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- 👉 Iran War Ending (?) & Fed Chair's First Week
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Welcome to your new week.
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Let’s dive right in.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Dell, Marvell, MongoDB, Salesforce, Snowflake and Zscaler highlight the week.
Monday (5/25): Memorial Day
Tuesday (5/26): AutoZone, BBVA, Box, Champion Homes, Ooma, Pony AI, Zscaler
Wednesday (5/27): Abercrombie & Fitch, Bath & Body Works, Capri Holdings, Dick’s Sporting Goods, HP, Marvell, Salesforce, Snowflake, Synopsys
Thursday (5/28): Autodesk, Best Buy, Costco, Dell, Elastic, MongoDB, Okta, SentinelOne, UiPath
Friday (5/29): BitFuFu, Elmet Technologies, Knot Offshore Partners
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What We’re Watching:
Dell (DELL)
Source: Dell Earnings Deck
Dell Technologies (+134% YTD) reports earnings Thursday after the close, with investors focused on whether the company can keep converting AI infrastructure demand into revenue growth, margin leverage, and backlog expansion. Dell has become one of the clearest hardware beneficiaries of the AI data-center buildout, but expectations have risen quickly as the stock has surged on accelerating demand for AI servers.
Last quarter, Dell delivered record revenue of $33.4 billion (+39% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.89 (+45% YoY), beating expectations on both the top and bottom line. Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue reached a record $19.6 billion, while AI-optimized server revenue hit roughly $9.0 billion. The company also reported $34.1 billion in AI-optimized server orders and ended the year with a $43 billion AI backlog, underscoring the scale of demand tied to next-generation data centers.
Heading into the release, I’ll be watching AI server orders, backlog conversion, and margin performance in Infrastructure Solutions, along with whether PC demand continues to stabilize. Commentary on supply constraints, enterprise AI deployments, and forward guidance will be critical as investors assess whether Dell’s AI server momentum can continue into the second half of the year.
“The AI opportunity is transforming our company. We closed more than $64 billion in AI-optimized server orders, shipped more than $25 billion throughout the year, and are entering FY27 with record backlog of $43 billion.”
Dell Technologies (DELL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Salesforce (CRM)
Source: Salesforce Earnings Deck
Salesforce (-32% YTD) reports Q1 FY2027 earnings Wednesday after the close, with investors focused on whether the company can prove its AI strategy is creating durable growth after a major software selloff. The stock has been under pressure as investors debate whether agentic AI strengthens Salesforce’s platform or disrupts the traditional SaaS model altogether.
Last quarter, Salesforce delivered $11.2 billion in revenue (+12% YoY), with subscription and support revenue up 13% and total RPO rising 14% to $72.4 billion. Management also highlighted growing AI traction, with Data 360 and AI ARR reaching $2.9B+ and Agentforce ARR around $800M, while the company guided FY2027 revenue to roughly $46.2B.
Heading into this release, I’ll be watching whether Agentforce and Data 360 adoption can translate into stronger cRPO, whether enterprise customers are expanding AI budgets, and how management frames the broader “SaaS disruption” narrative. Commentary on margins, Informatica integration, Slack monetization, and full-year guidance will be key as investors look for signs that Salesforce can defend its platform in the AI era.
“Every AI agent needs somewhere to land. The data, the business rules, the conversational layer for humans and agents. That’s Salesforce.”
Salesforce Inc. (CRM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Investors and the world have high hopes for a definitive deal with Iran to be announced this week.
Iran Deal on Watch
Markets will be watching U.S.–Iran talks closely this week after reports of progress toward a potential agreement sent Brent crude down roughly 7% and lifted U.S. equity futures. The move reflects hope that a deal could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease supply disruptions, and reduce the energy-driven inflation pressure that has weighed on risk assets.
Still, investors remain cautious. President Trump said negotiations are moving forward but stressed he “won’t do a bad deal,” while key sticking points remain around Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and shipping access. Both sides have incentives to reach an agreement – the U.S. wants lower oil prices and reduced inflation pressure, while Iran needs relief from economic isolation – but the gap between the two sides remains meaningful.
