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Together with FIRE ETFs
Happy Sunday.
The market closed up +5.8% this week, with companies like Tesla and Google reporting their earnings.
Much to review, letās dive into things!
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Portfolio Updates (YTD Performance):
The Dividend Growth Stocksā year-to-date portfolio performance is -4.7%, compared to the S&P 500ās -5.6%. As you can see, Berkshire Hathaway continues to carry the team, as well as our āLong Riskyā subsection. This subsection of the portfolio has 10 names inside in the green, and 12 names outperforming the S&P 500.
I made one trade this week, buying more Tesla stock (roughly three shares) before their earnings. After hearing about their Optimus + Robotaxi efforts my bullish thesis on the company is at all-time highs. Canāt wait to dig into those details below!
Weāre seeing a bit of a resurgence in Bitcoin! As you all know, I sold about 25% of my Bitcoin position at $87K a few weeks ago ($66K worth). The other ~1.7 BTC I own is still riding the wave! I plan to be 80-90% out of this position around the $120-145K range.
Could we go to $200K and beyond? Maybe! Iām not sure. And I donāt care. Iām up six figures on this trade since mid-2023 and Iām eager to revolve those profits out of Bitcoin and into some NEOS Funds. Assuming Iām able to completely cash out of my cryptocurrency during 2025, Iāll have $650-800K to deploy toward the Dividend Growth Stocks portfolio ā of which, a large chunk will go to NEOS Funds!
Iāll be sure to keep everyone updated on when anything of that nature begins to take shape.
Want to see every position inside my stock and crypto portfolio?
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Week in Review ā TLDR:
Google reaffirmed their $75B in CapEx spend + announced a $70B share repurchase program, Tesla is developing a new vehicle, Chipotle is having a hard time getting people to order their burritos, the trade war is increasingly confusing, more drama surrounding Nvidia has begun, Instagram launched its āEditsā app, Tempus AI scored a major cancer research deal, Existing Home Sales sank and the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) points to a slow economy ahead.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Google reaffirmed their $75B in CapEx spend + announced a $70B share repurchase program, Tesla is developing a new vehicle, and Chipotle is having a hard time getting people to order their burritos.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $90.2 billion, an increase of +12% YoY
Operating Income: $30.6 billion, an increase of +34% YoY
Profits: $34.5 billion, an increase of +46% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
āWeāre pleased with our strong Q1 results, which reflect healthy growth and momentum across the business. Underpinning this growth is our unique full stack approach to AI. This quarter was super exciting as we rolled out Gemini 2.5, our most intelligent AI model, which is achieving breakthroughs in performance and is an extraordinary foundation for our future innovation.
Search saw continued strong growth, boosted by the engagement weāre seeing with features like AI Overviews, which now has 1.5 billion users per month. Driven by YouTube and Google One, we surpassed 270 million paid subscriptions. And Cloud grew rapidly with significant demand for our solutions.ā
My Takeaway
Google beat Wall Streetās earnings expectations across the board. Net revenues across Search, YouTube, and Cloud were largely in-line / modestly ahead of expectations, while EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) came in well ahead of expectations. This EBIT beat was driven primarily by cloud efficiency tailwinds, limited compensation growth, and a lower AdTech mix. Their operating margins were able to expand by +2.3% to 33.9% driven by solid revenue growth of +12%, continued expense discipline and favorable revenue mix shift to Search.
With that being said, Management acknowledged the fact their business is not immune to macro pressures. Management also maintained their $75B of CapEx outlook for 2025 ā mainly focused on continued product development of their AI tools. From an operational standpoint, Wall Street remains encouraged by the fact that Gen AI powered searches are proving to be additive to search query volume, and not dilutive as many feared.
Management also announced a $70B share repurchase program as well as a +5% increase to their annual dividend. With operating income +5% above estimates and free cash flow up +13% YoY, this makes a ton of sense to me.
This quarter was incredibly important for the company because it was their opportunity to change the āChatGPT is killing Googleā narrative and provide relief to investors. Googleās advertising business remains strong (+10%) as Search generated $50.7B in revenue during the quarter. I believe Google will be just fine cohabitating with ChatGPT.
Iām more bullish than ever.
Tesla (TSLA)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $19.3 billion, compared to $21.3 billion last year
Operating Income: $399.0 million, compared to $1.2 billion last year
Profits: $409.0 million, compared to $1.4 billion last year
Earnings Release Callout
āAI is a major pillar of growth for Tesla and the broader economy and key to our pursuit of sustainable abundance. Furthermore, AI infrastructure is driving rapid load growth, which, along with traditional utility customer applications, is creating an outsized opportunity for our Energy storage products to stabilize the grid, shift energy when it is needed most and provide additional power capacity.
