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Happy Sunday.
And to all of you mothers out there — Happy Mother’s Day! This weekend is all about you, and we hope you’ve had the opportunity to enjoy yourselves.
What a great week in the markets. Two of my long-time callouts, HIMS and OSCR, absolutely ripped after their earnings releases. My Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings are seeing great relief, and we’ve received very positive news regarding the China & US trade negotiations. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s The Investing Week Ahead for us to break down those trade negotiations in more detail.
Let’s see if it’s going to be a positive summer for the market! If you want access to my portfolio whenever you want, click here to sign up for our premium membership.
Take a moment and sign up for the free Daily Upside newsletter below, and then read on for your full breakdown of the past week in the markets!
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Portfolio Updates (YTD Performance):
The stock section of the Dividend Growth Portfolio is finally in the green, up +0.4% year-to-date. This is +3.9% above my dollar-cost averaged S&P 500 (as shown above via VOO) and +4.9% above the Nasdaq-100’s performance during the same period of time. As you all know, both Berkshire Hathaway and my “Long Risky” subsections of the portfolio are carrying the team. Turns out “AI 2.0” is real!
Very pleased to see overarching green across the entire stock section of the portfolio now.
I’m still sitting on about one and a half Bitcoin, or $150K worth. As I’ve been very vocal over the last several months about my plans to exit 85-90% of this position while Bitcoin trends closer to $120-140K. I plan to take those proceeds and redistribute them elsewhere throughout my portfolio.
For example, I’ve already begun to redistribute $20K of the my $81K in Bitcoin proceeds by deploying them toward the Double Finance “Large Market Beaters” strategy.
It’s worth about $6K at the moment, but my goal is to get this much closer to $10-15K over the coming weeks as I redeploy this capital. Additionally, it’s important to recognize I’m dollar cost averaging into this strategy on a daily / weekly basis and now just dumping $20K into it during a single trading session.
I opened my original position back in September of 2024 with $5K, and I’m sitting on $277 of unrealized capital gains (+4.8% return). The S&P 500 during the same period of time has only returned +1.8%. I very much plan to outperform the S&P 500 using this strategy on Double Finance over the coming months and years!
My $75K position in ETH (that was worth as low as $25K) is now worth $50K! Haha, nice. As you all might remember, I “washed” these capital losses by selling my ETHA position for a $40K loss, then used those proceeds to buy ETH directly.
I’m not saying I perfectly timed the bottom of ETH, allowing me to “wash” a major loss against future gains… but damn that +70% rebound sure looks good! Regardless of what my “return” might be here, it’s important to remember I’m still in the red on this trade as I started with $75K and now it’s only worth $50K.
I continue to believe ETH will trend back to all-time highs sooner rather than later, and the momentum we’ve experienced recently is very assuring of that! Let’s first get back to $4,000 — then see where things take us. Would love to see $5-10K per ETH over the coming 12-18 months.
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Week in Review — TLDR:
HIMS announces 2030 guidance, Oscar Health plans to eat Aetna’s lunch, and Palantir to deliver $1.7B in free cash flow this year.
Trump landed a big win with the UK, crypto is ripping, Google’s mid-week decline seemed like an overreaction, Trump is planning to lift AI chip restrictions, the FOMC continues to refuse rate cuts and the US trade deficit jumped to a record high.
Key Earnings Announcements:
HIMS announces 2030 guidance, Oscar Health plans to eat Aetna’s lunch, and Palantir to deliver $1.7B in free cash flow this year.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $586.0 million, an increase of +110% YoY
Operating Income: $57.9 million, an increase of +483% YoY
Profits: $49.5 million, an increase of +346% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“During the first quarter, our subscriber base grew to nearly 2.4 million, with over 1.4 million utilizing personalized solutions. Revenue increased 111% year-over-year as we continued to deliver access to more precise, personalized care at scale.
