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Welcome to your new week.
Earnings reports have slowed down — but major economic data is coming in and Q4 is about to begin. There’s a LOT to discuss!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
Carnival Corporation, Conagra Brands, and Nike headline a slow week of earnings.
Monday (9/29): Carnival Corporation, Jefferies, Vail Resorts
Tuesday (9/30): Nike, Paychex
Wednesday (10/1): Conagra Brands
Thursday (10/2): N/A
Friday (10/3): N/A
What We’re Watching:
Nike (NKE)
Source: Nike Newsroom
Nike, Inc. (NKE) is set to release its Q1 FY2026 earnings on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, after market close. Analysts anticipate a challenging quarter, with revenue expected to decline approximately -5% year-over-year to around $10.98 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) projected at $0.27, marking a -61% drop from the previous year.
This downturn is attributed to several factors, including increased U.S. tariffs on imports from China, which are anticipated to add up to $1 billion in costs, and a 350–425 basis point contraction in gross margins. Additionally, Nike is facing stiff competition from brands like Hoka and On Holding, and is working to address declining demand in key markets such as China.
Source: Seeking Alpha
In response, CEO Elliott Hill has launched the "Win Now" strategy, focusing on reinvigorating Nike's core sports performance lines, enhancing wholesale partnerships, and reducing promotional activities. The recent collaboration with Kim Kardashian's Skims brand aims to strengthen Nike's position in the women's athleisure market.
The upcoming earnings report will be a key indicator of whether Nike’s strategic moves are translating into improved performance and renewed growth momentum.
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Google and Amazon debut AI products for your smart home, a government shut down is looming, and Electronic Arts officially agrees to the largest leveraged buyout in American history.
Google Gemini & Amazon Hardware Events
Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG) Stock Performance, YTD Chart, Seeking Alpha
Google is hosting a Gemini event this week, expected to unveil a major upgrade to Google Assistant – bringing Gemini AI to smart home devices like Nest Cams, speakers, and doorbells. This marks a leap toward more conversational, contextual AI throughout the home.
Amazon, Inc. (AMZN) Stock Performance, YTD Chart, Seeking Alpha
The battle for AI powered homes is heating up. Amazon is staging a full-scale hardware event on Tuesday, September 30, and all signs point to a major push into AI and devices.
What's expected:
New Echo devices powered by Alexa+ (its upgraded generative AI)
A potential color Kindle for richer e-reading
Updates to Fire TV and possibly the debut of Vega OS, Amazon’s new smart TV platform
Amazon has lagged behind its fellow Magnificent Seven peers in 2025 — nailing this event could be the catalyst it needs. Shifting Alexa from “smart assistant” to central intelligence across home devices is the goal.
Potential Government Shutdown Looming
President Donald Trump and congressional leaders are meeting as the U.S. approaches its first government shutdown in nearly seven years. Democrats are seeking $350 billion to extend Obamacare tax credits and reverse certain Medicaid changes, while framing the debate around health care costs. Trump has linked their proposals to immigration funding, asserting that Democrats’ plan could result in significant spending for undocumented immigrants.
Republicans are calling for a short-term funding bill to keep the government open until Nov. 21 before broader negotiations continue, while Democrats want assurances that any agreements will be honored. The White House has warned of potential layoffs of federal workers if a shutdown occurs, which could affect agencies including environment, agriculture, and labor. With both sides holding firm on key issues, Monday’s meeting is expected to be challenging, and the possibility of a shutdown remains.
“Our position has been very clear: cancel the cuts, lower the cost, save health care so we can address the issues that really matter to the American people in an environment where the cost of living is too high.”
"We'll have to see, but I can tell you where his head and his heart are. He wants to do right by the people. He does not want the Democrats to hold up troops' pay. You know, the people who serve in the military, they don't get paid during the shutdown. That's what Chuck Schumer is holding hostage. Why? So that he can add $1.5 trillion in new spending at a time when we're simply just trying to keep the government going for seven weeks so we can have those debates. It's wrong."
Electronic Arts Officially Agrees to Largest Leveraged Buyout in History
Sources: Patrick T. Fallon / Bloomberg
Electronic Arts agreed to be acquired by a private investor consortium in a $55 billion leveraged buyout, the largest on record. The group, which includes Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, will pay $210 per share in cash, a 25% premium over EA’s pre-deal stock price. The deal will be financed with about $36 billion in equity — including PIF rolling over its 9.9% stake — and $20 billion in debt arranged by JPMorgan, with a $1 billion breakup fee attached.
EA is selling amid slowing growth in the $178 billion video game industry, where players have shifted toward free-to-play, continuously updated titles over $80 premium releases. Going private is expected to free the company from Wall Street’s quarterly pressure, while its sports franchises such as Madden NFL provide steady revenue. The transaction surpasses the $45 billion TXU buyout in 2007, making it not only the largest LBO ever but also one of 2025’s biggest M&A deals.
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Our creative and passionate teams at EA have delivered extraordinary experiences for hundreds of millions of fans, built some of the world’s most iconic IP, and created significant value for our business… This moment is a powerful recognition of their remarkable work.”
Major Economic Events:
A massive week of economic data has arrived — Jobs Report, Home Price Index, Factory Orders, Manufacturing Data, and more.
Monday (9/29): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speech, Fed Reserve Gov Christopher Waller speaks, Pending home sales
Tuesday (9/30): Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), Consumer confidence, Fed Reserve Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speech, Job openings, S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)
Wednesday (10/1): ADP employment, Auto sales, Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI
Thursday (10/2): Initial jobless claims, Factory orders
Friday (10/3): ISM services, Fed Reserve Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speech, U.S. employment report, U.S. hourly wages, U.S. unemployment rate, S&P final U.S. services PMI
What We’re Watching:
Jobs Report
The U.S. economy added -911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2025 than originally reported, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision — marking the largest downward revision since at least 2000.
This revision reflects a -0.6% adjustment to total nonfarm employment, compared with a 10-year average absolute change of just ±0.2%. Nearly all sectors were impacted:
Leisure & hospitality: -176K
Professional & business services: -158K
Retail trade: -126.2K
Wholesale trade: -110.3K
The benchmark revision highlights discrepancies between two independently compiled employment measures. A similar downward revision of -818K jobs occurred the previous year. The new figures suggest the labor market has weakened more than previously believed, possibly reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent case for rate cuts later this year.
On average, economists expect the following this week:
Nonfarm Payrolls: +51K vs. +22K the month prior
“Bloomberg Economics expects nonfarm payrolls for September to add a net +54k jobs. The improvement in net hiring likely came from leisure and hospitality, as temperate weather and a positive wealth effect from the summer stock-market rally drove spending on discretionary services.”
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Source: S&P Global
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose +2.1% YoY in June 2025, easing from a +2.8% increase the month prior and marking the softest annual gain since July 2023. The slowdown reflects elevated mortgage rates and higher housing inventory, both of which have cooled buyer competition.
Top annual price gains:
New York City: +7.0%
Chicago: +6.1%
Cleveland: +4.5%
Detroit: +4.3%
Largest declines:
Tampa: -2.4%
San Francisco: -2.0%
Month-over-month, prices were largely flat, reinforcing signs of a cooling — but not collapsing — housing market. This week’s reading (July) serves as a key data point on the state of the housing market from the summer months.
“Housing will find its footing and begin to improve more noticeably as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate closes in on 6%.”
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