👉 Oracle and Adobe Report Hours Apart

Together with Alumni Ventures

Welcome to your new week.

Markets were closed Monday for Labor Day, so the real week starts Tuesday and runs straight into the last clean inflation prints before the September Fed, with Oracle and Adobe reporting the same night in between.

Key Earnings Announcements:

A short week, but Thursday night Adobe & Oracle report.

Tuesday (9/8): ABM Industries, Braze, Canaan, Casey's General Stores, Mission Produce, ServiceTitan, United Natural Foods

Wednesday (9/9): Academy Sports and Outdoors, AeroVironment, American Eagle Outfitters, Caleres, Chewy, CooperCompanies, Core & Main, Korn Ferry, Navan, SailPoint, Signet Jewelers

Thursday (9/10): 1-800-Flowers, Adobe, Copart, Descartes Systems, Designer Brands, Lovesac, Macy's, Oracle, RH, Zumiez

Friday (9/11): Hooker Furnishings, Kroger, MoneyHero

Co-Invest With Firms Like a16z, Bessemer & Y Combinator in Vetted Startups

Rate of Return and Alumni Ventures are giving readers early access to high-potential startup opportunities across today's most active sectors — co-investing alongside firms like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Bessemer, and Y Combinator.

You get:

• Curated deal flow of high-potential startups

• Co-investment alongside name-brand venture firms

• No cost to view deals

• No obligation to invest

What We’re Watching:

1. Adobe (ADBE)

Adobe (-23.8% YTD) reports fiscal Q3 earnings Thursday after the close, and the setup is unusually cheap for a company still growing double digits. Shares closed Friday at $266.51 after falling 6.7% in a single session, leaving the stock at roughly 15 times earnings and 28% below its 52-week high. Management has deliberately traded near-term subscriber growth for a freemium land grab. This print decides whether investors treat that as a strategy or as an excuse.

Last quarter, Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion, up 13% year over year. Total ending annual recurring revenue reached $27.1 billion, AI-first ARR crossed $500 million at three times the prior year, and Firefly ARR approached $300 million after growing roughly 50% sequentially. The stock still fell 6.8% the next day.

This quarter, the focus will be on revenue against the $6.70 guide, and whether the freemium push is diluting individual-subscriber ARR faster than AI products can replace it. Investors will also get their first earnings commentary since Adobe named Anil Chakravarthy its next CEO, with the permanent CFO seat still open. A clean beat with intact ARR guidance and evidence that Firefly is monetizing could set up one of the cleaner re-rating opportunities in software. Another in-line quarter with softer individual-subscriber ARR keeps the discount exactly where it is. 

• Analysts expect $4.48 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $6.70 billion.

• You can explore the most recent ADBE investor release here and here.

2. Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle (-18.9% YTD) reports fiscal Q1 earnings Thursday after the close, and no print this week matters more to the AI trade. Shares closed Friday at $158.78, roughly 54% below their 52-week high of $345.72, with options implying a move of nearly 12% either way. The backlog is no longer the debate. What the market wants to know is whether Oracle can convert it into revenue fast enough to justify — and fund — one of the largest AI infrastructure buildouts in the market.

Last quarter, Oracle delivered $19.18 billion in revenue — an $89 billion beat. In addition, remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion — up 363% year over year. It signed $67 billion of AI infrastructure contracts during the quarter and delivered more than 1.2 gigawatts of capacity across the fiscal year. The stock still fell 8.5% the next day.

This quarter, I’ll be watching cloud revenue and how quickly that $638 billion backlog is converting as new capacity comes online. Free cash flow remains the pressure point: Oracle generated negative $23.7 billion in FY26 and now expects roughly $70 billion of net cash capital spending in FY27, alongside approximately $40 billion of new debt and equity financing. A beat with strong backlog conversion and evidence that infrastructure margins are improving could restart the re-rating. A beat that comes with an even wider cash deficit probably does not.

• Analysts expect $1.30 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $19.13 billion.

• You can explore the most recent ORCL investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Apple puts a foldable onstage, Goldman gathers the AI trade in San Francisco, and the NFL season kicks off.

• Apple Puts a Foldable Onstage

Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, Apple takes the stage at the Steve Jobs Theater for an event it is calling "Surprise and Shine." The expected lineup runs to the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, the Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4, an overhauled large-language-model Siri, and the company's first foldable iPhone. Pre-orders are expected Saturday, September 12, with retail availability the following Friday.

The foldable is the financial story. Reports point to a device priced above $2,000, roughly a 5.5-inch outer and 7.8-inch inner display, a liquid-metal hinge, and a return to Touch ID. That resets the average selling price at the top of the lineup while pushing the standard iPhone 18 to spring 2027, effectively splitting the launch calendar in two. Watch the pricing and the ship dates more closely than the hardware demos, because both flow straight into December-quarter guidance.

There is a second layer worth noting. This is the first keynote with John Ternus running the show as chief executive, five months after taking the job from Tim Cook, and the first real look at how he wants to position the company's most expensive product ever.