In the face of near-term profitability hurdles, the low-cost, localized manufacturing base that we have built provides advantages in delivering the best products at the right price to our customers globally. We continue to make critical, high-value investments while maintaining a strong balance sheet during this uncertain period.ā
My Takeaway
While Wall Street continues to expect some near-term headwinds due to macro conditions, tariffs, Elonās polarizing politics, and likely removal of the EV Tax Credit ā their long-term bullish thesis remains intact.
Well, what happened?
Total revenue of $19.3 billion missed Wall Streetās forecast by -4.2%, decreased by -24.8% sequentially, and -9.2% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA of $2.8B (14.6% margin) trailed Wall Streetās $3.3B expectations (16.5% margin) and was down -35.1% sequentially.
Here were a few key takeaways from the call:
Elon expects to allocate far more of his time to Tesla starting in May (taking a step back from DOGE). Unsupervised full self-driving goes live in Austin, TX in June with more launches around the country by year-end. A lower-priced vehicle is on track for 1H25 production, boosting the addressable market for Tesla.
The company now expects to produce thousands of Optimus robots in 2025, and Elon is confident heāll get to 1M units in annual production by 2030. Tesla is forecasting āa couple thousand of dollars per vehicleā in adverse impact in the US when tariffs on autos become effective in May. And the company expects tariffs on the energy business to be outsized compared to the auto business.
This quarter was a rough one. But despite missing estimates, Teslaās stock continued to rally higher. As a long-term investor, I bought 3 more shares ahead of the earnings call. Now my position is 247 shares across all portfolios (including retirement accounts).
Iām so bullish on Optimus, Robotaxis, and everything Tesla is doing to lay the groundwork for a prosperous future for investors.
Chipotle (CMG)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $2.9 billion, an increase of +6% YoY
Operating Income: $479.3 million, an increase of +17% YoY
Profits: $386.6 million, an increase of +13% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
āWhile our first quarter results were impacted by several headwinds including weather and a slowdown in consumer spending, our teams continue to make significant progress improving the execution in our restaurants, innovating our back of house, and building Chipotle into a global iconic brand.
I am confident that we have a strong plan to return to positive transaction comps by the second half of the year, and during these uncertain times, we will continue to invest in the things that make Chipotle a special brand ā our people, culinary, value proposition, innovation and growth."
My Takeaway
Management has chartered a path to positive low-single digit growth during the back-half of 2025 as comparisons begin to ease and marketing, product, and operational drivers are deployed. This requires a strong acceleration as Q1 same store sales growth was -0.4% during Q1 and April is already down high single digits. Wall Street is expecting flat sales for the entire year of 2025 given this lumpy growth.
Management plans to elevate marketing spend throughout 2025 to 2-3% of sales (compared to just 2% in 2024) as they see an opportunity to capture incremental revenue, particularly during historically slow periods (summer). New menu innovation will soon debut and management believes this will serve as a test-case for potentially increasing to three limited time offers starting in 2026.
Chipotleās stock price is down -19% YTD compared to the S&P 500ās -9%, which Wall Street attributes to sluggish same store sales growth and margins resetting lower following portion size investments + tariffs. However, the bar is now set pretty low for Chipotle to bounce back during the remainder of the year. Wall Street is betting on that bounce back, whereas Iām not.
No shares.
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
The trade war is increasingly confusing, more drama surrounding Nvidia has begun, Instagram launched its āEditsā app, and Tempus AI scored a major cancer research deal.
Trade War Confusion Continues
President Trump indicated that another pause in his planned tariff increases is unlikely, putting pressure on nations to finalize trade deals with the U.S. He emphasized that tariffs on China would stay unless Beijing offers "something substantialā ā though he expressed skepticism that China would open its economy. Trump claimed financial markets were adjusting to his tariff policies despite recent volatility, and downplayed concerns about market turmoil.
He suggested trade deals with various U.S. partners could be wrapped up within the next three to four weeks, mentioning Japan as being especially close to an agreement. Although Trump gave mixed signals about talks with China, he maintained that communication with President Xi Jinping had occurred without offering details. He also rejected reports that his advisers influenced the timing of tariff decisions, asserting that he acted independently. At this point ā the market is simply confused by whatās going on.
"Well, I'm not going to drop 'em unless they give us something that's, you know, substantial. Otherwise, I'm not going to drop 'em. It'll all work out. Those things always work.ā
Chinaās Huawei Develops New AI Chip, Seeking to Match Nvidia
Source: Andy Wong / AP
Huawei is preparing to test its new Ascend 910D AI chip, aiming to rival Nvidiaās top products despite ongoing U.S. sanctions. The company's efforts highlight the resilience of Chinaās semiconductor industry, even as Washington tightens restrictions on chip technology exports. Huawei has already shipped hundreds of thousands of its earlier 910B and 910C chips and is negotiating for more orders after new limits were placed on Nvidiaās H20 chip sales to China.
