliatory Tariffs, Hopes for Trade Deal
Source:FT / Matthys / Shutterstock
The EU has officially delayed its planned retaliatory tariffs on €21B worth of U.S. goods — including motorcycles, chicken, and apparel — originally set to take effect July 15, in an effort to salvage trade talks following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports starting August 1.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the suspension will last until “early August,” citing a preference for a negotiated solution. Behind the scenes, EU leaders remain split on whether to fast-track a basic trade pact or hold out for stronger terms. German officials expressed optimism, noting that negotiations were already “fairly advanced,” while business groups across the bloc warn that a prolonged standoff could severely damage exports and jobs.
Meanwhile, the Commission is preparing a second wave of potential counter-tariffs – now narrowed to €72B from the original €95B — which could escalate the situation if no agreement is reached.
“A trade war within the West would weaken all of us in the face of the global challenges we confront together.”
Crypto Week is Here for Congress
Source: Axios
Bitcoin surged past $120,000 on Sunday, reaching a record high of $121,921 amid strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and growing optimism around U.S. crypto regulation. The rally is largely driven by institutional investors, who poured $1.18 billion into Bitcoin ETFs in a single day—the highest inflow of 2025 so far. The momentum coincides with the U.S. Congress launching “Crypto Week,” where lawmakers will begin debating major legislation, including the Genius Act focused on regulating stablecoins.
President Trump’s pro-crypto stance and involvement in the industry have further fueled investor sentiment. Analysts say that longer-term holders are locking up supply, while regulatory clarity continues to boost confidence across the digital asset market.
“Bitcoin accounted for $2.7 billion of the inflows, while Ethereum saw its fourth-largest week on record with $990 million. Ethereum has now posted 12 consecutive weeks of inflows, which collectively represent 19.5% of its total AuM, double Bitcoin’s 9.8% in relative terms.”
FDA Meeting to Reauthorize the Prescription Drug User Free Act
The FDA is set to hold a public meeting this week to officially launch discussions on reauthorizing the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) for fiscal years 2028–2032. First enacted in 1992, the program enables the FDA to collect user fees from pharmaceutical companies to support and accelerate the review of new drug applications.
This initial meeting kicks off negotiations with industry stakeholders, healthcare providers, and patient advocates regarding potential updates to review timelines, fee structures, and approval standards. With the current PDUFA authorization expiring in 2027, biopharma executives and investors will be paying close attention to how these talks unfold.
The healthcare sector has been under pressure, and this meeting could be a catalyst for clarity across the industry.
“PDUFA has become a cornerstone of FDA’s ability to efficiently review innovative therapies — its renewal shapes the pace of drug development for years to come.”
Trump to Send Patriot Missiles to Ukraine
Source: Valentyn Ogirenko / Rueters
President Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. will supply Ukraine with additional Patriot air-defense systems — a move funded by the European Union — signaling a major shift in U.S. policy and military support amid intensifying Russian airstrikes.
Trump stressed Ukraine’s urgent need for enhanced air defenses and hinted at a broader “major announcement” on Russia during Monday’s upcoming meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The announcement comes as part of a potential NATO-led procurement plan, where NATO nations would acquire U.S. weapons for Ukrainian use — a strategy backed by both U.S. and European lawmakers.
Senators Blumenthal and Graham, alongside Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg, recently met with European officials in Rome to lay the groundwork for expanded arms deals. The senators are also pushing for a sweeping sanctions package that would allow Trump to impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries like China, India, and Brazil if they continue supporting Russia’s wartime economy.
"We will send them Patriots, which they desperately need, because Putin really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice and then bombs everybody in the evening. But there's a little bit of a problem there. I don't like it.”
Major Economic Events:
A massive reading of the Consumer Price Index is in the queue this week.
Monday (7/14): None Scheduled
Tuesday (7/15): Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, Core CPI Year Over Year, CPI Year Over Year, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan Speech, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Fed Governor Michael Barr Speech, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speech, Boston Fed President Susan Collins Speech
Wednesday (7/16): Capacity Utilization, Core PPI, Core PPI Year Over Year, Fed Beige Book, Fed Governor Michael Barr Speech, Industrial Production, New York Fed President John Williams Speech, PPI Year Over Year, Producer Price Index
Thursday (7/18): Business Inventories, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler Speech, Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speech, Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speech, Home Builder Confidence Index, Import Price Index, Import Price Index Minus Fuel, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Retail Sales Minus Autos, San Francisco Fed President Daly Speech, U.S. Retail Sales
Friday (7/19): Building Permits, Consumer Sentiment (Prelim), Housing Starts
What We’re Watching:
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. consumer inflation rose for the first time in four months, with headline CPI up +2.4% YoY in May, slightly below expectations of +2.5%. On a monthly basis, CPI increased just +0.1%, undershooting the +0.2% forecast. Rising prices for food, transportation services, and used vehicles were offset by continued energy deflation, as gasoline and fuel oil prices fell sharply once again.
Core CPI — which excludes food and energy — held steady at +2.8% YoY, matching April’s pace and marking the lowest annual core reading since 2021. On a monthly basis, core inflation also rose just +0.1%, softer than the +0.3% gain expected. The report reinforces the Fed’s view of gradually easing inflation but also underscores the challenge of reaching the +2% target amid lingering price stickiness in shelter and services.
Economists expect the following this week:
CPI (June): +0.2% month-over-month and +2.5% year-over-year
Core CPI (June): +0.3% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year
“We think the composition of price increases will likely resemble May’s report, with only modest tariff pass-through in goods categories offset by continued softness in services. Scraped price data show a mixed picture, with firming in categories like appliances and furniture, but declines in airfares and used cars.”
Retail Sales
Source: The U.S. Census. Bureau
U.S. retail sales fell -0.9% MoM in May, marking the largest monthly decline in four months and a sharper drop than the expected -0.7%. April’s figure was also revised lower to -0.1%, pointing to softening consumer momentum as shoppers brace for rising prices tied to looming tariffs The biggest pullbacks came from auto dealers (-3.5%), building materials (-2.7%), and gas stations (-2.0%), suggesting that both discretionary and essential spending categories took a hit.
Economists expect the following this week:
Retail Sales (June): +0.2% month-over-month
Retail Sales ex-Autos (June): +0.3% month-over-month
“While consumers are still spending, they are doing so at a more cautious pace.”
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