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Welcome to your new week.
Despite relatively strong earnings reports, the S&P 500 dropped -2.5% last week. Now we’re gearing up for ANOTHER major series of earnings reports and economic updates.
Let’s dive right in, but first — make sure you check out Zena below. We’re thrilled to have them as a trusted partner for the Rate of Return Newsletter and Grit Capital overall!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
It’s a monster week of earnings with AMD, Disney, Hims & Hers, Oscar Health, Palantir, Uber, and more.
Monday (8/4): Axsome, Berkshire Hathaway, BioNTech, BioCryst, Belling, BWXT, Cal-Maine Foods, Freshpet, Hims & Hers, Lattice, Mercado Libre, Navitas, NVT5, Onsemi, Palantir, TG Therapeutics, ThredUp, Tyson, Vertex
Tuesday (8/5): AMD, ANET, Arista, Astera Labs, BP, Caterpillar, Clover, Duke Energy, DuPont, Eaton, Esperion, Lemonade, Lucid, Marriott International, Opendoor, Pfizer, Rivian, Snap Inc., Supermicro, ThredUp, Upstart
Wednesday (8/6): AppLovin, Dave, Disney, Duolingo, DraftKings, E.L.F., Energy Transfer, Fortinet, GEO Group, Geron, IonQ, Jack in the Box, Joby Aviation, McDonald’s, Novo Nordisk, Oscar, Shopify, Six Flags, Symbotic, Uber
Thursday (8/7): Atlassian, Block, Celsius, ConocoPhillips, D-Wave, Energy Fuels, Establishment Labs, Krotos, Lilly, Nuscale, Pinterest, Sony, SoundHound, T2 Biosystems, Targa, Team, The Trade Desk, Twilio, Vistra
Friday (8/8): Canopy Growth, CPI Card Group, FET, FuboTV, PAR, Plains All American, Sylvamo, Tempus, Terawulf, Wendy’s
What We’re Watching:
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Source: AMD Earnings Deck
AMD reports Q2 earnings Tuesday after the bell, with shares up +42% YTD as investors bet on long-term upside from the MI300X AI accelerator ramp and enterprise cloud demand.
This cycle, focus will be on how fast MI300X — AMD’s flagship AI GPU — is scaling against NVIDIA’s dominance. Last quarter, Data Center revenue jumped +80% QoQ, as MI300X deployments at Microsoft, Meta, and others began contributing. I’ll also be watching for updates on AI PC momentum via Ryzen AI, embedded and gaming recovery trends, and signs of margin expansion as high-performance product mix improves.
We’re excited to hear from Lisa Su on AMD’s $4B+ AI revenue outlook for 2025, and whether enterprise adoption is accelerating fast enough to justify lofty AI expectations. With custom silicon, new cloud wins, and XDNA 2 on the roadmap — this earnings print is meaningful.
“We see strong multi-year demand for our AI platforms and expect to gain share as the market expands.”
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Palantir (PLTR)
Source: Palantir Earnings Deck
Palantir reports Q2 earnings Monday after the bell, with shares having surged over 103% YTD, making it a top performer on the S&P 500 as investor enthusiasm grows around its AI-driven software platform.
This earnings cycle, all eyes will be on whether Palantir can deliver strong growth in both government and commercial AI demand, with analysts expecting ~$939 million in revenue (+39% YoY). Key highlights include a revised $10 billion U.S. Army IT and software contract, which could see annual revenue rise from $400 million to $600 million over the next two years.
I’ll also be listening for updates on the pace of enterprise AI adoption, pricing transparency, and the commercial pipeline — especially because Palantir trades at a lofty multiple (~250 x forward earnings) and investor expectations are sky-high.
“Palantir is on fire... This is an unvarnished cacophony of twenty years of investment and a massive cultural shift in the U.S.”
Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
More earnings volatility, Boeing defense union strike to start today, and Switzerland got caught in the middle of a trade war.
Earnings Volatility
Roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500 have now reported – and blended earnings growth has surged to +10.3%, more than double the +5% pace expected just a month ago, per FactSet. But under the surface, stock-level volatility is spiking.
Despite headline strength, even minor earnings disappointments are being punished more harshly than usual. According to Evercore ISI, stocks missing both revenue and EPS estimates are falling an average of 4.9% the next day, well above the 5-year average decline of 3.2%. And even beats aren’t always safe from pullbacks.
Even modest guidance cuts are triggering sharp moves — Novo Nordisk dropped -20% after trimming its full-year outlook, while Meta jumped +12% on strong AI and ad performance. With the S&P 500 hovering near record highs, the market is showing zero tolerance for anything short of perfect.