The U.S. also needed to conduct “self-defense strikes” in Southern Iran early on Tuesday…
“This is not the first instance of military action since a ceasefire was reached between Washington and Tehran on April 8. Later that month, U.S. marines seized the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, and in May, both sides traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side claiming the other initiated the attack.”
The key watch this week is whether diplomacy turns into a concrete framework or fades into another false start. A credible deal could extend the relief rally in equities and energy-sensitive sectors, while a breakdown would likely put the geopolitical risk premium back into oil quickly.
“The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
New Fed Chair Warsh Is Getting Thrown Into the Fire in His First Full Week
Sources: Reuters | Jonathan Ernst | File Photo
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is stepping into one of the toughest macroeconomic environments in years. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, oil prices continue rising due to Middle East tensions, and bond markets are increasingly signaling concern that interest rates may need to stay elevated — or even move higher.
That creates a difficult challenge for Warsh, who previously suggested the possibility of lower interest rates while also arguing the Fed should provide less forward guidance and become more flexible in its communication strategy. But with Treasury yields rising, mortgage rates climbing, and markets pricing in a more hawkish outlook, those goals are becoming harder to maintain simultaneously.
The situation is further complicated by a surprisingly resilient economy driven in part by massive AI-related investment spending and strong equity markets, even as consumer sentiment weakens and inflation pressures remain persistent. Investors are now trying to determine whether the economy is slowing enough to justify lower rates — or whether inflation risks are still too elevated for the Fed to ease policy.
As a result, Warsh may soon face difficult tradeoffs between supporting economic growth, maintaining inflation credibility, managing bond market expectations, and preserving the Fed’s independence amid increasing political pressure.
"I think he's got abilities that very few people have… I really mean this. This is not said in any other way. I want Kevin to be totally independent. I want him to be independent and just do a great job."
"Our mandate at the Fed is to promote price stability and maximum employment. When we pursue those aims with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve — inflation can be lower; growth, stronger; real take-home pay, higher.”
Major Economic Events:
Core PCE, durable goods orders and fedspeak highlight this week.
Monday (5/25): Memorial Day
Tuesday (5/26): Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer confidence
Wednesday (5/27): N/A
Thursday (5/28): Durable goods orders, GDP (second estimate), Initial jobless claims, Personal income, Consumer spending, PCE index (MoM & YoY), Core PCE index (MoM & YoY), New home sales
Friday (5/29): Advance economic indicators, Wholesale inventories, Retail inventories, Chicago PMI
What We’re Watching:
Core PCE
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, rose 0.3% MoM in March, easing from February’s 0.4% increase and matching market expectations. While the monthly pace cooled slightly, inflation remains firm beneath the surface.
On a year-over-year basis, core PCE accelerated to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in February and still well above the Fed’s 2% target. For the Fed, the report complicates the policy outlook. A softer monthly print gives officials some breathing room, but the higher annual rate makes it harder to justify near-term rate cuts, especially with energy-related risks and geopolitical uncertainty still elevated.
Economists expect the following this week:
Core PCE (MoM): +0.3% vs. +0.4% prior
Core PCE (YoY): +3.2% vs. +3.0% prior
“The Fed needs to see inflation falling on a sustained basis before it can become comfortable cutting rates again.”
Durable Goods Orders
New orders for U.S.-manufactured durable goods rose 0.8% MoM in March to $318.9 billion, rebounding from February’s revised 1.2% decline and topping expectations for a 0.5% increase. The gain suggests business demand remained intact despite renewed uncertainty from the Iran conflict, higher energy prices, and global shipping disruptions.
The strength was led by computers and electronic products (+3.7%), reflecting continued momentum tied to AI-related demand. Orders also increased across machinery, primary metals, electrical equipment, and transportation equipment, pointing to a broader stabilization in industrial activity.
The report reinforces the idea that capital spending has not stalled, even as businesses navigate higher input costs and geopolitical risk.
Economists expect the following this week:
Durable Goods Orders (MoM): +0.8% vs. -1.2% prior
Computers & Electronics Orders: +3.7% vs. prior decline
Transportation Equipment Orders: +0.8% vs. prior weakness
“Business investment is holding up better than expected, helped by continued demand for technology and AI-related equipment.”
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Cover Image Source: Reuters | Jonathan Ernst | File Photo
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