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- 👉 Largest Monthly Inflation Increase Since 2022?
👉 Largest Monthly Inflation Increase Since 2022?
Delta, Iran War, JPMorgan's $1T Economic Injection
Austin Hankwitz
06 Apr
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Welcome to your new week.
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Let’s dive right in.
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Key Earnings Announcements:
Constellations Brands and Delta highlight this slow week of earnings
Monday (4/6): N/A
Tuesday (4/7): Levi’s
Wednesday (4/8): Constellation Brands, Delta
Thursday (4/9): Blackberry, WD-40
Friday (4/10): N/A
What We’re Watching:
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Constellation Brands (+9.6% YTD) reports earnings this week, with investors focused on demand trends across its beer portfolio and the ongoing reset in its wine and spirits business. The company remains heavily tied to the performance of its Mexican beer brands – Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico – which have been key drivers of growth in recent years.
Recent results have highlighted continued strength in the beer segment, supported by pricing and resilient consumer demand, while the wine and spirits division has faced ongoing pressure from declining volumes and portfolio repositioning. Management has been actively streamlining that business, divesting lower-end brands and shifting focus toward higher-margin offerings.
Key areas of focus this quarter will include beer depletion trends, pricing vs. volume dynamics, and progress within the wine and spirits turnaround. Investors will also be looking for updates on margin trajectory and capital allocation priorities – particularly share buybacks and reinvestment into core brands – as the company works to return to more consistent, profitable growth.
“Our beer business continues to deliver strong, consistent growth, supported by the strength of our core brands and consumer demand.”
Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Delta Air Lines (+3.8% YTD) reports earnings this week, with investors focused on how rising fuel costs and geopolitical tensions are impacting margins heading into peak travel season. The print comes as oil prices have surged amid the Iran conflict, creating a more challenging cost backdrop for airlines that are highly sensitive to energy prices.
Last quarter, Delta delivered solid results supported by strong premium and international travel demand, with higher-margin segments helping offset cost pressures. The company has continued to emphasize its premium offerings and diversified revenue streams, which have allowed it to outperform many peers despite a more volatile macro environment.
I’ll be watching for commentary on fuel cost pressures, pricing power, and whether premium travel demand remains resilient. Updates to full-year guidance and any signals around capacity or demand trends into the summer travel season will be key as investors assess whether Delta can maintain margins in a higher-cost environment.
“We continue to see resilient demand for premium travel, even as we navigate a more volatile cost environment driven by fuel.”
Delta Air Lines (DAL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Geopolitics remain the primary influence on the market, JPMorgan is injecting $1 trillion into the US economy, and the HumanX AI Conference will take place in San Francisco this week.
Geopolitics in Control of the Market
Today marks Day 37 of the Iran War. U.S. equity futures went lower over the weekend (before rebounding to begin the week) as President Trump escalated rhetoric, declaring Tuesday “Power Plant and Bridge Day” in Iran — signaling potential targeting of critical infrastructure. At the same time, oil markets reacted sharply, with crude surging above $114/barrel as supply concerns intensified following the long weekend.
The backdrop remains highly fragile: shipping disruptions through key energy routes persist, infrastructure risks are rising, and each headline continues to drive outsized moves across commodities, equities, and rates.
Markets are now trading geopolitics first, with energy prices acting as the primary transmission mechanism into inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Any further escalation — or signs of de-escalation — could quickly shift the macro narrative.
“Iran does not hesitate to clearly express what it considers its legitimate demands and doing so should not be interpreted as a sign of compromise, but rather as a reflection of its confidence in defending its positions.”
JPMorgan to Deploy $1 Trillion to Strengthen US Economy
Source: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images
Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. must “get stronger” economically and militarily to maintain its global leadership, emphasizing that no country is guaranteed long-term success. He highlighted JPMorgan Chase’s plan to deploy over $1 trillion in capital toward strengthening the U.S. economy — targeting areas like infrastructure, supply chains, energy security, and broader economic resilience over the next decade.
