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Together with Money Pickle
Welcome to your new week.
After a Friday afternoon filled with flash-crash panic, this is definitely a week in which you want to know what’s coming!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
A new earnings season kicks off with big banks, ASML, and TSMC reporting.
Monday (10/13): Fastenal
Tuesday (10/14): Albertsons, BCE, BlackRock, Citi, Domino’s, Ericsson, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo
Wednesday (10/15): Abbott, ASML, Bank of America, Dollar Tree, Morgan Stanley, Pinnacle Financial, Progressive, Synovus, United Airlines
Thursday (10/16): BNY Mellon, Charles Schwab, Infosys, KeyBank, Marsh McLennan, Travelers, TSMC
Friday (10/17): Ally, American Express, Fifth Third Bank, Huntington, Regions, Schlumberger, State Street, Truist
What We’re Watching:
ASML (ASML)
Source: ASML Investor Deck
ASML (+17.8% YTD) reports Q3 FY2025 earnings Wednesday after the close, with investors watching whether momentum in chip-equipment demand can withstand mounting geopolitical and trade headwinds. The company remains central to the semiconductor supply chain — its advanced EUV lithography tools power next-gen chips for customers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung — but heightened U.S.–China export restrictions and new tariffs have introduced fresh uncertainty for 2026.
In Q2, ASML posted €7.7 billion in net sales, 53.7% gross margins, and €2.3 billion in net income, all near the upper end of guidance. System bookings totaled €5.5 billion, leaving the backlog at roughly €33 billion — a sign of resilient demand across both leading-edge and mature-node segments. Services revenue from Installed Base Management reached €2.1 billion, underscoring stable recurring cash flow. The company also returned €1.4 billion to shareholders through buybacks and declared a €1.60 per-share dividend.
Heading into this quarter, I’ll be watching how ASML balances strong AI-driven demand with its cautious tone on 2026 growth. Key areas include visibility on high-NA EUV ramp-ups, supply-chain normalization, and any shifts in regional order mix tied to export controls.
“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong. At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”
ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
JPMorgan Chase (+12.4% YTD) reports Q3 FY2025 earnings Tuesday before the open, with investors watching how the nation’s largest bank manages margin compression and credit risk amid shifting rate expectations. The focus will be on net interest income, trading and investment banking strength, and whether management offers clearer guidance on loan growth and credit quality as the Fed edges toward rate cuts.
In Q2, JPMorgan posted $45.7 billion in revenue and $5.24 in adjusted EPS, supported by investment banking income and stable consumer credit. Net interest income held near record highs, though deposit competition and rising funding costs have begun to pressure spreads. Trading revenue rebounded sharply in fixed income, while dealmaking fees showed early signs of recovery. The bank returned $3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, maintaining a strong CET1 ratio above 14%.
Heading into this print, I’ll be watching for signs of loan demand resilience, credit-loss provisioning trends, and commentary around capital return and expense discipline. Outlook on investment banking momentum and guidance for FY2026 will also be key as the macro backdrop softens.
“While the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, we are seeing pockets of weakness in consumer spending and credit trends that warrant caution. We’re staying disciplined on risk and focused on serving clients through whatever comes next.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Eyes on China tariff drama, NVIDIA’s OCP summit, and Oracle’s AI World event.
China Tariff Drama
Last week’s tariff threat shook markets, with President Trump announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting Nov. 1, sending the S&P 500 down 2.7% and the Nasdaq off 3.5%. But the tone has flipped heading into this week after Trump appeared to walk back his rhetoric on Truth Social, writing that “it will all be fine” and calling President Xi “highly respected.” The post fueled a rebound in futures and eased fears of an imminent trade rupture.
China’s rare-earth export curbs, new port fees on U.S. ships, and an antitrust probe into Qualcomm still underscore the fragility of the relationship, yet both sides appear to be testing leverage ahead of renewed talks. Trump suggested a meeting with Xi later this month remains “very possible,” raising hopes that a temporary truce or tariff rollback could emerge before the November 1 deadline.
“China’s export restrictions and Washington’s tariff threats are part of the same chess match – each side is testing how far it can push before the other flinches.”
Nvidia Event
Source: Fortune / Chesnot - Getty Images
Nvidia is set to take center stage at the Open Compute Project (OCP) Global Summit 2025, unveiling its latest breakthroughs in accelerated computing, AI infrastructure, networking, and energy-efficient data center design.
