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Welcome to your new week.
Q4 is now well underway and the end-of-year push has begun for companies of all sizes. Get ready for a very hectic few months ahead!
Now more than ever — we encourage you to tune into our weekly previews, weekly recaps, and stock deep-dives.
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Let’s dive in!
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Key Earnings Announcements:
Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines, Levi’s, and PepsiCo are the major companies reporting this week.
Monday (10/6): Constellation Brands
Tuesday (10/7): McCormick’s
Wednesday (10/8): Bassett
Thursday (10/9): Delta, Levi’s, PepsiCo
Friday (10/10): N/A
What We’re Watching:
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Delta (-5.3% YTD) reports Q3 FY2025 earnings Thursday before the open, with investors zeroing in on how resilient its diversified revenue streams remain amid a softening macro backdrop. The company recently restored full-year guidance, setting EPS in the $5.25–$6.25 range and projecting free cash flow of $3–$4 billion.
In Q2, Delta delivered strong margins: adjusted operating margin of ~13.2 %, $700 million in free cash flow, and marked gains on equity investments tied to international partner holdings. Premium and loyalty revenue growth (+5–8% YoY), cargo and MRO expansion, and international network recovery were key strengths.
I’ll be watching for Delta’s ability to sustain non-fuel unit cost discipline, the balance between premium and main cabin revenue, and how loyalty and ancillary lines like cargo and MRO are trending. Updates to guidance, booking trends, and capital allocation — including debt pay down versus shareholder returns — will also be key focus areas.
“...very encouraged about all the signs we're seeing that the industry is moving – continuing to move in the right direction. Capacity rationalization domestically has occurred, and we see trends improving as we head out of the summer.”
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
PepsiCo (PEP)
Source: Elliot’s Perspective on PepsiCo
PepsiCo (-6.6% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings Tuesday after the bell, navigating a complex backdrop of margin pressure, consumer trends, and activist scrutiny. Investors will be watching closely as Elliott Investment Management recently disclosed a ~$4 billion stake and is pushing for bold operational changes — citing that PepsiCo is “deeply undervalued” and calling for a bottling spin-off and sharper execution.
Source: Elliot’s Perspective on PepsiCo
Coming off a quarter where North America weighed on growth and margins, Pepsi is under pressure to show a path toward reacceleration. Key themes to monitor include cost discipline in beverages and snacks, margin expansion in its struggling U.S. segment, and management’s response to Elliott’s proposals around portfolio rationalization, refranchising bottlers, and capital allocation. On valuation, DCF models suggest PepsiCo may be trading at a ~20% discount to intrinsic value, offering room for upside if execution improves.
I’ll also be watching for any commentary about structural changes (especially Elliott’s mandates), whether management offers a clearer turnaround roadmap, and the tone around reinvestment versus returns to shareholders.
“Despite its strengths, [PepsiCo North America] has underperformed its peers for more than a decade on both growth and margins. This long-term underperformance stems from several related strategic missteps, including self-inflicted share losses in soda, an underperforming vertically integrated bottling structure and a proliferation of new brands and SKUs that has strained focus and execution.”
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Amazon Prime Big Deal Days return, Bitcoin all-time highs, Kalshi predicts a long government shutdown, and AMD stock skyrocketed Monday morning due to OpenAI looking to take a huge stake in the company.
Amazon Prime Big Deal Days
The holiday shopping push officially kicks off with Amazon’s two-day Prime Deal Day, as major retailers like Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Nordstrom, and Kohl’s launch counter-promotions in lockstep. This sets the stage for an early battleground in consumer engagement and gives investors a first major read on discretionary spending trends heading into Q4.
The more often that Amazon does Big Deal Days, the more that analysts try to determine if they are “overdoing it” by no longer making Amazon Prime Day a once-yearly event. We’re eager to see how effective this round of Prime deals are for the company.
Amazon, Inc. (AMZN) Stock Performance, YTD Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Amazon's best and top-selling deals during Prime Day are on its own devices, including Fire tablets, Echo speakers, Fire TVs, Ring Doorbells, Fire TV Sticks, and Blink security cameras. While you'll typically find the best prices at Amazon's official sale, the retailer has gone rogue by offering record-low prices right now.”
Bitcoin Crosses $125,000
Bitcoin (+32.7% YTD) surged past $125,000 for the first time on Sunday, touching $125,598 and notching its seventh gain in eight sessions. The rally has been fueled by large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, renewed institutional participation, and a weaker U.S. dollar amid the ongoing government shutdown.
Optimism around favorable U.S. regulatory progress and growing mainstream adoption has added to bullish sentiment. I’ll be watching for this momentum to continue this week — believing that we have higher to go before any substantial pullback.
“Bitcoin’s latest rally reflects structural strength — sustained ETF inflows and shifting macro dynamics are powering momentum that could push prices toward $135,000 or beyond.”