This momentum, combined with our strong track record of execution, reinforces our confidence in driving sustained long-term growth across five core levers: deepening personalization, expanding into new specialties, elevating the subscriber experience with access to high quality follow up care, forging innovative partnerships, and entering new geographies. Investments across these priorities underpin our updated 2025 guidance as well as our new long-term targets of at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in Adjusted EBITDA by 2030.”
My Takeaway
The largest single stock position in my portfolio behind Tesla continues to be a major winner. Here’s a post I shared about the company in 2022 at $7 / share, delivering a +670% return since publication. And as you’ve read above, this company is just getting started!
HIMS delivered a strong quarter where total revenue more than doubled and adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled — driven by strong growth of their online channel. Excluding the contributions of GLP-1 offerings, revenue growth remained strong at +30% YoY. Total subscribers increased +38%, with over 1.4M people using personalized solutions. Monthly online revenue per average subscriber saw accelerating growth, up more than +50%, to $84.
The company reiterated their full year revenue guidance and raised their adjusted EBITDA outlook. FY2025 revenue should be around $2.4B, and their adjusted EBITDA should be around $310M. Management noted their sexual health business showed some signs of weakness.
Management introduced their long-term target of $6.5B in revenue and $1.3B of adjusted EBITDA by 2030. The company plans to achieve that by focusing on executing across five key growth levers, including expanding the breadth of personalized solutions, adding new specialties, elevating the precision of care, building strong partnerships, and expanding globally.
I’m more bullish than ever. If this company is delivering $1.3B in adjusted EBITDA by 2030, a 25X multiple on that puts their market cap around $33B, a 3X from here. Long HIMS!
Oscar Health (OSCR)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $3.0 billion, an increase of +42% YoY
Operating Income: $297.1 million, an increase of +60% YoY
Profits: $275.5 million, an increase of +55% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“We delivered continued top-line growth and bottom-line performance with significant year-over-year increases in revenue and net income. We continue to expect meaningful margin expansion this year as we deliver superior value to our members and partners.”
My Takeaway
Oscar Health’s stock rallied +30% this week as the company reported strong results. Despite missing their medical loss ratio expectations due to patient pay delivery, the company beat their adj. EBITDA expectations due to a strong reduction in SG&A costs (-0.26%). Adjusting for the patient pay delivery headwind, their medical loss ratio was in-line with Wall Street’s expectations.
Revenue was +7% above consensus estimates driven by stronger-than-expected membership growth (strong retention, above market enrollment, and SEP member additions). However, management is now assuming SEP enrollments are eliminated and expect membership to increase during Q2 before taking a hit during the back-half of the year.
2025 guidance was maintained for all metrics. Higher inpatient utilization was favorably offset by pharmacy spend, with outpatient and professional largely in line with expectations. Regulations could drive meaningful downward revisions in members. On a positive note, pricing could be in the double digits in 2026 and Aetna, who currently has over 1M lives and 5% market share, is exiting the exchange business in 2026 while Oscar has a significant overlap with Aetna’s member base, implying potential market share gains.
There are a lot of moving parts to this one, but I continue to believe in what Oscar is doing (AI-enabled healthcare). Long Oscar!
Palantir (PLTR)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $883.8 million, an increase of +39% YoY
Operating Income: $176.0 million, an increase of +117% YoY
Profits: $217.7 million, an increase of +105% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
“Our Rule of 40 score increased to 83% in the last quarter, once again breaking the metric. We are in the middle of a tectonic shift in the adoption of our software, particularly in the U.S. where our revenue soared 55% year-over-year, while our U.S. commercial revenue expanded 71% year-over-year in the first quarter to surpass a one-billion-dollar annual run rate.
We are delivering the operating system for the modern enterprise in the era of AI. Consequently, we are raising our full-year guidance for total revenue growth to 36% and our guidance for U.S. commercial revenue growth to 68%.”
