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Welcome to your new week.
Let’s be honest — this has been an exhausting start to the year in the markets. Just a few things that will be in focus this week…
Major earnings reports
The largest cryptos like BTC and ETH risking substantial drops to the downside
Fed meeting
Greenland
Iran
Japan
Government shutdown lingering
And so much more…
It’s as important as ever to be an informed investor. Read on for everything you should keep you eyes on!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
103 S&P 500 companies report this week — including an important commercial / defense manufacturer + big tech giants.
Monday (1/26): AGNC, Baker Hughes, Nucor, Ryanair, Steel Dynamics
Tuesday (1/27): Boeing, General Motors, Northrop Grumman, Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth Group, UPS
Wednesday (1/28): ASML, AT&T, IBM, Lam Research, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Starbucks, Tesla
Thursday (1/29): Apple, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Visa, Western Digital
Friday (1/30): American Express, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Verizon, Charter Communications, SoFi
What We’re Watching:
Boeing (BA)
Boeing (+16.1% YTD) reports Q4 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether operational stabilization and improving aircraft deliveries can begin to translate into better cash flow after another turbulent year.
Last quarter, Boeing posted $18.1 billion in revenue (+4% YoY) but continued to burn cash as production disruptions, regulatory scrutiny, and higher costs weighed on results. Commercial Airplanes deliveries improved modestly, while Defense & Space remained pressured by fixed-price contract charges. Management reiterated its goal of stabilizing 737 MAX production and improving execution across programs.
For this report, I’ll be watching delivery cadence for the 737 MAX, free cash flow trajectory, and any updates on regulatory oversight and quality controls. Commentary on supply-chain normalization, customer confidence, and the pace of balance-sheet repair will be critical for investor sentiment.
“We are making the changes needed to restore trust and stabilize our business for the long term.”
Boeing Company (BA). Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft (-3.7% YTD) reports Q2 FY2026 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether AI-driven growth across Azure, Microsoft 365, and enterprise software can continue to offset margin pressure from heavy infrastructure spending.
Last quarter, Microsoft delivered $64.7 billion in revenue (+15% YoY) and $2.95 in EPS (+19% YoY), driven by strong performance in Microsoft Cloud and sustained demand for Copilot products. Azure revenue grew in the low-30% range, though management flagged that AI capacity constraints and elevated capex would continue to weigh on near-term margins.
Heading into this release, I’ll be watching Azure growth trends, AI monetization across Office and Dynamics, and signals on capex intensity into 2026. Any update on Copilot adoption, pricing leverage, or AI workloads translating into higher ARPU will be key for the stock’s next move.
“Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth.”
Microsoft, Inc. (MSFT) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Canada–U.S. trade tensions stay in focus, U.S. takes $1.6B stake in USA Rare Earth (USAR), and Japan markets are on edge as bonds sell off.
Canada-U.S. Trade Tensions Stay in Focus
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated that Ottawa has no plans to pursue a full free-trade agreement with China, pushing back against Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if such a deal were pursued. Carney stressed that his recent engagement with China was limited to specific tariff adjustments, not a comprehensive trade pact, and that Canada is respecting its commitments under the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Under the agreement, Canada will permit up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the market each year at a reduced 6.1% tariff, following its October 2024 move — alongside the U.S. — to raise tariffs on those vehicles to 100%.
“What we have done with China is to rectify some issues that have developed in the last couple of years… entirely consistent with CUSMA.”
“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken.”
U.S. Takes $1.6B Stake in USA Rare Earth (USAR)
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Stock Performance, YTD Chart, Seeking Alpha
The USA Rare Earth Inc is back in focus after reports that the Donald Trump administration plans to invest $1.6 billion for a 10% stake in the company, underscoring a renewed push to secure domestic rare-earth supply chains critical to defense, EVs, and AI infrastructure.
Rare earths have long been a geopolitical flashpoint, with China historically dominating global production and processing. Washington’s new investment signals a more assertive industrial strategy to reduce dependence on foreign sources, bolster supply-chain resilience, and support U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. The move also dovetails with broader federal efforts under the CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and defense appropriations that prioritize strategic materials and dual-use technologies.