Kalshi Predicts Long Government Shutdown
Prediction market Kalshi now sees the shutdown lasting around 21 days, which would tie it for the second-longest in U.S. history. The odds of it stretching beyond 20 days have climbed to 50%, while Polymarket places a 23% chance on it exceeding 30 days.
Despite the gridlock, Wall Street has largely shrugged it off — the S&P 500 hit a record 6,700 last week — as investors focus on resilient earnings and rate-cut expectations. The last major shutdown in 2018-19 lasted 35 days and cost the U.S. economy roughly $11 billion, according to the CBO.
“Should the government shutdown be prolonged and delay the release of governmental labor market data, it will be hard for Federal Reserve officials to say conditions have improved since the September FOMC meeting”
OpenAI Looks to Take Large Stake in AMD, Stock Skyrocketed
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, and Lisa Su, CEO of Advanced Micro Devices, at a Senate committee hearing in May. Sources: Nathan Howard / Bloomberg News
Quick shoutout to everyone who bought AMD alongside me in their own portfolios around the $100 / share range earlier this year. We’re up, baby!
Before this announcement, AMD was the fourth largest position in my portfolio — now it’s the second largest. Cheers!
OpenAI and AMD announced a multibillion-dollar, five-year partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD’s new MI450 chips in AI data centers, directly challenging Nvidia’s dominance. The deal could generate tens of billions in revenue for AMD and includes warrants giving OpenAI the right to acquire up to 10% of AMD at 1 cent per share if key milestones are met. AMD’s stock soared more than 35% following the announcement, marking a major validation of its AI chip ambitions.
OpenAI will use the chips for inference tasks — running AI models like ChatGPT — and plans to begin deployment in late 2026. The partnership comes amid OpenAI’s aggressive spending spree, including massive deals with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle, totaling hundreds of billions to secure AI computing power. Analysts say the wave of trillion-dollar infrastructure commitments underscores both the explosive demand for AI and growing concerns of an industry bubble.
“It’s hard to overstate how difficult it’s become to get enough computing power. We want it super fast, but it takes some time.”
Major Economic Events:
Fed Speakers, Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, and U.S. government Budget highlight the week.
Source: AP Photo / Julia Demaree Nikhinson
Monday (10/6): Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid Speaks
Tuesday (10/7): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks, Consumer Credit, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran Speaks, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran Speaks (Afternoon), Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman Welcoming Remarks, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Speaks, U.S. Trade Deficit
Wednesday (10/8): Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speaks, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr Speaks, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr Speaks (Evening), Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Speaks, Minutes of Fed’s September FOMC Meeting, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem Opening Remarks
Thursday (10/9): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Opening Remarks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman Speaks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman Welcoming Remarks, Initial Jobless Claims, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Michael Barr Discussion, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speaks (Afternoon), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speaks (Evening), Wholesale Inventories
Friday (10/10): Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Opening Remarks, Consumer Sentiment (Prelim), Monthly U.S. Federal Budget
*Data subject to delay if government shutdown continues.
What We’re Watching:
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised slightly lower to 55.1 in September, down from 58.2 in August – the second straight monthly decline and the weakest reading since May.
Both key components fell: the Expectations Index eased to 51.7 (from 51.8) and the Current Conditions Index slipped to 60.4 (from 61.2). Inflation expectations moderated, with 1-year outlooks at 4.7% (vs. 4.8%) and 5-year expectations at 3.7% (vs. 3.9%).
Sentiment dropped across nearly all demographic and political groups, reflecting concerns over high prices, a cooling labor market, and weaker personal finances. The only bright spots: steady optimism among higher-income stockholders and improved sentiment among Democrats.
Economists expect the following this week:
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final): 55.1 vs. 58.2 prior
Inflation Expectations (1-Year): 4.7% vs. 4.8% prior
Inflation Expectations (5-Year): 3.7% vs. 3.9% prior
“Consumers are clearly growing more cautious – they see slower income growth and fewer job opportunities ahead.”
U.S. Government Budget
The U.S. government posted a $345B budget deficit in August 2025, down 9% from a year earlier, according to the Treasury Department. The improvement was fueled by a surge in customs receipts (+$22.5B) stemming from new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which lifted total receipts to $344B (+12%).
Meanwhile, outlays rose slightly to a record $689B, keeping overall fiscal pressures elevated. Net customs receipts hit a record $29.5B, up from just $7B last year, underscoring the near-term revenue boost from tariffs.
Despite August’s improvement, the YTD deficit widened by $76B (+4%) to $1.97T, highlighting continued fiscal strain from high spending and interest costs.
Economists expect the following this week:
Federal Budget Deficit (Aug): -$345B vs. -$376B the year prior
Year-to-Date Deficit: -$1.97T vs. -$1.89T a year earlier
“Although budget confrontations are common in US politics, this spending fight is especially tense because President Donald Trump has drastically reduced the size of the national government since taking office, and has suggested he may use the current impasse to make further cuts.”
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