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Monday.com, On Running, Shopify
Happy Sunday, everyone.
If youâve not yet tuned into Episode 89 of the Rich Habits Podcast, you definitely should! Robert Croak and I share our six favorite tax-saving strategies for 2024. The year is almost over, which means time might be running out to implement these strategies!
Personally, my favorite strategy is donating appreciated stock. I know it doesnât seem as sexy as the âtriple tax-advantagedâ HSA, but if done correctly you could really experience some major tax savings, help those in need, all while keeping the exact same amount of money in your brokerage account.
Let me explainâŚ
Letâs assume you have a well-diversified portfolio and youâre doing fine financially. If you invested $5K into Palantir (PLTR) stock in 2023, itâs now worth $50K â with $45K of that being profit. Assuming you didnât need the profits to sustain your lifestyle, you could donate the $45K of Palantir profits to your favorite non-profit entity (giving you a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing youâre helping people) while simultaneously giving yourself your $5K original investment back.
You still have your original $5K, and now youâre able to write-off $45K against your taxable income for 2024. My effective tax rate is close to 30%, which means if youâre anything like me â this donation would have saved you $13.5K in taxes!
You have the exact same amount of money you started with ($5K), youâre helping those in need (through your donation), and youâre saving $13.5K in taxes.
Itâs not for everyone, but if done correctly it can really move the needle from a tax-savings perspective.
Again, listen to the episode! We dive into a ton more strategies.
Portfolio Updates (YTD Performance):
Putting my Bitcoin position at the top this time because HOT DAMN! Look at those profits â absolutely unreal. Itâs been so rewarding seeing the consistent dollar cost averaging that took place during 2023 and 2024 finally paying off!
Wealth occurs when consistency meets discipline.
We had strong conviction that the price of Bitcoin had bottomed around the $23K range in early-2023, and I also knew weâd see another crypto super-cycle at some point â alongside the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs â and now weâre enjoying the fruits of our labor.
Iâll continue to hold my Bitcoin position until we see $120-150K per Bitcoin. At those prices, Iâll begin to scale out of my investment â hoping to sell everything before the bubble pops once again. Once back in cash, Iâll pay my taxes and then re-allocate my capital into dividend growth stocks and ETFs.
Speaking of dividend growth stocks and ETFs, the performance of the Dividend Growth Stocks section of my portfolio is being dragged down by 4 positions who (despite still being in the green this year) are underperforming the S&P 500.
Union Pacific (UNP)
Analog Devices (ADI)
Realty Income Corporation (O)
VICI Properties (VICI)
The other 14 positions inside of that section of the portfolio are all either on-par with or outperforming the S&P 500 â a good thing!
Stay tuned for my 2024 Portfolio Recap Analysis coming your way in December.
Week in Review â Too Long, Didnât Read:
Monday.comâs 2nd largest customer added +35,000 more seats, On-Runningâs DTC revenue expanded by +50%, Shopifyâs app facilitated $17B in payments during the quarter, Money-market funds surpass $7 trillion, crypto continues to see record inflows, the world was watching Netflixâs boxing match, Consumer Inflation progress stalled, Retail Sales slightly rose, and Wholesale Inflation accelerated.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Monday.comâs 2nd largest customer added +35,000 more seats, On-Runningâs DTC revenue expanded by +50%, and Shopifyâs app facilitated $17B in payments during the quarter.
Monday.com (MNDY)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $251.0 million, an increase of +32% YoY
Operating Loss: -$27.4 million, compared to -$2.5 million last year
Net Loss: -$12.1 million, compared to $7.5 million last year
Earnings Release Callout
âReaching $1 billion in ARR marks a major milestone in our journey as a company, and we are more excited than ever to enter this next stage of growth, building on the strong foundation weâve established. As we look ahead to the rest of the year and into FY25, we are confident in our ability to build on this momentum and continue to deliver strong growth at scale.â
My Takeaway
As you all know, monday.com is one of the larger positions in my âLong Riskyâ section of the portfolio â and for good reason! Iâm up +117% over the last 18-months.
Their stock price fell by -17% after earnings. Wall Street analysts assume itâs because their stock rallied +73% YTD and this correction was it coming back to reality.
A few things I liked:
1) Revenue grew by +33%, above their +28% guidance. Management also raised their 2024 full year revenue guidance to reflect +32% of growth (now sitting at $965M expected). I continue to believe their +26% growth expectations for 2025 is on the conservative side.
2) Theyâre executing well on âmoving up-marketâ and the sale of add-on products. The company added 194 customers with ARR over $50K and 71 customers with ARR over $100K. Their second largest customer expanded to 60,000 seats from 25,000.
3) Their EBIT margin of 13% was well ahead of Wall Streetâs 9% expectation â with full year 2024 operating margin to come in around 13% vs. 10% expectations. Their free cash flow guide was also raised by +$15M.
A few things Iâm keeping an eye on:
1) Macro-environment remains choppy. Despite choppiness, management reiterated that their demand remains stable.
2) Head of Sales transition â their CRO is moving on at year-end after seven years with the company. A search is underway to replace them.