The company is expected to showcase new technologies powering AI workloads at hyperscale, with an emphasis on sustainability and security — key themes as global data center demand surges. Nvidia’s announcements will likely highlight advancements tied to its Blackwell platform, NVLink, and networking stack aimed at optimizing compute performance per watt.
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Stock Performance, 1-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Nvidia isn’t just building chips. It’s building a whole ecosystem. 50+ AI startup investments this year alone. From LLMs to robotics to infrastructure — Nvidia isn’t sprinkling capital, it’s constructing an empire.”
Oracle AI World
Oracle is set to host its flagship conference, now rebranded as Oracle AI World, highlighting the company’s expanding focus on artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise applications. The event will feature keynotes from CTO Larry Ellison and other executives detailing Oracle’s approach to integrating AI copilots, autonomous databases, and industry-specific AI tools across its cloud ecosystem.
Investors and enterprise clients will be watching closely for updates on AI partnerships, cloud customer growth, and generative AI integration within Oracle Fusion and NetSuite products. The event underscores Oracle’s ambition to position itself as a full-stack AI and cloud provider, competing head-on with hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Stock Performance, 1-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“The software maker is hosting a four-day AI World conference starting Monday in Las Vegas, where much of the focus will be on Oracle’s cloud computing business, whose rapid expansion has fueled a 76% run-up in the stock that has made it one of 2025’s best performers in the S&P 500. The event comes just as concerns are building that Oracle is sacrificing profitability for growth from renting computing power to AI companies like OpenAI.”
Major Economic Events:
Producer price index, retail sales and fed speakers highlight the week.
Monday (10/13): Columbus Day Holiday, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson Speaks
Tuesday (10/14): Boston Fed President Susan Collins Speaks, Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks, NFIB Optimism Index
Wednesday (10/15): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Fed Beige Book, Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks, Fed Governor Stephen Miran Speaks
Thursday (10/16): Business Inventories, Core PPI, Core PPI (Year over Year), Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks, Fed Governor Stephen Miran Speaks, Home Builder Confidence Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, PPI, PPI (Year over Year), Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, Retail Sales Minus Autos, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks, U.S. Retail Sales
Friday (10/17): Building Permits, Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts, Import Price Index, Import Price Index Minus Fuel, Industrial Production
What We’re Watching:
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.1% in August, marking the first monthly decline in four months and defying expectations for a +0.3% increase. The drop followed a downwardly revised +0.7% gain in July.
The pullback was driven by a 0.2% drop in services prices, the sharpest since April, led by a 3.9% slide in machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins. Declines were also seen in chemical, furniture, and food retailing categories. Goods prices edged +0.1% higher, supported by a 2.3% jump in tobacco products and gains in beef, poultry, and electric power.
Economists expect the following this week:
Headline PPI (MoM): -0.1% vs. +0.7% prior
Headline PPI (YoY): +2.6% vs. +3.1% prior
“Inflation barely has a heartbeat at the producer level which shows the tariff effect is not boosting across-the-board price pressures yet. As time goes on, one has to wonder if there are slow-growth reasons and weak economic demand that is keeping inflation in check. There is almost nothing to stop an interest rate cut from coming now."
Retail Sales
Retail sales rose +0.6% MoM in August, matching July’s upwardly revised gain and topping expectations for +0.2%, signaling resilient consumer spending despite high prices and softer sentiment.
The strength was broad-based, led by nonstore retailers (+2.0%), clothing (+1.0%), and sporting goods & hobbies (+0.8%). Spending also increased at restaurants & bars (+0.7%), gas stations (+0.5%), and auto dealers (+0.5%).
Declines were seen in miscellaneous retailers (-1.1%), furniture (-0.3%), and general merchandise (-0.1%). Importantly, core retail sales – which exclude autos, gas, food services, and building materials – rose +0.7%, beating forecasts and reinforcing expectations for solid Q3 GDP growth.
Economists expect the following this week:
Headline Retail Sales (MoM): +0.6% vs. +0.2% expected
Core Retail Sales (MoM): +0.7% vs. +0.4% expected
"The American consumer appears to be in good spirits. That's good news for the economy, but it may heighten debate over how aggressively the Fed needs to cut rates.”
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Cover Image Source: Fortune / Chesnot - Getty Images
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