• Goldman Gathers the AI Trade in San Francisco

Goldman Sachs runs its Communacopia + Technology Conference in San Francisco from Tuesday through Friday, and the speaker list reads like a roll call of the names driving this tape. AT&T chief executive John Stankey appears Wednesday at 4:05 p.m. ET, Salesforce sends president Bill Patterson and Slack general manager Rob Seaman the same afternoon, Autodesk follows Wednesday evening, and KLA closes the week on Friday.

The timing is what makes it matter. These are unscripted fireside chats rather than rehearsed earnings calls, and they land in the same four days as Oracle and Adobe results. If enterprise software demand is softening, or if AI spending is finally converting into revenue instead of capital expenditure, an executive is likely to say so offhand in a San Francisco ballroom before any company puts it in a press release. Listen for guidance-adjacent language on cloud consumption, seat growth, and 2027 budget planning.

• The NFL Season Kicks Off

The NFL season kicks off Wednesday at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock with a rare midweek opener and a Super Bowl LX rematch, as the defending champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots they beat 29-13 in February. For investors, the public-market exposure spans the betting, data, and media stack. Flutter Entertainment, owner of FanDuel, and DraftKings sit closest to wagering activity, while Genius Sports remains the NFL’s exclusive distributor of official betting and live-game data through the 2029 season. Amazon, Disney, Fox, Comcast, Paramount Skydance, Alphabet, and Netflix all have exposure through the league’s sprawling media package.

But the more interesting story this season is where the betting dollars are going. The American Gaming Association estimates $29.5 billion will be wagered through regulated U.S. sportsbooks, essentially flat from $29.4 billion last season and the first year without meaningful growth since legalization began scaling nationally. At the same time, prediction markets are taking an increasingly large share of sports activity. That raises the stakes on customer acquisition: Penn Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden has already warned of a “very aggressive, irrational” promotional environment this football season. For DraftKings and Flutter, the key question may be less about how much is wagered and more about how much they have to spend to win and retain those bets. If promotions rise while betting growth stays flat, margins could come under pressure.

Major Economic Events:

Thursday PPI and Friday CPI

Tuesday (9/8): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August, ADP employment change, consumer credit for July, China August trade balance

Wednesday (9/9): MBA mortgage applications, EIA petroleum status report, ECB Governing Council meeting begins in Berlin

Thursday (9/10): August PPI and core PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, initial jobless claims, continuing claims, ECB rate decision and Lagarde press conference, EIA natural gas storage

Friday (9/11): August CPI and core CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for September

What We’re Watching:

1. August CPI

Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August Consumer Price Index, the last inflation reading the Federal Reserve sees before its September 15-16 meeting. Consensus expects the annual rate to hold at 3.4%. July marked a third straight month of cooling, down from 4.2% in May, with core at 2.5%. The Fed's blackout period began Saturday, September 5, so this number lands with no official commentary to frame it.

The math changed on Friday. August payrolls came in at 162,000 against expectations near 55,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and traders now put the odds of a September rate hike at roughly 60%. That makes CPI the tiebreaker rather than a footnote. A soft core reading keeps a hold alive. A hot one, particularly with oil pushing the headline, makes a hike the base case.

Watch core month over month, services excluding shelter, and how much of the headline is energy. Governor Christopher Waller said last week he would be inclined to hold if disinflation continued through the next two weeks, which effectively turned this print into his condition. Equities want cool and bonds need cool, and the blackout means Friday's number walks into the meeting unmediated.

Economists expect the following:

• Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY expected vs. 3.4% prior

• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY prior, with July core up 0.2% MoM

2. August PPI

Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the August Producer Price Index, and consensus points the wrong way. Final-demand producer prices rose 4.7% over the year through July, down from 5.5% in June and 5.9% in May, but economists now expect the annual rate to jump back to 5.3%. Producer prices arrive 24 hours before CPI and usually set the tone for it.

Energy is the reason. Brent traded near $97 a barrel Monday, diesel has moved above $5.90 a gallon, and OPEC+ left October quotas unchanged rather than add supply. Pipeline costs reach consumer prices with a lag, so a hot PPI raises the risk that Friday's CPI is only the first of several uncomfortable prints and that the disinflation trend of the past three months was mostly borrowed time.

Watch core PPI, which rose 0.2% in July, along with trade services margins and the transportation and warehousing components that diesel runs through. A soft print gives the market permission to fade hike odds ahead of CPI. A print at or above 5.3% does the opposite, and it would make an unchanged 3.4% headline on Friday look considerably less reassuring than it reads on paper.

Economists expect the following:

• PPI: 5.3% YoY expected vs. 4.7% prior

• Core PPI: 0.2% MoM prior

Don’t follow us on social yet? Follow us on Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter.

Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.

Cover Image Source: Bloomberg | Getty Images

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.

The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.

Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

By using the Site or any related social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.

Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy

If you have any questions please contact us at [email protected]