“Use cases for AI are emerging and some companies are already seeing a payoff, meaning this isn’t speculative anymore. That doesn’t mean big tech can’t get ahead of themselves and pull back, but tech is on an inexorable march to be a larger and larger part of the market. That’s been the trend my whole career, and I don’t know why it would stop now.”
Boeing (BA) Defense Union Strike
Source: Barrons
Over 3,200 Boeing defense machinists in St. Louis and Illinois rejected the company’s latest four-year contract offer — despite a proposed 20% base wage increase and improved benefits — and will walk off the job starting at midnight on Monday, marking the first strike at Boeing’s defense operations since 1996.
This strike jeopardizes production of fighter jets and MQ-25 refueling drones, which form a core part of Boeing’s defense and space business — roughly 29% of the company's $22.75B Q2 revenue. While Boeing insists it has contingency plans to maintain operations, the move follows last year’s 33,000-worker commercial strike that cost the company billions. With Boeing under pressure to execute on large Pentagon contracts and stabilize its turnaround, the strike adds another layer of operational disruption.
“IAM District 837 members have spoken loud and clear, they deserve a contract that reflects their skill, dedication, and the critical role they play in our nation’s defense.”
Switzerland Trade Levy
President Trump imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss exports – one of the highest levies issued under the new executive order. The decision shocked Swiss officials and business leaders, many of whom believed a deal was imminent after months of negotiations.
Switzerland, which sends ~19% of its exports to the U.S., now faces a severe disadvantage compared to EU neighbors who secured a more favorable 15% rate. Key exports like precision tools, watches, chocolate, and pharmaceuticals (currently exempt) are in limbo as companies brace for disruption. The Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce had proposed a $150B investment into the U.S. in hopes of averting the tariffs, to no avail.
The economic hit could trim -0.6% off Swiss GDP, with the damage escalating if pharmaceutical exemptions are revoked. The final rate may still be negotiated before the August 7 deadline. Until then, expect heightened uncertainty across global trade.
“The U.S. leads a zigzagging unilateral war on tariffs and this unpredictability imposes a rising risk premium on financial assets. This will lead to a weakening of the Swiss economy, the Swiss Franc and the Swiss equity market, particularly the all-important export sector.”
Major Economic Events:
ISM services PMI and U.S. trade deficit are in the spotlight this week.
Monday (8/4): Factory orders
Tuesday (8/5): ISM services, S&P final U.S. services PMI, U.S. trade deficit
Wednesday (8/6): Fed Gov. Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins on panel
Thursday (8/7): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech, Consumer credit, Initial jobless claims, U.S. productivity, U.S. unit-labor costs, Wholesale inventories
Friday (8/8): None scheduled
What We’re Watching:
ISM Services PMI
ISM Services PMI ticked up to 50.8 in June, rebounding from May’s contractionary 49.9 reading and topping expectations of 50.5. The gain was driven by a broad-based uptick in business activity (54.2 vs 50), new orders (51.3 vs 46.4), and export orders (51.1 vs 48.5) — signaling a modest recovery in service-sector demand.
Inventory levels also firmed (52.7 vs 49.7), though supplier delivery performance continued to slow (50.3 vs 52.5) and backlog of orders fell again to 42.4. Price pressures eased slightly (67.5 vs 68.7), but tariffs and operating cost inflation remained top concerns among firms.
Economists expect the following this week:
ISM Services PMI (July): 51.0 est.
Business Activity Index: 54.0 est.
Prices Paid Index: 67.0 est.
“The past relationship between the Services PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI® for June (50.8 percent) corresponds to a 0.7-percentage point increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
U.S. Trade Deficit
The U.S. trade deficit ballooned to $71.5B in May, up from a revised $60.3B in April — marking one of the largest monthly increases since 2022. The widening gap was driven by a 4% drop in exports to $279B, following a record high in April, with sharp declines in non-monetary gold, natural gas, and finished metal shapes.
Imports dipped slightly by 0.1% to $350.5B, a 7-month low, as reduced purchases of computer accessories and metals offset gains in computers, autos, and pharmaceuticals. The largest deficit was with the EU (-$22.5B) — while gaps with Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam also widened. Notably, the deficit with China narrowed to $14B, the lowest in months.
Economists expect the following this week:
U.S. Balance of Trade (June): $68.5B expected deficit
Exports (June): +0.5% MoM
Imports (June): +1.2% MoM
“President Trump is using tariffs as a powerful tool to reduce our trade deficit and put America First after decades of unsustainable trade deficits that threaten our economic sovereignty and national security. The Trump administration continues to engage with our trading partners to achieve fair, balanced, and reciprocal trade.”
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Cover image source: Fabrice Caffini / AFP / Business Insider
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