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Welcome to your new week.
The time has officially come for the highly-anticipated next Fed rate cut. The Fed’s most recent rate cut was in December 2024, meaning the gap between cuts will be nine months. Historically, when cuts are spaced 5–12 months apart, it’s often a bullish signal for the S&P 500.
Let’s see what happens this time around, and let’s dive into everything you need to know this week!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
Cracker Barrel, Darden Restaurants, General Mills, and FedEx highlight this quiet week of earnings.
Monday (9/15): Dave & Busters
Tuesday (9/16): Ferguson
Wednesday (9/17): Bullish, Cracker Barrel, General Mills, Manchester United
Thursday (9/18): Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Lennar
Friday (9/19): N/A
What We’re Watching:
FedEx (FDX)
Source: FedEx Earnings Deck
FedEx (-19.7% YTD) reports Q1 FY2026 earnings Thursday after the bell, stepping into the spotlight with its cost‐reduction programs and network optimization under greater scrutiny as demand softens in higher-margin B2B segments. Shares have lagged, in part due to tariff pressures, freight volume weakness, and weakening international trade flows.
This cycle, all eyes will be on how well FedEx executes on its Network 2.0 transformation and cost control efforts (including a planned $1B in permanent cost cuts), especially as analysts expect flat to +2% YoY revenue growth and adjusted EPS around $3.65. Key debates will center on margin recovery amid rising labor & fuel costs, the impact of trade policy (particularly China‐to-US lanes), and whether lower capital spend can still support long-term productivity improvements.
I’ll be listening for commentary on free cash flow conversion, the extent to which Express and Ground volumes diverge, and any forward guide on demand trends for freight and premium delivery services.
“We continue to prioritize investments that support increasing efficiency and reducing our cost to serve as opposed to capacity expansion… we can now further reap the benefits of our global network and seek to increase stockholder returns and improve ROIC in the years ahead.”
FedEx Corp. (FDX) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
General Mills (GIS)
Source: General Mills Earnings Deck
General Mills (-21.7% YTD) reports Q1 FY2026 earnings Wednesday after the bell, entering with a tailwind of investor skepticism as cost inflation, shifting demand, and pricing pressures weigh on its packaged foods business. Shares are under pressure amid soft volume trends and consumer trade-downs toward value.
This quarter, analysts will check on how well General Mills executes its Accelerate strategy – especially its Holistic Margin Management (HMM) cost savings program (expected to offset ~3-4% input inflation), innovation in product offerings, and portfolio reshaping via its pet and international segments. Analysts expect a decline in both revenue and EPS YoY (~7% slide) as weakening consumer behavior in North America puts pressure on its core retail food categories.
I’ll be watching for commentary on whether international growth (especially pet foods) can meaningfully cushion the drag at home, how pricing/mix vs volume trends shake out, and management’s guidance on margin recovery and free cash flow conversion.
“We prioritize delivering value and innovation while working hard on cost management – our goal is to stabilize margins even as consumer spending shifts.”
General Mills , Inc. (GIS) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Meta Connect event, Skift Global Forum, and the Stubhub IPO.
Meta Connect
Meta will host its Connect developer conference September 17-18, with a focus on showcasing its next generation of hardware, XR, and wearable innovations as it doubles down on Meta AI and immersive experiences. Enthusiasts are eager for meaningful upgrades to its smart glasses lineup — rumored to include a display-enabled model codenamed Hypernova or Celeste. Reports suggest updated Ray-Ban Meta versions, gesture control via wristband, better battery life, and “super sensing” features are all expected.
I’m curious as to how Meta frames the role of wearables in its “personal superintelligence” vision, how its hardware innovations stack up against Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia, and whether its business model can lean more on recurring value from its developer & content ecosystem. The event could impact a wide range of tech companies, including Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Unity Software, and Qualcomm.
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Meta's description of the main keynote simply states that Mark Zuckerberg will "share the latest on AI glasses and lay out Meta’s vision for artificial intelligence and the metaverse". And last month, Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth teased "big wearables announcements", as well as AI and metaverse software.”
