👉 Earnings Season Meets Hot Inflation

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Welcome to your new week.

JPMorgan and TSMC open earnings season with the bar already high, Apple makes its long-delayed push into the home, and September's CPI shows how much $4 gasoline is still feeding into prices.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Big banks and the world's largest chipmaker kick off third-quarter earnings season.

Monday (10/12): No major U.S. reports scheduled.

Tuesday (10/13): Albertsons, Citigroup, Domino's Pizza, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo.

Wednesday (10/14): ASML, Bank of America, BlackRock, Fastenal, Morgan Stanley, Progressive, State Street.

Thursday (10/15): Alcoa, BNY, Charles Schwab, Ericsson, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt, Marsh McLennan, PNC Financial, TSMC, U.S. Bancorp.

Friday (10/16): Citizens Financial, M&T Bank, Regions Financial, Travelers, Truist.

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What We’re Watching:

1. JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

JPMorgan Chase (+3.3% YTD) reports Tuesday before the open, with shares closing Friday at $332.99. Consensus tracked by Perplexity Finance calls for $5.93 in EPS on $51.23 billion of revenue, up from $5.07 a year ago. The setup is unusually balanced: capital markets remain strong, loan growth is healthy, credit is holding up, and the Fed just raised rates for the first time in three years. Tuesday will show whether all four can keep working at once.

Last quarter was exceptional. Reported revenue reached $57.3 billion and every major business posted record revenue, while Markets revenue jumped 35% to $12.1 billion and investment-banking fees rose 30% to $3.3 billion. Net interest income increased 10% to $25.5 billion. Reported EPS of $7.70 was boosted by a $4.6 billion Visa gain and other investment gains; excluding significant items, EPS was $6.14 with a 23% return on tangible common equity.

This quarter, watch whether that capital-markets momentum carried through and whether September’s rate hike changes the forward NII picture. Management already expects trading revenue and investment-banking fees to each rise by a mid-to-high-teens percentage, while full-year NII guidance sits around $105.5 billion and the card net charge-off rate around 3.2%. Because the Fed move came late in the quarter, the bigger signal may be what JPMorgan says about Q4: higher rates could lift interest income, but only if deposit costs and credit losses stay contained.

• Analysts expect $5.91 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $51.22 billion.

• You can explore the most recent JPM investor release here and here.

2. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

TSMC (+49.2% YTD) reports Thursday before the U.S. open, with shares closing Friday at $453.31. The top line is already known: monthly sales put third-quarter revenue at a record NT$1.49 trillion, up 50% year over year and ahead of Wall Street’s NT$1.46 trillion forecast. Analysts expect net income to jump 64% to roughly NT$741 billion. With revenue already clearing the hurdle, Thursday is really about how much of that AI-driven growth is reaching the bottom line.

Last quarter, revenue rose 36% to NT$1.27 trillion, while gross margin reached 67.7% and operating margin topped 60%. Management raised its 2026 revenue-growth outlook to slightly above 40% and increased its capital budget to as much as $64 billion as AI demand remained “extremely robust.” TSMC is not spending in hopes that demand arrives — it is adding capacity because customers are already asking for it.

The pressure point is the 2-nanometer ramp. Management expects the transition alone to dilute gross margin by 3 to 4 percentage points and guided Q3 gross margin to roughly 66%, down from 67.7% last quarter, with overseas fabs creating additional pressure. If margins hold near or above that level while TSMC keeps raising its growth outlook, it would show that AI demand and pricing power are outrunning the cost of its expansion. If margins slip despite record revenue, investors may start questioning how much of the recent operating leverage can last.

• Analysts expect $4.45 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $45.68 billion.

• You can explore the most recent TSM investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Apple's home push, the IMF's new outlook, and Tesla's long-delayed Roadster.

• Apple’s Home Push

Apple launches its "Welcome home" lineup Tuesday, hosting an in-person Apple Experience for press and creators in New York's Tribeca neighborhood at 9 a.m. ET. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman expects three devices: a smart home hub with a roughly 6-inch display, a new HomePod mini, and a new Apple TV 4K, all built around Siri AI.

This is the first major product expansion under CEO John Ternus, who took over September 1. The hub reportedly waited for Siri AI, which began rolling out with iOS 27 on September 14, and is designed to recognize who is speaking and show that person's calendar and messages.

Watch pricing, ship dates, and how much of the experience requires an iPhone or paid services. A hub that only controls lights adds little; one that becomes the household's Siri AI terminal strengthens the ecosystem case. iPhone Duo pre-orders open Friday.