As you might know, Iâve had very candid conversations with their CFO via the After Earnings podcast I used to co-host. Their management team is as legit as they come, and I didnât see a material change in the underlying business to warrant any sort of exiting of my position.
I remain bullish, and continue to hold shares.
On Holding (ONON)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $635.8 million, an increase of +32% YoY
Operating Income: $72.6 million, an increase of +25% YoY
Profits: $30.5 million, compared to $58.7 million last year
Earnings Release Callout
âOur commitment to innovation and excellence has allowed us to capture this demand and deliver outstanding performance, particularly in our DTC channel.
The resulting net sales and profitability ahead of our expectations puts us in a position to significantly increase our outlook for the full year 2024, and fuels our confidence as we head into the holiday season and continue to shape the future of sportswear."
My Takeaway
Wow! What an incredible year this company has experienced â Iâm up +98% on my original investment. Letâs dig into the numbers!
Led by a +51% increase in their direct-to-consumer distribution, the companyâs revenue accelerated by +32% during the quarter â driving a top and bottom-line beat. Their full year 2024 outlook now calls for âat least $2.58 billion,â up +$33M than they expected last quarter⌠talk about demand for a product! Theyâre also expecting a 17% adj. EBITDA margin, allowing nearly $440M of that revenue to be realized as adj. EBITDA âprofit.â
The brand successfully leveraged the summer events (Paris Olympics, tennis majors, etc.) and the Zendaya campaign to raise the brandâs profile globally with younger audiences. Brand awareness has hit an inflection point, brand health and momentum into the Holiday season is encouraging â and I really believe theyâll be able to keep this up in 2025!
Inventory also decreased by -18% YoY, which is 3% more depletion than expected. With that being said, their apparel inventory increased by +35% during the quarter â with product flow constraints apparently impacting this figure. However, management expressed their confidence in apparel re-acceleration in Q4 based on pre-order for Spring / Summer 2025.
All in all, Iâm really excited about this! Iâll remain a happy shareholder.
Shopify (SHOP)
Key Metrics
Revenue: $2.2 billion, an increase of +26% YoY
Operating Income: $283.0 million, an increase of +131% YoY
Profits: $828.0 million, an increase of +15% YoY
Earnings Release Callout
âShopify achieved 26% revenue growth and 19% free cash flow margin this quarter, marking our sixth consecutive quarter of greater than 25% revenue growth excluding logistics.
Moreover, we have grown free cash flow margin sequentially each quarter this year, consistent with what we delivered last year. These results demonstrate the durability of our business, our multiple avenues for growth and continued discipline of balancing both future growth investment and operational leverage.â
My Takeaway
Before we dive into their earnings results, click here to watch an awesome interview I did with President of Shopify, Harley Finkelstein.
The company is experiencing strength across the board! Shopify reported results with GMV, gross profit, and EBIT all above Wall Streetâs expectations by 3%, 2%, and $65M, respectively. At a segment level, merchant solutions delivered strong growth at +26% YoY â driven in part by payment penetration gains. On profitability, Q3 EBIT outperformance was driven by fixed cost leverage and lower-than-anticipated marketing spend.
Management guided for their Q4 revenue growth to come in around the âmid-high 20%â range â compared to Wall Streetâs +23% expectations. The company, however, is expecting gross margin compression due to a growing payment mix and PayPal contribution. Overall, Q3 was a very strong quarter for the company.
Their product pipeline remains healthy and the company is executive at extraordinary levels across key growth initiatives â keeping shareholders like myself very happy. Iâm up +185% on my original investment!
International GMV continues to grow ahead of North America, accelerating to +30% YoY during the quarter. Meanwhile, cross-border represented ~14% of GMV. Shopifyâs Payments penetration grew to 62% of GMV during the quarter, with Shop Pay App GMV growing to $17B.
Shopifyâs free cash flow margins expanded +3.4% to 19% â meanwhile Q4 outlook implies high-teens FCF margins for 2024. The company guided to stable FCF margins, which likely assumes some conservatism.
I remain a very happy Shopify shareholder!
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Money-market funds surpass $7 trillion, crypto continues to see record inflows, and the world was watching Netflixâs boxing match.
Money-Market Funds Surpass $7 Trillion
Money market fund assets under management have reached an unprecedented milestone â surpassing $7 trillion for the first time in history. Over the past week alone, these funds attracted a remarkable +$91 billion in inflows â even as the Federal Reserve announced another 25-basis-point rate cut.
This influx highlights the strong demand for the relatively safe and high-yielding investment opportunities money market funds provide during periods of economic uncertainty.
The total assets in money market funds have doubled in just 4.5 years, reflecting their growing popularity among both retail and institutional investors. According to the Crane 100 Money Fund Index (which monitors the 100 largest money market funds), the average yield on these funds currently stands at 4.51%. This competitive yield continues to draw investors seeking stable returns without the volatility of equities or long-term fixed-income instruments.
The surging inflows suggest that investors are acting as though rate cuts may soon be off the table, positioning themselves to lock in attractive yields.
The trend underscores the enduring appeal of money market funds as a haven during periods of monetary policy shifts and broader economic uncertainties.
