👉 NVIDIA Earnings On Deck....

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Welcome to your new week.

The most valuable company on earth reports Wednesday night into a tape that has already lost its nerve, and 36 hours later a brand-new Fed chair walks to a podium in Wyoming for the first time.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Software and retail close out the season, with the single largest print of the quarter landing Wednesday after the bell.

Monday (8/24): Gorilla Technology Group, Napco Security Technologies, PDD Holdings, PicPay, Tuya, Woodside Energy, XPeng

Tuesday (8/25): Bank of Montreal, BOSS Zhipin, Box, Dick's Sporting Goods, EHang, Electromed, Gold Fields, Heico, Intuit, Joyy, nCino, Qifu Technology, Scotiabank, SelectQuote, Semtech, Strattec, Vipshop, Zoom Communications

Wednesday (8/26): Abercrombie & Fitch, Agilent Technologies, Bath & Body Works, CrowdStrike, Donaldson, Dycom Industries, Haidilao, J.M. Smucker, Kohl's, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Nutanix, Okta, Ooma, Photronics, Salesforce, Synopsys, Veeva Systems, Williams-Sonoma

Thursday (8/27): Affirm Holdings, Autodesk, Best Buy, Bilibili, Burlington Stores, CIBC, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Elastic, Gap, HealthEquity, Hormel Foods, IREN, Marvell Technology, Royal Bank of Canada, Rubrik, SentinelOne, TD Bank, Ulta Beauty, Workday

Friday (8/28): Chagee Holdings, Miniso Group

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What We’re Watching:

1. NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA (+15.1% YTD) reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings Wednesday after the close, and it is the only number this week that can move the entire index. Shares closed Friday at $214.72 for a $5.20 trillion market cap, 8.9% below the $235.74 record close set on May 14. The stock has slipped in each of the last three sessions into the print, which tells you how much is riding on the guide rather than the quarter.

Last quarter, NVIDIA delivered revenue of $81.6 billion, up 20% sequentially and 85% year over year, with Data Center alone at $75.2 billion. GAAP diluted EPS was $2.39 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.87. Management guided Q2 to $91.0 billion plus or minus 2% with gross margins around 75%, and explicitly assumed zero Data Center compute revenue from China.

This quarter, the bar is a rounding error above the guide. Consensus sits at $91.9 billion in revenue and $2.08 in adjusted EPS, roughly 96% revenue growth against the $46.7 billion NVIDIA did a year ago. But the quarter is not the trade. The Street is carrying about $104 billion for October, and a guide below that number is the setup for a selloff even on a beat. Watch the Vera Rubin ramp commentary, whether any China compute revenue gets added back into the outlook, and how management frames hyperscaler capex into 2027.

• Analysts expect $2.06 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $92.07 billion.

• You can explore the most recent NVDA investor release here and here.

2. Salesforce (CRM)

Salesforce (-21.0% YTD) reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings Wednesday after the close, on the same night as NVIDIA, and it is the cleanest test yet of whether enterprise AI spending actually converts into software revenue. Shares closed Friday at $209.17 for a $171.3 billion market cap, 43.1% below the $367.87 record close from December 2024. The stock trades at 24.2 times trailing earnings, which is the market pricing Salesforce as a company AI disrupts rather than one AI lifts.

Last quarter, Salesforce delivered revenue of $11.13 billion, up 13% year over year and 12% in constant currency, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.88 against a $3.13 consensus. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded 250 basis points to 34.8%, cRPO hit $33.6 billion, and operating cash flow came in at $6.7 billion. Agentforce annual recurring revenue crossed $1.2 billion, up 205%, and the company delivered 3.8 billion agentic work units. The stock fell anyway.

This quarter, consensus is $11.33 billion in revenue and $3.27 in adjusted EPS, which lands at the top of management's own $11.27 billion to $11.35 billion guide and a penny above the high end on earnings. That is the same trap Walmart walked into last week. Watch cRPO growth as the real forward indicator, whether Agentforce ARR keeps compounding at triple digits, and whether management holds the second-half organic reacceleration it promised in May. Marketing, Commerce, and Tableau are still the soft spots.

• Analysts expect $1.80 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $11.33 billion.

• You can explore the most recent CRM investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Canada sets a retaliation date after trade talks collapse, the Strait of Hormuz stays shut as Washington escalates on Iran, and an $880 million brokerage merger creates a 180,000-agent platform.

• Canada Retaliates As Trade Talks Collapse

Trade talks between Washington and Ottawa fell apart Friday, and just after midnight Saturday the United States began collecting an additional 50% duty on roughly $20 billion to $28 billion of Canadian goods. The list runs through wine, furniture, dairy, cement, clothing, fishing rods, and hockey equipment, and unlike most existing measures it applies even to goods that would otherwise qualify under the USMCA. Prime Minister Mark Carney recalled his negotiators and suspended talks.

Canada's response has a date on it. Retaliatory tariffs take effect September 8, the day after Labour Day, aimed at American steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called the breakdown a missed opportunity for Canada and said no further talks are scheduled. Premiers Doug Ford, David Eby, Wab Kinew, and Scott Moe lined up behind Carney, with Alberta's Danielle Smith the lone dissent.

The market question is the two-week gap. Between now and September 8 there is an open window for a deal, and every day it stays open is a day the exposed names trade on headlines rather than fundamentals. Watch the Canadian dollar, cross-border rail and truck volumes, and the auto supply chain through Windsor. Watch too whether the September Canada Investment Summit in Toronto becomes a venue for a climbdown or a stage for escalation.