This includes initiatives like the American Dream Initiative, focused on expanding economic opportunity, alongside a broader push to support industries critical to national security. Dimon’s message is that large institutions must play an active role in shaping policy and investing in the long-term competitiveness of the country — not just maximizing short-term profits.
He also pointed to rising geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as a growing threat to global stability and commodity markets. On the financial side, he flagged potential cracks in private credit and private equity, warning that weaker lending standards and extended holding periods could become problematic in a downturn.
The big takeaway: Dimon is positioning JPMorgan not just as a bank, but as a major capital allocator in the next phase of U.S. economic and geopolitical competition.
“We have a responsibility to help shape the right policies, not just for our company but for the country and the world. Many companies will only thrive if their countries thrive.”
HumanX AI Conference
The HumanX AI Conference kicks off this week in San Francisco, featuring a heavyweight lineup including Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and CoreWeave.
The event comes at a key moment for markets as investors look for confirmation that AI spending, infrastructure demand, and enterprise adoption remain durable into 2026. With many of the companies driving the AI cycle in one place, commentary around capex, monetization, and real-world use cases will be closely watched.
“HumanX is an unmissable, high-impact conference that unites 6,500 leaders, builders, and investors driving real transformation. It’s not just panels and hype; at HumanX, every session, meeting, and moment is designed to help you Learn, Connect, and Go—moving from inspiration to execution in just four days.”
Major Economic Events:
We will learn a lot about inflation this week via the CPI and PCE Price Index.
Monday (4/6): ISM services
Tuesday (4/7): Consumer credit, Durable goods orders, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks
Wednesday (4/8): Fed minutes (FOMC), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
Thursday (4/9): Core PCE, GDP (second revision), Initial jobless claims, PCE index, Personal income, Personal spending
Friday (4/10): CPI, Core CPI, Consumer sentiment (prelim), Factory orders
What We’re Watching:
Core PCE Price Index
US Core PCE Index Annual Change, 5-Year Chart, Trading Economics
Core PCE rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target. The monthly reading also ticked higher from December, signaling that underlying inflation pressures are not easing as quickly as hoped. Because core PCE strips out food and energy, it’s viewed as a cleaner measure of persistent inflation — making this stickiness more concerning for policymakers. The takeaway: inflation is still running hot beneath the surface, limiting the Fed’s flexibility to cut rates anytime soon.
Economists expect the following this week:
Core PCE Index: +0.4% vs. +0.4% the month prior
Core PCE (year-over-year): +3.0% vs. +3.1% the month prior
"Gasoline prices in the U.S. are poised to rise to around $3.75 per gallon nationally in the coming weeks, and it could take much of the year to trend back to pre-conflict prices near $3 per gallon. The spike in diesel fuel prices will feed into higher transportation costs and could lift price pressures across the supply chain. Further, the disruption of agricultural fertilizer shipments will place upward pressure on food prices."
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
March CPI is expected to come in hot, with forecasts around +1.0% month-over-month and +3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by a sharp surge in gasoline prices. A roughly 35% jump in gas alone could contribute as much as 0.5%–0.6% to the headline number, creating a meaningful near-term inflation spike. Even core CPI is expected to tick higher, suggesting broader price pressures beyond just energy.
For markets, this report is critical. A hotter-than-expected print could force a repricing of rate expectations and keep the Fed on hold — or even push the conversation back toward hikes. Conversely, a cooler reading would likely spark a short-term risk-on rally, but the underlying inflation trend remains a key concern.
Economists expect the following this week:
CPI (monthly): +1.0% vs +0.3% the month prior
CPI (annual): +3.3% vs. +2.4% the month prior
Core CPI (monthly): +0.3% vs. +0.2% the month prior
Core CPI (annual): +2.7% vs. +2.5% the month prior
“Economists project the US Consumer Price Index will jump +1% in March from February, the largest monthly increase since mid-2022, fueled by a steep rise in gasoline prices. This follows a $1 per gallon climb at the pump amid Middle East tensions disrupting oil shipments. Such a spike would mark a major setback for the disinflation trend that had buoyed markets earlier this year.”
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Cover Image Source: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images
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