👉 Micron’s Rally Raises the Earnings Bar

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Welcome to your new week.

Micron tests the AI spending boom, Nike looks for evidence its turnaround is working, and inflation + jobs data put the Fed's next move back in focus.

Key Earnings Announcements:

A light earnings calendar puts Micron and Nike at the center of the week.

Monday (9/28): Jefferies, Vail Resorts

Tuesday (9/29): AAR, CarMax, Carnival, Concentrix, Uranium Energy

Wednesday (9/30): Conagra Brands, FactSet, Jabil, Micron, Progress Software

Thursday (10/1): Accenture, Acuity, McCormick, Nike

Friday (10/2): No major U.S. reports scheduled

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What We’re Watching:

1. Micron (MU)

Micron (+279.2% YTD) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Wednesday after the close, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Shares finished Friday at $1,082.28, and Wall Street is looking for $31.58 in GAAP earnings per share on $51.24 billion of revenue. That puts the sales forecast above management's $50 billion guidance midpoint. After a stock rally this large, simply delivering the quarter Micron promised may not be enough.

Last quarter showed why expectations keep moving higher. Revenue rose 345.7% to $41.46 billion from $9.30 billion a year earlier, GAAP earnings reached $24.67 per share, and gross margin climbed to 84.6%. Data-center revenue reached $25 billion, including $5 billion from enterprise solid-state drives. The growth is broader than high-bandwidth memory alone: AI infrastructure is also driving demand for the storage products that sit alongside it.

The constraint is supply. Management says customers want substantially more memory than Micron can ship, and it raised fiscal 2026 capital-spending plans to about $27 billion, with another substantial increase expected in fiscal 2027. Watch HBM4 shipments, the next-quarter outlook and the multiyear customer agreements intended to make demand more predictable. The question is whether new capacity can lift shipments without giving back the pricing power behind those margins.

• Analysts expect $31.58 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $51.24 billion.

• You can explore the most recent MU investor release here and here.

2. Nike (NKE)

Nike (-43.9% YTD) reports fiscal first-quarter results Thursday after the close. Consensus calls for $0.44 in GAAP earnings per share on $11.34 billion of revenue, a 3.2% sales decline from a year earlier. Shares closed Friday at $35.75, and the disconnect is the story: Nike's sales declines are modest compared with the damage to the stock. Investors need a reason to believe Elliott Hill's reset is getting closer to growth.

Last quarter's profit improvement needed an asterisk. Revenue fell 1% to $10.97 billion, while GAAP earnings of $0.72 per share included a $0.52 benefit from an expected tariff recovery. Gross margin reached 49.2%, but would have been 40.2% without that benefit. Wholesale sales rose 4% on a reported basis while Nike Direct fell 7%, showing that the retail-partner recovery has not yet carried over to Nike's own channels.

Greater China remains the soft spot. Sales there fell 17% on a currency-neutral basis last quarter, and management expects near-term trends to remain similar. For the first quarter overall, Nike guided to a low-to-mid-single-digit revenue decline but a slight year-over-year gross-margin improvement as it tightens inventory buys and reduces planned shipments to retailers. Watch China, direct-to-consumer sales and gross margin excluding one-time items. Better inventory discipline helps, but the turnaround still needs customers to buy more product at full price.

• Analysts expect $0.44 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $11.34 billion.

• You can explore the most recent NKE investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Iran diplomacy, OpenAI's developer showcase and Tesla's delivery update give investors three very different tests.

• Iran Talks Face Another Test

The week begins with another possible diplomatic opening, but not an agreed negotiating schedule. President Trump has said he expects further talks after rejecting Iran's latest proposal; Iranian officials say they are still waiting for an official response through mediators.

The proposal reportedly linked reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear talks to relief from the U.S. naval blockade and oil sanctions, alongside a regional ceasefire. That is a much bigger negotiation than simply getting the two sides into the same process. Reports of possible Monday contact should not be confused with a confirmed meeting.

For investors, the test is whether diplomacy changes the movement of actual cargoes. Watch for verifiable shipping access, insurer participation and a clear sequence for sanctions relief, rather than treating an upbeat negotiating headline as the end of the disruption. Energy costs are the connection to the rest of this week's inflation story.

• OpenAI Makes Its Developer Pitch

OpenAI holds DevDay Tuesday at Fort Mason in San Francisco, with Sam Altman's keynote streaming at 1 p.m. ET. The investor question is not just which model looks smartest on stage. It is whether developers get a cheaper, more reliable way to turn that intelligence into useful work.