My Takeaway
Palantir posted their Q1 results and they beat expectations across the board while simultaneously raising their 2025 guidance yet again as the company continues to capitalize on the AI demand wave. Total revenue came in at $883M, well-above Wall Street’s $860M expectation, with their US commercial revenue segment hitting $1B in annual run-rate (+71% growth YoY). Total customer count grew +39% all while still seeing multi-year multi-million dollar deals in the pipeline with 139 deals worth $1M or more and 31 deals worth $10M or more — pointing to continued success with their “land and expand” strategy.
The company continues to gain traction in Europe with its recent NATO partnership as more organizations look into scaling more use cases across operating systems. Adjusted operating income came in at $390M, above Wall Street’s $360M expectations — while free cash flow came in at $370M, well-above Wall Street’s $255M expectation. Their “Rule of 40” score continues to elevate, coming in at 83% this quarter compared to 81% last quarter.
2025 revenue should come in around $3.9B as AIP continues to gain further traction with more enterprises heading down the AI use case path over the coming years. On the bottom line, adjusted operating income is now estimated to come in around $1.7B, with free cash flow expected to come in around the range $1.7B range as well.
It’s obvious this company is growing like a weed, but at 100X P/E it feels over-valued. Who knows where it’ll be in 5 years from now, but I don’t plan to jump in eagerly anytime soon. No shares.
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Trump landed a big win with the UK, crypto is ripping, Google’s mid-week decline seemed like an overreaction, and Trump is planning to lift AI chip restrictions.
Trump’s First Big Trade Deal
President Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a limited trade agreement, the first since the U.S. imposed broad tariffs on global imports. The deal reduces or exempts tariffs on select goods like British steel and cars, and opens U.K. markets to U.S. beef, ethanol, and other agricultural products. While not a full trade pact, it allows both leaders to claim progress amid economic concerns and market volatility.
Trump emphasized the benefits to American exporters, estimating $5 billion in new opportunities, while Starmer expressed gratitude and highlighted future cooperation. The deal excludes many broader tariffs still in place and remains legally incomplete, pending further negotiations. Critics say the agreement is more symbolic than impactful — given the relatively small volume of U.K.-U.S. trade compared to the EU.
Regardless — this was a massive moment for the market and it shows that Trump is willing to actually make deals if the terms seem fair enough. We’re eager to hear what happens in Switzerland this weekend when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with China’s top negotiator.
“It’s very conclusive and we think everyone’s going to be happy,” Trump said. “Many countries want to make a deal, and many countries are very unhappy that we happened to choose this one.”
Bitcoin Holds Above $100K, Ethereum Rose to Best Week Since 2021
Bitcoin held above $100,000 this week, climbing over +6% and extending its longest winning streak since November, amid strong ETF demand and global trade optimism. Ether surged 26% for the week — its best performance since May 2021 — following Ethereum’s successful Pectra upgrade, which improved staking and reduced network fees. Altcoins like Solana also rallied — though most remain down significantly year-to-date compared to Bitcoin.
Analysts cite a shift in market structure driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, attracting institutional and retirement fund flows, while altcoins still depend on risk-on retail capital. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a "neutral" asset amid macroeconomic uncertainty, including U.S. tariffs and recent trade developments. Experts suggest investors stay focused on Bitcoin until broader capital rotation benefits other crypto assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price, YTD Performance, Seeking Alpha
Ethereum (ETH) Price, YTD Performance, Seeking Alpha
“There were definitely moments over the last 12 years where we thought, man, should we put 80% of our balance sheet into crypto — into Bitcoin specifically.”
Concerns Over Google’s AI Competition
Google is facing a real threat as its search traffic on Apple’s Safari browser has declined for the first time in over 20 years, a shift attributed to rising use of generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity. This revelation, shared during a federal antitrust trial, caused Alphabet’s stock to drop over -7%, wiping out about $250 billion in market value. The company’s dominant search position, recently at 89.7%, has slipped from its previous 93% share in 2022, suggesting a slow but persistent erosion. Google has already lost two antitrust cases in nine months, both aiming to break up its search monopoly.