• The IMF’s New Outlook

The IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings run October 12–18 in Bangkok, the first held outside Washington in three years. The World Economic Outlook press briefing is set for 9 a.m. Tuesday in Bangkok, or 10 p.m. Monday in New York, followed that morning by the Global Financial Stability Report. The Fiscal Monitor arrives Wednesday, and Kristalina Georgieva holds a fireside chat with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday morning in Bangkok, late Thursday night in New York.

In July, the IMF projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, calling it a V-shaped recovery from the war's hit. It also raised its global inflation forecast to 4.7% for 2026, from 4.1% in 2025, and saw U.S. growth at 2.3%. Reuters reports the Fund has signaled little change to its 3% call, with possible downgrades for Ukraine and Gulf economies hit by sharply reduced energy exports.

Watch the inflation revisions and the policy advice. Georgieva has said many central banks may need to keep a "prudently hawkish bias," while public debt is headed above 100% of global GDP before 2030. The Warsh conversation is the bigger market event: it lands two weeks before the Fed's October 27–28 meeting, after a unanimous September hike.

• Tesla’s Long-Delayed Roadster

Tesla plans to unveil its next-generation Roadster Thursday after severe weather pushed the outdoor event back from October 1. The reveal had been set for the Waco, Texas, area, but Tesla has not yet named a venue or start time for the new date. October 15 is the sixth reveal date Tesla or Elon Musk has set for the car this year.

The car was first shown in 2017, and the promises have only grown since. Tesla originally announced a $200,000 base price and a $250,000 Founders Series. Reservations require a $50,000 deposit, though Tesla has removed pricing from its website. Musk has teased an optional SpaceX package with cold-gas thrusters, and production is expected to begin in 2027.

For investors, the Roadster is a brand statement, not a volume driver. Watch for confirmed pricing, a delivery date, and whether the demo is live and credible. The Paris Auto Show also opens Monday with Tesla's Cybercab on display alongside BYD, Changan, Chery, Geely, XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor, a reminder that the competitive fight is in mass-market EVs and autonomy.

Major Economic Events:

Inflation and spending data test the Fed's case for another hike.

Monday (10/12): Columbus Day, with the bond market closed and stock market open; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks.

Tuesday (10/13): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; ADP weekly employment update; Redbook retail sales; September existing home sales; September federal budget; OPEC monthly oil report.

Wednesday (10/14): MBA mortgage applications; September CPI and core CPI; Federal Reserve Beige Book.

Thursday (10/15): Initial and continuing jobless claims; September retail sales; September producer price index; October Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys; August business inventories; NRF holiday sales forecast.

Friday (10/16): September import and export prices; September industrial production and capacity utilization.

What We’re Watching:

1. September CPI

Wednesday's consumer price index is the Fed's last major inflation reading before its October 27–28 meeting. Policymakers raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%–4% in September, their first hike in more than three years, and the median official expects one more increase this year. The Wall Street Journal's survey calls for headline CPI to rise 0.6% for the month and 3.7% from a year earlier.

Inflation has followed oil since the war began in late February. Headline CPI rose from 2.4% in February to 4.2% in May, then cooled to 3.4% in July and August. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, slipped to 2.4% in August, its lowest reading this year, though the monthly core gain was 0.3%. Gasoline rose about 7% in September, so the headline increase is largely priced in.

Core is the market-moving number. A 0.2% monthly gain would support the view that the next hike can wait until December, which is where markets have moved their expectations. A 0.3% or hotter reading, especially with another jump in airfares, would revive the case for back-to-back hikes in October. Watch whether energy costs are spreading into transportation and other services.

Economists expect the following:

• CPI (YoY): 3.7% vs. 3.4% prior

2. September Retail Sales

Thursday's retail sales report tests whether consumers kept spending after August's surprise. The Wall Street Journal's survey calls for a 0.4% increase, following August's 1.2% jump, with sales excluding autos expected to rise 0.6%. The report lands alongside producer prices and the National Retail Federation's holiday forecast.

August's 1.2% gain was the largest since March and beat the 0.8% Reuters consensus, after a revised 0.5% decline in July. The control group, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services, surged 1.4%, its biggest gain since September 2024. Goldman Sachs raised its third-quarter GDP estimate by half a point to a 3.0% annualized rate after the report.

Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, so higher gasoline prices can inflate the headline without more shopping. Continuum Economics expects sales to rise 0.1% overall but fall 0.1% excluding autos and gasoline. The control group decides the read: a solid gain alongside hot CPI would strengthen the Fed's hiking case, while a decline would show high prices and higher rates are biting.

Economists expect the following:

• Retail Sales (YoY): +0.4% vs. +1.2% prior

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