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- 👉 "Liberation Day" Has Arrived...
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Key Earnings Announcements:
A much quieter week of earnings reports than we’ve seen in awhile… adding to the focus on “Liberation Day.”
Monday (3/31): PVH, Progress Software, Red Cat
Tuesday (4/1): Sportsman’s Warehouse
Wednesday (4/2): BlackBerry, Cognyte, RH
Thursday (4/3): Conagra Brands, Guess, MSC Industrial
Friday (4/4): N/A
What We’re Watching:
RH (RH)
Source: Caffital Research, Seeking Alpha
RH, the luxury home furnishings gallery, reports Q4 fiscal 2024 earnings Wednesday. Shares have crashed -50% from $450 in January to $225, slashing its market cap to $4B, after a post-election high faded away. CEO Gary Friedman’s December guidance included projected Q4 sales growth at +18-20%, relying on holiday momentum.
Q3’s +8% sales pop ($812M) and 12.3% margins teased a rebound, but 2024’s flatline at $3.2B and 11.6% margins — mirroring 2023’s slump — are disappointing investors. Net debt for RH most recently came in at $2.5B, with $230M in annual interest — eating into half of their $513M in EBITDA. High interest rates and a shaky luxury housing market have been hitting the market for wealthy buyers.
During the company’s last earnings report, CEO Gary Friedman said the following about tariffs. Investors will be eager for any updates.
“We do not expect a negative impact to margins as a result of the most recent communications regarding the potential for increased tariffs in 2025. We have been proactively moving sourcing away from China over the past several years with the expectation of fully exiting the country by the end of the second quarter. We are also transitioning products manufactured in Mexico and believe we can successfully reposition our sourcing with no disruption to the supply chain.”
RH (RH) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Trumps “Liberation Day” is upon us, Wall Street optimism is faltering, and Tesla will report its Q1 auto deliveries this week.
April 2nd is “Liberation Day” in the United States
Source: Yahoo Finance
Trump’s big tariff reveal is coming this Wednesday, April 2. Dubbed “Liberation Day,” the current expectation is for widespread reciprocal tariffs to be implemented that will target the $1.2T U.S. trade deficit. As of Monday morning, it’s believed that the tariffs will target 10-15 countries that have the worst trade imbalances with the United States — but a list has not yet been provided.
Goldman Sachs’ Alec Phillips warns of a downside surprise: “Markets expect a 9-point rate, but we see it doubling — officials want high stakes to negotiate.” Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha adds, “It’s a bigger deal than the market thinks.”
Last week’s 25% auto tariff teaser alone sank S&P 500 by -2%. Barclays recently slashed its 2025 S&P target to 5,900 from 6,600 — expecting widespread pain for stocks (at least in the short-term).
“This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America… We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.”
Negative Earnings Guidance for the S&P 500
S&P 500 firms are flashing warning signs. According to FactSet, 68 of 107 issuing Q1 2025 guidance went negative — topping the 5-year average (57) and 10-year average (62). Negative guidance — when a company’s EPS outlook dips below the previous consensus — signals tariff jitters are hitting hard, with 63% of guiders bearish versus 57% historically.
Wall Street’s 2025 optimism (S&P EPS growth pegged at 13% by FactSet) looks shaky as Q1 earnings season nears, starting April 11. Nike and FedEx have already cited tariff profit squeezes, and more companies could soon follow. Analysts are slashing estimates — with Goldman Sachs flagging a 2-3% S&P EPS hit if tariffs stick.
"A lot of people are worried about things like tariffs… it’s a broad economic slowdown that would be very difficult for companies to contend with."
Tesla (TSLA) Auto Deliveries
Tesla reports Q1 2025 auto deliveries Tuesday, with whispers of a plunge below 300,000 units — down from 386,810 in Q1 2024 and far under the 377,000 consensus, per Seeking Alpha. Weak European (-42% Jan-Feb) and Chinese (-49% Feb) sales, plus Model Y changeover hiccups, have been signaling trouble. Shares are down -30.5% YTD.
Analysts believe a sub-300K print could tank TSLA -10-15%, as brand issues tied to Musk’s political activity and tariff fears both continue to linger. Analysts at JPMorgan (355K), Morgan Stanley (351K), and William Blair (350K) slashed forecasts. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes that Tesla could soon lead a recovery for Big Tech after Trump’s “Liberation Day” passes.
"The winner in our view from this tariff is no one... as even Tesla still is hit from these tariffs and will be forced to raise prices.”
Major Economic Events:
ISM Manufacturing PMI, Jobs Report, and Unemployment Data.
Monday (3/31): Chicago Business Barometer
Tuesday (4/1): Auto Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, Job Openings, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin Speaks, S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday (4/2): ADP Employment, Factory Orders, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler Speaks
Thursday (4/3): Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks, Fed Vice Chairman Phillip Jefferson Speaks, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Services, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI, U.S. Trade Deficit
Friday (4/4): Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks, Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks, Fed Governor Michael Barr Speaks, U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Unemployment Rate
What We’re Watching:
ISM Manufacturing PMI
February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.3 from 50.9, missing the 50.5 forecast — barely above expansion. New orders tanked to 48.6 (lowest since March 2022), employment hit 47.6, and production slowed to 50.7. Prices soared to 62.4 — their highest level since June 2022 — while supplier delays rose (54.5).
Economists expect the ISM Manufacturing PMI to drop back into contraction territory in March — with median expectations of a 49.5 reading. You can read last month’s full report here.
"Demand eased, production stabilized, and destaffing continued as companies experience the first operational shock of the new administration’s tariff policy. Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery stoppages and manufacturing inventory impacts.”
Jobs Report / Unemployment Data
The U.S. added +151K jobs in February 2025, beating January’s revised +125K result — but missing the +160K forecast. Health care (+52K), financials (+21K), and transport (+18K) led the gains. Federal jobs dropped -10K amid resignations and government downsizing. Retail shed -6K jobs, likely from early tariff effects / the anticipation of more tariffs.
The +4.1% unemployment rate continues to hold, but Goldman sees tariffs and spending cuts cutting -50K-100K jobs monthly by mid-2025. Many analysts expect this to cause a surge in the unemployment rate.
“The near-term path of policy is cloudy, and so the economy’s path is cloudy, too… If the government stays the course on big tariff hikes and spending cuts, those policies would continue to weigh on job creation in the next few months, likely pushing the unemployment rate higher still.”
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