• Iran Sanctions Push Oil Higher

Brent settled at $94.39 Friday, up 6.39% on the week, and WTI settled at $87.06, up 5.66%. Both touched their highest levels since July 24. The move came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the United States will impose the toughest sanctions in history on Iran and intends to collapse the regime.

The supply math behind the move is worse than the headlines suggest. The 60-day memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expired Friday with no renewal, leaving the waterway effectively blockaded. Iranian exports through Hormuz fell to 46,800 barrels per day in the week of August 10, down from 1.545 million barrels per day in the week of June 29, according to Kpler. That is a 97% collapse in seven weeks. The U.S. military has escorted more than 660 million barrels through the strait since early May.

This is now a two-sided squeeze. Crude is tight because Iranian barrels are stranded, and diesel is tight because Ukrainian strikes keep taking Russian refining capacity offline. That combination hits transport, chemicals, and airlines directly, and it lands in the July PCE print Wednesday and every inflation print after it. Watch tanker rates, the Brent-WTI spread, and whether OPEC members signal any willingness to fill the gap.

• Real And RE/MAX Close To Form Real REMAX Group

The $880 million combination of The Real Brokerage and RE/MAX Holdings closes Monday, after the Supreme Court of British Columbia granted final approval on Friday. Real executes a 10-for-1 share consolidation at 4:01 p.m. ET Monday, and the combined Real REMAX Group begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker REAX at Tuesday's open.

The cash election came in heavily oversubscribed. Holders of roughly 18.5 million RE/MAX Class A shares elected the $13.80 cash option, about $255 million against an $80 million cap, so those holders get prorated to roughly $4.33 in cash plus 0.3535 Real REMAX shares. Stock electors receive 0.515 shares. Approximately 99% of Real votes cast and 78.8% of RE/MAX voting power backed the deal on August 14, and the Justice Department granted early HSR termination in mid-July.

On a pro forma 2025 basis the combined company generates about $2.3 billion in revenue and $157 million in adjusted EBITDA across more than 180,000 agents. That makes this the largest agent-count platform in North American residential real estate, built on a technology-first brokerage model bolted onto a franchise network. Watch the index mechanics Tuesday, agent retention through the fall selling season, and how management frames the synergy target on its first combined call. Existing home sales are still running near multi-decade lows, which is exactly why this deal exists.

Major Economic Events:

The Jackson Hole symposium opens Thursday and July PCE lands Wednesday morning.

Monday (8/24): Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech, 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions

Tuesday (8/25): S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for June, FHFA house price index for June, New home sales for July, Conference Board consumer confidence for August, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey, ADP weekly employment change, 2-year note auction

Wednesday (8/26): July personal income and spending, July PCE and core PCE price indexes, Q2 GDP second estimate, July durable goods orders, Core capital goods orders, MBA mortgage applications, EIA petroleum inventories, 5-year note auction

Thursday (8/27): Initial jobless claims, Continuing claims, Advance goods trade balance, Retail and wholesale inventories, Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, ECB meeting accounts, Jackson Hole symposium opens, 7-year note auction

Friday (8/28): Chicago PMI for August, University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for August, Preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh keynote at Jackson Hole, Canada Q2 GDP

What We’re Watching:

1. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

The Kansas City Fed opens its annual symposium at Jackson Lake Lodge on Thursday, and Friday morning Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Chair of the Federal Reserve. He was sworn in on May 22. Roughly 120 invitees from more than 70 countries attend, and this year's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" — the first time payments and fintech have been the organizing center of the conference.

The timing is what makes it consequential. The speech falls about 18 days before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which arrives with a fresh dot plot. The Fed has held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% since March, and the July meeting produced a 9-3 vote with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan all dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. Three dissents in the same direction is a rare signal, and nothing has resolved it since.

Warsh has spent his career arguing that markets lean too hard on Fed forward guidance, and he offered none at his July press conference. That is the tension heading into Friday. A chair who does not believe in guidance is standing at the one podium where every predecessor used it. Read for how he frames the inflation-versus-labor tradeoff, whether he acknowledges the hawkish minority on his own committee, and any signal on how this Fed intends to communicate at all. The agenda itself is not published until Wednesday evening.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Fed funds target range: 3.50% to 3.75%, unchanged since March 2026

• July FOMC vote: 9-3, with three dissents in favor of a hike

• Next FOMC decision: September 15-16, with an updated dot plot

2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports July PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside personal income and spending, July durable goods, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP. Four releases in the same minute, nine hours before NVIDIA reports. Core PCE is expected at 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year, unchanged from June. Headline PCE is expected at 0.1% and 3.6%, down from 3.7%.

The problem is not the monthly number, it is the stall. Core PCE has printed at or above 3.3% for four straight months, the longest stretch at that level since the fall of 2023, and it sits a full 130 basis points above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's own July projections put 2026 PCE inflation at 3.6% and core at 3.3%, meaning the central bank has effectively penciled in no further progress this year. July PPI came in unchanged, which is the main argument the doves have for a September hold.

Energy is the wildcard. Brent rose more than 6% last week on the Iran escalation, and that feeds straight into the August and September headline prints even if core holds. Also worth watching: personal spending is expected at 0.2% against income at 0.3%, meaning the savings rate ticks up and the consumer keeps pulling back. If core surprises to the upside two days before Warsh speaks, the hawkish minority on the FOMC gets a lot louder.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Core PCE: +0.2% MoM & 3.3% YoY expected

• Headline PCE: +0.1% MoM & 3.6% YoY expected vs. 3.7% prior

• Durable goods orders: +0.7% expected vs. +0.3% prior

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