Despite these legal threats, growing competition from AI services may prove to be the bigger disruption. Wall Street is responding cautiously, with Alphabet’s stock now trading at a 12-year low valuation relative to earnings. While Google still generates immense free cash flow, its weakened dominance and looming disruption have made investors more wary.
My personal hunch? It feels like this news was overblown. Google is an absolute monster, and I think Apple is — in some ways — trying to play catch-up when it comes to innovation. I still hold both, but I’m more eager to add more shares of GOOG.
Alphabet Inc. Stock Performance (GOOG), YTD Chart, Seeking Alpha
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Performance, YTD Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Apple… has incentive for Google to appear weaker in search, while also emphasizing increased search competition and the significant impact to Apple’s business.”
AI Chip Restrictions to Be Lifted
Source: Bloomberg
The Trump administration plans to rescind the Biden-era "AI diffusion rule," a complex global framework that restricted AI chip exports by categorizing countries into tiers. While measures targeting China will remain or even tighten, the repeal would allow nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to negotiate bilateral chip agreements, potentially reshaping global semiconductor trade.
Trump officials argue the Biden rule stifled innovation and will replace it with a simpler, more flexible policy focused on direct negotiations. This shift could benefit U.S. companies like Nvidia and Oracle, and nations previously restricted under the old framework. However, the new approach may lead to regulatory fragmentation, with each country potentially subject to different policies. Trump’s move signals a transactional shift in U.S. AI policy, emphasizing diplomatic leverage and domestic economic gains over broad-based controls.
“The Biden AI rule is overly complex, overly bureaucratic, and would stymie American innovation. We will be replacing it with a much simpler rule that unleashes American innovation and ensures American AI dominance.”
Major Economic Events:
The FOMC continues to refuse rate cuts and the US trade deficit jumped to a record high.
Fed Meeting and Jerome Powell Speech
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated the Fed won’t rush to cut interest rates due to heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, which is largely in the hands of the White House. The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the third straight meeting, citing increased risks of both inflation and unemployment stemming from President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements, which raised levies on Chinese imports to 145%. With new tariffs temporarily paused and trade talks ongoing, Powell emphasized that policymakers will stay on hold until there's clarity on whether the economy is heading toward recession or entrenched inflation.
Despite darkened consumer and business sentiment, economic fundamentals remain relatively strong, with +177,000 jobs added in April and labor markets described as “solid.” Futures markets suggest an 85% chance of a rate cut by July, though some economists believe September is more realistic — or even later. Powell reiterated that it’s the administration’s responsibility to resolve trade uncertainties, as Fed decisions remain reactive to shifting White House policy.
“Absent a decisive turn in the US economic data, the FOMC seems comfortable remaining on hold indefinitely. The FOMC is waiting for conviction of whether the next move is a cut based on the economy moving towards a recession or whether it’s a move towards more restrictive policy due to high inflation becoming entrenched into the economy.”
U.S. Trade Deficit Jumped to Record High
The U.S. trade deficit hit a record -$140.5 billion in March 2025, driven by a +23.3% surge in imports as companies rushed to bring in goods ahead of President Trump’s July 6 tariff increases. Imports jumped +$17.8 billion in March alone, while exports rose just $500 million, widening the year-to-date deficit by -92.6%. Consumer goods imports, especially pharmaceuticals, reached all-time highs, with increases also seen in apparel, furniture, jewelry, appliances, and textiles.
The net export gap caused a -0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 — the largest drag from trade in over 50 years — while consumer spending rose only +1.8%, the weakest pace since mid-2023. Economists expect imports to slow in Q2, helping GDP rebound, though recession risks remain high, with Goldman Sachs assigning a 45% chance within 12 months.
"We still expect further tariff increases in other areas — e.g. pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and potentially movies — and see a meaningful risk that some of the paused 'reciprocal' tariffs will take effect after all.”
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