While previous Huawei chips fell short of Nvidiaās performance, the company is shifting focus toward building more efficient computing systems rather than just more powerful individual chips. Huawei recently introduced the CloudMatrix 384, a system linking 384 of its chips, which under some conditions outperforms Nvidiaās latest rack system, though it consumes more power. Despite challenges such as limited access to advanced chip-making equipment, Huawei continues to push forward with innovations to close the technological gap with the U.S. The entire stock market is taking notice and eagerly awaits more info, with scar tissue from the DeepSeek mess months ago sticking around.
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
āHaving five times as many Ascends more than offsets each GPU being only one-third the performance of an Nvidia Blackwellā¦ "The deficiencies in power are relevant but not a limiting factor in China.ā
Instagram Launches āEditsā App for Video, Rivaling TikTok
Source: Dhizign
Instagram launched a new standalone app called Edits, designed to rival TikTokās video creation tools. The app offers features like background replacement, automatic captioning, and AI tools that can turn images into video. Edits allows creators to organize projects, shoot and edit videos, and track content insights, similar to TikTokās sister app CapCut.
With TikTokās future in the U.S. uncertain due to regulatory pressure, Instagramās Edits could help Meta gain an advantage in the evolving short video market. Adam Mosseri, Head of Instagram, emphasized the company's commitment to building creative tools for video makers across all platforms ā not just Instagram.
Meta Platforms (META) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
āToday, weāre launching Edits, a new video creation app that helps you make great videos directly on your phone. If youāre passionate about making videos, Edits has the tools you need to support your creation process, all in one place. This is just the first step in making an app that helps you create your best videos, and we plan to keep evolving and improving Edits based on your feedback.ā
AstraZeneca Enters $200m AI Cancer Pact with Tempus and Pathos
Source: Voice of Healthcare
AstraZeneca, Tempus, and Pathos AI have signed a multi-year, $200 million agreement to develop a large-scale multimodal deep learning model aimed at accelerating cancer drug discovery. Tempus will contribute its vast library of de-identified oncology data and receive licensing and model development fees, while all three companies will share access to the resulting model. This partnership builds on AstraZeneca and Tempus' earlier collaborations, including an AI-driven R&D alliance and clinical support for lung cancer decision-making.
AstraZeneca is also expanding its AI initiatives across drug development, such as its partnership with Turbine to use AI simulations for studying drug resistance in blood cancers. Leaders from AstraZeneca emphasize that AI must be implemented thoughtfully to serve as a true partner in drug discovery. Across the pharmaceutical industry, the use of AI is rapidly growing ā with companies like Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie also investing heavily in AI-driven drug development platforms.
Tempus AI (TEM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
āGenerative artificial intelligence (AI) and the emergence of large multimodal models is the final catalyst needed to usher in precision medicine in oncology at scaleā¦ Tempus has spent the last decade investing billions of dollars into collecting the necessary data needed for a foundation model of this kind to take shape.ā
Major Economic Events:
Existing Home Sales sank and the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) points to a slow economy ahead.
Existing Home Sales
Sales of previously owned homes in March 2025 dropped -5.9% from February, marking the slowest March sales pace since 2009. Despite a +20% increase in inventory compared to a year ago, high mortgage rates over 7% earlier in the year kept buyers cautious. Prices are cooling slightly, with the median home price up just +2.7% from last March, the smallest annual gain since August.
Sales fell across all regions, with the steepest drop in the West, although the Rocky Mountain states saw year-over-year growth due to strong job markets. First-time buyers made up 32% of the market, and all-cash sales dipped to 26% from 28% last year. Investors stayed steady at 15% of purchases, but rising contract cancellations and recent stock market volatility could signal more weakness ahead.
āMarch numbers are bad, but theyāre likely to get worseā¦ In addition to the existing pressures of high prices and high mortgage rates, prices for home furnishing will likely rise soon due to tariffs, and rising anxiety among consumers over inflation and jobs may magnify the instinct to hunker down already being felt by many families.ā
U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI)
The Conference Board Leading Economic IndexĀ® (LEI) for the U.S. fell -0.7% in March 2025, signaling slower economic activity ahead, largely due to weaker consumer expectations, falling stock prices, and softening manufacturing orders. Despite the decline, the data does not suggest a recession has started, though the GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded to +1.6% amid rising trade tensions.
The Coincident Economic IndexĀ® (CEI), which measures current conditions, rose +0.1% in March, although industrial production slipped for the first time since November 2024. Meanwhile, the Lagging Economic IndexĀ® (LAG) edged down -0.1% but maintained positive growth over the past six months. Overall, while warning signs are emerging, the economy remains resilient for now.
āThe US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity aheadā¦ Marchās decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start.ā
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