Crypto Sees Record Inflows
In the past week, U.S. large-cap equity funds experienced an unprecedented surge with a record $44.1 billion in inflows â signaling renewed investor confidence in the stock market. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency funds also reached a historic milestone, amassing $6 billion in weekly inflows. These robust inflows reflect a broader "risk-on" sentiment as investors seek opportunities in equities and digital assets amid evolving market conditions.
Looking at the broader trends, Bank of America Global Research noted a significant shift in asset allocation as capital moved from bonds to stocks and from gold to cryptocurrencies. This rotation suggests that investors are recalibrating their portfolios to align with the current macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape â favoring assets with higher growth potential.
Despite these shifts, many investors continuing to hold substantial cash and cash-equivalent positions (as we just highlighted). This cautious optimism indicates that while market sentiment is improving, some uncertainty lingers as participants await further clarity on policy directions and economic stability.
âBitcoin is now in price discovery mode after breaking through all-time highs early last Wednesday morning when it was officially declared that Trump won the election⌠Strong positive sentiment is likely to persist through the balance of 2024 and [we] see bitcoin prices potentially reaching the six-figure mark by the end of this year.â
Jake Paul & Mike Tyson Fight Broke Records, Had Buffering Issues
Source: Getty Images for Netflix / Variety
The boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson broke records, with Netflix reporting 60 million households tuning in â peaking at 65 million concurrent streams.
The event also drew 72,300 attendees to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas â generating over $18 million in gate receipt. This marks the largest ticketing revenue in boxing history outside Nevada.
50 million households watched the women's boxing match between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano â marking it as the most-watched professional womenâs sports event in U.S. history.
In addition to shattering streaming and attendance records, the event saw widespread commercial distribution, streaming in over 6,000 U.S. bars and restaurants. Despite its success, some Netflix viewers experienced disruptions, including buffering and glitches, peaking at 95,000 complaints. The fight underscored Netflixâs potential in live sports broadcasting, as it departed from traditional pay-per-view models â offering the match free to subscribers as it continues expanding into the sports market.
Netflix really needs to fix those buffering issues before they host NFL games in DecemberâŚ
"Tracking website downdetector.com showed a surge of reports of problems with Netflixâs website beginning just before 8 p.m. local time. They climbed to more than 88,700 reports around 9:30 p.mâŚ
Users on X shared gifs of highly pixelated videos, or images of wires and comments suggesting that the streaming companyâs IT department must be in for a rough night. Some even dusted off the old âconnectingâ screen from the internet's America Online days to make a joke about the problems.â
Major Economic Events:
Consumer Inflation progress stalled, Retail Sales slightly rose, and Wholesale Inflation accelerated.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Source: Bloomberg
In October, the annual inflation rate reached +2.6%, in-line with expectations, as the consumer price index (CPI) rose +0.2% for the month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and +3.3% annually â also meeting forecasts.
Shelter costs remained the largest contributor to inflation, rising +0.4% in October and accounting for over half the CPI increase. Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings edged up +0.1% for the month and +1.4% over the year, providing slight relief for workers.
Stock market futures rose, and Treasury yields fell following the report, with traders boosting odds of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, uncertainties around tariffs and government spending under President-elect Donald Trump could impact inflation and future Fed policy adjustments.
âNo surprises from the CPI, so for now the Fed should be on course to cut rates again in December. Next year is a different story, though, given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and other Trump administration policies⌠The markets are already weighing the possibility that the Fed will cut fewer times in 2025 than previously thought, and that they may hit the pause button as early as January.â
Retail Sales
October retail sales rose +0.4%, surpassing the expected +0.3% increase, driven largely by a +1.6% jump in auto sales. September sales were revised significantly higher to a +0.8% gain from an earlier estimate of +0.4%, signaling stronger consumer spending than initially thought. However, October sales excluding auto and gas rose only +0.1%, and the control group declined +0.1%, both falling short of expectations.
Despite weaker October data in some categories, robust September revisions suggest consumer spending remains a key driver of economic growth. Economists noted that the data indicates continued strength in the U.S. economy, though the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.
"The underlying weakness in Octoberâs retail sales was accompanied by an upward revision to Septemberâs gain, suggesting that consumption growth is still going strong.â
Producer Price Index (PPI)
US producer prices rose +0.2% in October, with core producer prices (excluding food and energy) climbing +0.3%, both slightly exceeding expectations. Portfolio management fees surged +3.6%, the most in six months, contributing to the increase and signaling potential pressure on the Fedâs preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index.
Annual PPI inflation stood at +2.4%, while core PPI reached +3.1%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures despite broader stabilization earlier in the year. Additional gains were seen in services and goods prices, driven by increases in machinery wholesaling margins, cable services, and carbon steel scrap costs, though declines in wholesale food and energy tempered the overall rise.
The report has led some economists to revise their core PCE inflation forecasts upward, while markets have trimmed expectations for a December rate cut. Meanwhile, unemployment claims fell to their lowest since May, underscoring continued labor market resilience.
Source: Bloomberg
âWe should expect a bit more volatility in producer prices, especially as businesses manage supply chains amid the risk of tariffs.â
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