Skift Global Forum
Source: Skift
Skift Global Forum 2025 convenes on September 16 in New York City, bringing together senior leadership across airlines, hotel groups, OTAs, cruise lines, travel tech, media, and tourism boards. It’s one of the most influential industry gatherings – often called “the most powerful room in travel.”
This year’s agenda will spotlight post-COVID recovery in travel demand, sustainability strategies, AI/digital transformation in guest experiences & operations, as well as investment and M&A trends in travel tech. Companies attending will be communicating not just what’s next, but how they’ll execute in an environment of high airfare/labor costs and changing consumer expectations.
“As generative AI moves from theoretical to real world applications, how will companies keep up with consumers? Will agentic AI take over customer service and prove to be a better interface for travel? Will the “tyranny of the search box,” as Skift CEO/founder Rafat Ali has dubbed it, finally be coming to an end?”
StubHub IPO
Source: PYMNTS
StubHub (STUB) is expected to debut on public markets this week, pricing its IPO in the $22–$25 per share range and offering 34 million shares. The online ticket marketplace — spun out of eBay in 2020 and later acquired by Viagogo — comes to market amid renewed investor appetite for consumer platforms with strong brand recognition.
The deal could raise up to ~$850 million and value StubHub north of $10 billion, positioning it as one of the largest consumer-facing IPOs of 2025. With live event demand resilient despite economic uncertainty, investor focus will be on growth in secondary ticketing, fee structures, and StubHub’s ability to compete against Ticketmaster/Live Nation.
“While the IPO market has perked up this year amid investor enthusiasm for deals from the likes of CoreWeave, Circle Internet Group, and Figma, StubHub’s offering might not be greeted with the same enthusiasm. Conditions in the secondary ticket market have grown more competitive this year, StubHub’s profits are down relative to 2024, and the stock looks expensive. Despite StubHub’s dominance of the secondary ticket market, investors might want to avoid this show.”
Major Economic Events:
All eyes on the fed this week with an interest rate decision looming, and a look into retail sales
Source: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst
Monday (9/15): Empire State manufacturing survey
Tuesday (9/16): Business inventories, Capacity utilization, Home builder confidence index, Import price index, Import price index minus fuel, Industrial production, Retail sales minus autos, U.S. retail sales
Wednesday (9/17): Building permits, FOMC interest-rate decision, Fed Chair Powell press conference, Housing starts
Thursday (9/18): Initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, U.S. leading economic indicators
Friday (9/19): San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
What We’re Watching:
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, as expected, but two governors dissented in favor of a cut — the first dual dissent since 1993. Policymakers noted moderating economic activity in H1, a shift from earlier “solid pace” assessments, while inflation remains somewhat elevated and unemployment low.
The Fed reiterated a data-dependent approach, emphasizing that future adjustments hinge on the evolving outlook and balance of risks. Trade-war uncertainty was flagged as a key headwind that could derail progress toward the 2% inflation target.
Economists expect the following this week:
Probability of September rate cut: ~90%
A split fed deciding on a 25bps cut
Below is a look at the markets initial price action surrounding a rate cut:
“Near-term risk is centered on the tension between lagging, weak labor data and the Fed’s response that may not meet the markets’ ‘need for speed’.”
Retail Sales
US Retail Sales rose +0.5% MoM in July, in line with expectations and following an upwardly revised +0.9% gain in June. Core retail sales (ex-autos, gas, building materials, and food services) also climbed +0.5%, topping forecasts of +0.4% and building on June’s +0.8% rise.
Category gains were led by motor vehicles & parts (+1.6%), furniture & home furnishings (+1.4%), sporting goods/hobby/music/book stores (+0.8%), nonstore retailers (+0.8%), clothing (+0.7%), and gasoline stations (+0.7%). Weakness showed in miscellaneous store retailers (-1.7%), building materials & garden equipment (-1.0%), and electronics & appliances (-0.6%).
Economists expect the following this week:
Retail Sales (August, estimated): +0.3% MoM
Retail Sales ex-autos: +0.2% MoM
“Retail spending is holding steady, as the consumer continues to demonstrate their resilience, but the ways in which they are making purchases is changing rapidly… When core retail shopping periods become altered, it becomes clear that things are out of sync between retail and the consumer.”
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Cover image source: Shannon Stapleton / Reuters
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