Markets have responded with enthusiasm: the stock climbed ~+9% Friday and ~+46% over the past five trading days as traders priced in the potential for accelerated production, new capital flows, and expanded government offtake agreements.
“This is the fourth equity investment into critical minerals companies announced by the administration following the acquisition of equity stakes in MP Materials (NYSE: MP), Lithium Americas (TSX: LAC) and Trilogy Metals (TSX: TMQ) last year.”
Japan Markets on Edge as Bonds Sell Off
Japan’s financial markets came under renewed strain after the Bank of Japan warned that government bond yields are rising too fast and signaled it is prepared to step in with bond-buying if conditions turn disorderly. The comment followed a sharp selloff in long-dated JGBs that pushed yields to record highs, even as the BoJ held its policy rate steady near 0.75% and reiterated that further hikes are likely in 2026.
The warning triggered violent currency moves, the yen briefly fell before snapping higher within minutes. Traders pointed to speculation around official “rate checks” and the growing risk of direct intervention. Despite the rebound, the currency remains near multi-decade lows against major peers.
Political uncertainty is adding fuel to the fire. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved parliament and called a snap election, while floating fiscal proposals that could materially widen deficits, intensifying pressure on long-term bonds. At the same time, the BoJ raised its underlying inflation outlook, reinforcing expectations that policy normalization is coming.
“If the yen slides hard, Japan has to defend it, and the fastest lever is selling reserves, including Treasuries… That’s how a Japan problem turns into higher US yields at exactly the wrong moment.”
Major Economic Events:
Consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and the Fed’s interest rate decision are in focus.
Monday (1/26): Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Transportation)
Tuesday (1/27): Consumer Confidence
Wednesday (1/28): FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Thursday (1/29): Factory Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Productivity, U.S. Trade Deficit, Wholesale Inventories
Friday (1/30): Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), Core PPI, Core PPI (YoY), Producer Price Index (PPI), PPI (YoY)
What We’re Watching:
Durable Goods Orders
New orders for U.S.-manufactured durable goods fell 2.2% MoM in October, sharply reversing September’s upwardly revised +0.7% gain and missing expectations for a -1.5% decline. The pullback was driven primarily by a steep drop in transportation equipment (-6.5%), with both nondefense (-20.1%) and defense aircraft orders (-32.4%) plunging.
Outside of aircraft, the picture was more mixed. Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft –a key proxy for business investment – rose 0.5%, suggesting underlying corporate spending plans remain intact despite macro uncertainty. Machinery (+0.8%) and fabricated metals (+0.5%) also posted gains, partially offsetting weakness in capital goods and primary metals.
Economists expect the following this week:
Durable Goods Orders (MoM): -2.2% vs. +0.7% prior
Core Capex Orders (ex-aircraft): +0.5% vs. flat prior
“Durable goods remain noisy month to month, but core capital spending continues to show resilience — a sign businesses are cautious, not retreating.”
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Source: FedWatch CME Group
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed broad agreement that rate cuts are likely in 2026 if inflation continues to ease, though policymakers remain split on the balance of risks. Some officials warned that sticky inflation could still require restrictive policy, while others argued for deeper cuts to counter signs of labor-market softening.
The Fed cut rates by 25bps to a 3.5%–3.75% range, marking its third cut of the year and matching market expectations. The decision was not unanimous: two members dissented in favor of holding steady, while newly appointed Governor Miran pushed for a larger 50bps cut.
The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed greater optimism around 2026 growth, with policymakers citing a smaller-than-feared drag from tariffs and more confidence in a gradual inflation cooldown.
Economists expect the following this week:
Fed Funds Rate (Current): 3.5%–3.75%
2026 Rate Cuts Priced In: ~2–3 cuts
Inflation Risk vs. Labor Risk: Evenly balanced
“The Fed is no longer debating whether to cut – it’s debating how fast and how far. That tension will define policy in 2026.”
– Julia Coronado, President, MacroPolicy Perspectives
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