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- 👉 Mixed Bag of Earnings, Inflation, & Tariffs
Welcome to your new week. Congratulations to any Philadelphia Eagles fans that are reading this morning.
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Key Earnings Announcements:
The busy earnings season continues with major consumer names — headlined by Coca-Cola, Coinbase, DraftKings, John Deere, Monday.com, Shopify, and more.
Monday (2/10): AsteraLabs, Fluence, Inspire, McDonald’s, Monday.com, Onsemi
Tuesday (2/11): Autonation, BP, CocaCola, DoorDash, Energy Transfer Partners, Humana, Shopify, SuperMicro Computer, Upstart
Wednesday (2/12): Albemarle, Barrick, Biogen, Cisco, CVS, Dutchbros, KraftHeinz, MGM Resorts, Reddit, Robinhood, Vertiv
Thursday (2/13): Airbnb, Applied Materials, Coinbase, Crocs, Datadog, DraftKings, John Deere, Palo Alto Networks, Roku, Sony, Twilio, Wynn Resorts
Friday (2/14): Air Canada, Enbridge, Moderna
What We’re Watching:
Robinhood (HOOD)
Robinhood stock has skyrocketed +300% over the past year, driven by expansion into Index options, futures trading, and its premium Gold subscription. The company is diversifying, moving beyond mobile with Robinhood Legend for web trading — potentially doubling its addressable market.
Despite strong growth (+76% AUC to $152B), risks remain: regulatory scrutiny, competition, and gamification concerns. Robinhood must prove it can scale profitably and retain users in a low-barrier industry — which is challenging as a highly-competitive landscape requires the company to continually innovate.
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Stock Performance, All-Time Chart, Seeking Alpha
Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify’s stock is up nearly +150% over the past five years, rebounding from post-pandemic lows. Revenue (+26% YoY) and GMV (+24%) continue to show strong growth, but enterprise adoption remains slow and international expansion is costly. Payments penetration hit 62%, boosting Shopify’s financial ecosystem — but lower-margin services are pressuring profitability (gross margin fell to 51.7%). With a high 92x P/E, sustained growth is critical as tariff risks loom for merchants.
While gross margins remain in line with the sector, they’ve edged down (-1.61% vs. five-year average). These margins will continue to be tested because Shopify’s next phase — scaling enterprise and international markets — won’t be cheap or quick. Meanwhile, tariff risks between China and the U.S. could squeeze margins for Shopify’s SMB merchants, especially drop shippers relying on duty-free imports.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
More news about tariffs is sure to test the market, and 13F filings will start to come in by the end of the week.
New Tariff Updates
President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, impacting major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The U.S. relies on aluminum imports for over 80% of its demand, with major suppliers including Canada and Mexico, while steel imports play a crucial role in sectors like aerospace and auto manufacturing. The announcement led to a surge in U.S. steel and aluminum stocks, with Alcoa Corp. rising as much as +6.3%, Century Aluminum Co. up +11%, and United States Steel Corp. jumping +15%.
Trump also plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on countries taxing U.S. goods, though details remain unclear. In response, China has implemented retaliatory tariffs on $14 billion worth of U.S. imports, while the EU may reinstate suspended tariffs on $3 billion of U.S. products. Trump's tariff strategy remains uncertain, as he has previously threatened, delayed, or adjusted duties, including a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The move raises concerns about higher costs for manufacturers, potential supply chain disruptions, and strained global trade relations.
“Canada could bear the brunt of tariffs as the top supplier of both metals to its southern neighbor. It accounts for 58% of US aluminum imports by volume, followed by 6% from the United Arab Emirates, and 4% from China, according to figures from the US government. For steel, Canada is again the biggest at 23%, followed by Brazil at 16%, Mexico at 12%, then South Korea at 10%.”
13F Filings
Source: Inc. Magazine
Institutional investment managers overseeing at least $100 million in assets are required to file Form 13F with the SEC within 45 days after each calendar quarter's end. This disclosure provides a snapshot of their equity holdings, offering transparency into the investment activities of significant market players.
The deadline for reporting Q3 holdings is this Friday 2/14. We will be keeping an eye on influential investors portfolios like Buffet, Soros, Ackman & more at the GRIT VIP Member Hub linked here.
For everyone that’s interested in crypto — 13F filings are a great time to see which major market participants have made allocations toward Bitcoin ETFs or anything else in the space. Here’s a good breakdown for you to review.
It’s important to remember that 13F filings could be showing positions that have already changed substantially for money managers. They are a valuable resource, but probably shouldn’t be used as the sole reason for a new investment.
“13Fs have several problems, the biggest one is that it’s backwards looking and only represents a point in time. 13Fs are filed within 45 days after a quarter is finished. This means we are getting outdated information. Within the quarter, companies can also trade around and some funds also do window dressing, meaning that they sell losers to have a better-looking portfolio by only displaying winning positions…
It’s different if one looks at long-only funds focusing on long-term investing. One example is TCI Fund Management, a concentrated quality investment fund and activist investor that rarely trades in and out of positions.”
Major Economic Events:
Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales headline this busy week.
Monday (2/10): None Scheduled
Tuesday (2/11): Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack Speaks, Fed Chair Powell Testifies to Congress, Fed Gov Bowman Speaks, New York Fed Pres Williams Speaks, San Fran Fed President Daly Speaks
Wednesday (2/12): Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic Speaks, Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, Fed Chair Powell Testifies to Congress, Fed Gov Waller Speaks, New York Fed Pres Williams Speaks
Thursday (2/13): Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index
Friday (2/14): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Dallas Fed Pres Logan Speaks, Industrial Production, Import Price Index, U.S. Retail Sales
What We’re Watching:
Consumer Price Index
U.S. inflation ticked up for a third straight month, hitting +2.9% in December (from +2.7%), matching expectations. A weaker energy drag and rising food, transport, and auto prices drove the increase. With inflation still sticky, the Fed’s rate path remains in focus.
This Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week. If we see quality progress being made for the Consumer Price Index (especially Core CPI) — then this market could get the green light to move higher.
Economists expect a +2.8% YoY CPI print (slightly below +2.9% the month before), and a +3.1% YoY Core CPI print (slightly below +3.2% the month before).
“Today’s CPI may help the Fed feel a little more dovish. It won’t change expectations for a pause later this month, but it should curb some of the talk about the Fed potentially raising rates. And judging by the market’s initial response, investors appeared to feel a sense of relief after a few months of stickier inflation readings.”
Retail Sales
The first retail sales report of 2025 is coming up on Friday. Headline sales are expected to be flat for January, but the control group — which is critical for GDP — may rise +0.4%, slowing from December’s +0.7% gain.
A soft read could fuel rate cut bets, while strength may keep the Fed cautious.
“Thursday’s figures point to a consumer that held up well in the holiday season, supported by wages rising faster than prices. While underlying inflation eased last month, Americans are still contending with a high cost of living, and some retailers are considering raising prices in anticipation of higher tariffs on imported goods.”
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