Pre-event reporting points to a managed-agent service that could let developers run agents on OpenAI's infrastructure, though the company has not confirmed the launch lineup. If that arrives, the implications extend beyond model competition. OpenAI would be competing for more of the software stack, including the infrastructure and workflow layer that application companies currently build themselves.

Watch pricing, availability and evidence that agents can finish real tasks with predictable costs. Enterprise controls and the ability to monitor failures matter more to adoption than a polished demo. A useful launch should give developers a reason to ship products now, not just a reason to wait for the next model.

• Tesla Faces the Delivery Test

Tesla's third-quarter production and delivery update is expected Friday, although the company has not announced a release time. This is an operating update, not earnings. It gives investors a check on the car business while the broader stock story remains tied to autonomy.

Visible Alpha's delivery consensus stood at 454,000 in the September 24 preview, below the 480,126 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter. Watch the gap between production and deliveries, not just whether the headline clears expectations. A rising gap would raise different questions from a quarter in which Tesla draws down inventory.

Energy storage deserves its own look after Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh last quarter. The combination of vehicle deliveries, production and storage deployments should show where operating momentum is building. It will not yet tell investors what incentives, financing offers or product mix did to margins; that requires the later earnings report.

Major Economic Events:

Wednesday's inflation report and Friday's jobs data could reshape the argument for the Fed's next move.

Monday (9/28): Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.

Tuesday (9/29): Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices; JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence.

Wednesday (9/30): ADP employment; August PCE, personal income and spending, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP; Chicago PMI.

Thursday (10/1): Initial jobless claims; final S&P Global manufacturing PMI; ISM manufacturing and construction spending.

Friday (10/2): September employment report; factory orders.

What We’re Watching:

1. PCE

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases August’s personal consumption expenditures price index Wednesday, and economists expect headline inflation to hold at 3.7% YoY, with core inflation unchanged at 3.3%. That would leave both measures stuck at July’s levels rather than delivering another step lower. With the Fed already back to raising rates, investors need evidence that inflation is cooling, not simply reassurance that it has stopped getting worse.

The spending side of the report could complicate that picture. Personal spending is expected to rise 0.8% MoM, up from 0.2% in July, while personal income is forecast to increase 0.5% against 0.4% previously. Those spending figures are not adjusted for inflation, so the distinction matters: consumers paying more is not the same as consumers buying more. The inflation-adjusted spending number will show how much actual demand sits behind the larger dollar total.

Look past the annual inflation headline to the monthly core reading and the revisions. Wednesday’s release includes the BEA’s annual update, which can change the historical comparisons investors have been using to judge progress. Cooler monthly core inflation alongside continued real spending growth would support the case that demand can hold up without another inflation acceleration. Sticky core prices and stronger real spending would leave the argument for further tightening intact.

Economists expect the following:

• Headline PCE inflation: 3.7% YoY expected vs. 3.7% prior

• Core PCE inflation: 3.3% YoY expected vs. 3.3% prior

• Personal spending: +0.8% MoM expected vs. +0.2% prior

• Personal income: +0.5% MoM expected vs. +0.4% prior

2. Nonfarm Payrolls

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September’s employment report Friday, and consensus calls for 100,000 additional jobs against August’s 162,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. That would represent slower hiring without an outright deterioration in the labor market. For stocks, the distinction is important: a strong report supports consumer spending, but an unexpectedly hot one could also strengthen the case for another rate increase.

August’s rebound came after gains of just 21,000 in July and 31,000 in June, so the improvement is still resting heavily on one month. Friday’s revisions will help determine whether that rebound was the beginning of a stronger trend or an isolated jump. A September gain near expectations would look more convincing if August holds up than if the previous month’s strength gets revised away.

The market has a fairly narrow target. Hiring near consensus, moderating wage growth and stable labor-force participation would support the case that the economy can keep expanding without putting fresh pressure on inflation. Stronger hiring accompanied by faster wages would make the Fed’s job harder, particularly if Wednesday’s PCE report also runs hot. A weak payroll number paired with downward revisions would create a different problem: less inflation pressure, but a less reliable consumer heading into the fourth quarter.

Economists expect the following:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +100,000 expected vs. +162,000 prior

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% expected vs. 4.1% prior

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