👉 Is Nike Ready to Run?

Welcome to your new week.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Carnival Corporation and Nike headline another slow week of earnings.

Monday (9/30): Carnival Corporation

Tuesday (10/1): McCormick, Nike, Paychex

Wednesday (10/2): Conagra, Levi’s, RPM

Thursday (10/3): Constellation Brands 

Friday (10/4): Apogee

What We’re Watching:

1. Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Carnival Corporation is set to report its Q3 earnings on Monday. Wall Street is expecting EPS of $1.15 (+30% YoY) and revenue growth to $7.81 billion (+14% YoY). Strong demand for cruises has driven the company’s recovery, with consumers eager for vacations and higher ticket prices supporting revenue. Despite softer growth compared to Q2, analysts anticipate earnings upside and margin expansion — Carnival has a strong track record of outperforming expectations.

Looking ahead, while 2024 is shaping up as a record year for cruises, there are few concerns that post-COVID travel demand could slow in 2025. However, bullish analyst ratings and numerous upward revisions to EPS and revenue estimates reflect confidence in Carnival’s near-term outlook. 

• Analysts expect $1.15 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $7.82 billion.

• You can explore the most recent CCL investor release here and here.

2. Nike (NKE)

Nike (-17.6% YTD) will release its FQ4 earnings on October 1. Projections are indicating a -8.5% YoY revenue drop to $11.65 billion. This decline is largely attributed to weaker performance in North America — with footwear revenue expected to dip -9.4% and apparel revenue down -7.9%. Analysts are also eyeing Nike's gross margin rate (forecasted at 44.4%) and operating income (forecasted at $882.1 million).

Nike shares have surged recently — largely due to Elliott Hill coming on as CEO effective October 14. While Hill’s leadership has investors optimistic, some analysts caution that Nike could issue conservative FQ1 and full-year guidance during the earnings call.

Nike’s regional and product-specific outlook — especially regarding trends in China — could signal broader consumer trends for other global brands like Starbucks (SBUX), Estée Lauder (EL), & Skechers (SKX).

• Analysts expect $0.52 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $11.65 billion.

• You can explore the most recent NKE investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs

The merger of DirecTV & Dish, the stock split of SMCI, and Tesla + other EV companies report deliveries.

• DirecTV to Acquire Dish Network for $1

DirecTV announced its acquisition of Dish Network for $1 — assuming billions of dollars of Dish's debt as both companies face challenges retaining subscribers in the streaming-dominated era.

The merger aims to create a more competitive force against streaming services, providing more scale and investment opportunities for the combined entity. DirecTV will receive a $10 billion loan from TPG to help Dish manage upcoming debt maturities, while continuing to operate Dish and Sling TV under their current brands. The deal still requires approval from Dish bondholders.

• SMCI 10-1 Stock Split #1

Super Micro Computer will implement a 10-1 stock split on Monday, aimed at increasing liquidity and accessibility for investors. Despite the recent -70% plunge from its March 2024 highs — SMCI still boasts a 1-year total return of over +60%, driven by its leadership in AI servers.

• Tesla Deliveries

Tesla delivery numbers come in this week alongside major EV competitors like Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), Rivian (RIVN), Li Auto (LI), and Lucid (LCID). The broader U.S. auto market is expected to see a slight decline in September sales — down -1.8% YoY — with total Q3 new-vehicle sales projected to increase +0.2%.

Despite modest growth — rising inventory and high interest rates are squeezing consumer demand that has led to a drop in retailer profit per unit by -29% compared to last year.

Major Economic Events:

September’s jobs report will have the eyes of every investor.

Monday (9/30): Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks, Fed Reserve Governor Bowman Speaks

Tuesday (10/1): Auto Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, Job Openings, Fed Reserve Governor Cook Speaks, Fed Speakers Join Panel about Technology-Enabled Disruption 

Wednesday (10/2): ADP Employment, Cleveland Fed President Hammack Speaks, Fed Reserve Governor Bowman Speaks, Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks, St. Louis Fed President Musalem Speaks

Thursday (10/3): Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Services, Factory Orders, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari & Atlanta Fed President Bostic Speak

Friday (10/4): U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Nonfarm Payroll, U.S. Unemployment Rate, New York Fed President Williams Speaks

What We’re Watching:

1. Nonfarm Payrolls

The US economy added +142K jobs in August 2024, more than a downwardly revised +89K in July — but below forecasts of +160K.

2. Unemployment Rate

The U.S. unemployment rate eased to 4.2% in August 2024, down slightly from 4.3% in July — with 7.1 million unemployed. Permanent job losses remained steady at 1.7 million, while temporary layoffs fell by -190,000 to 872,000.

Bank of America US economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients "Layoffs are the key indicator to watch: as long as they stay low, the base case will likely remain a soft landing."

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Cover Image Credit: Nike Investor Relations

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