👉 Portfolio Updates After a Historic Week

Together with Betterment

Happy Masters Sunday.

Make Your Money Hustle

TAX TIP: You have until April 15 to contribute to and max out an IRA for 2024. And you might even be able to deduct those contributions on your 2024 tax return.

Portfolio Updates (YTD Performance):

Quick callout — the portfolio tracker is 100% up to date. If you’ve not taken a chance to dig around that lately, I highly recommend doing so! Before we jump into our regularly scheduled programming, I wanted to discuss a few changes.

1) I exited the ETHA position for a -$45K loss and took the $30K in proceeds and immediately reinvested them into Ethereum directly (not through an ETF). I wanted to harvest these short-term capital losses for tax purposes. For further clarification, I took every single penny and reinvested it back into the Ethereum cryptocurrency.

I’m still invested. I’m still very much bullish over the coming 9-18 months. Below is a screenshot of the position inside of Robinhood. By doing this, I’ll save ~$13,000 in taxes next year. No brainer for me to make this trade and harvest the loss.

2) I’m deploying ~$30K into the Dividend Growth Stocks portfolio during April.

2025 has been a personal finance nightmare as my taxes for 2024 have been very unpredictable due to a handful of events. In response to this, I was setting aside tens of thousands of dollars of “reserves” throughout 2025 to ensure I could afford my 2024 tax bill. Luckily, it came in roughly $30K lower than the reserves I set aside, which means that money will be deployed toward this portfolio over the coming weeks. I’ll deploy this capital as cash to start, then slowly invest the funds into specific positions.

3) A few weeks ago, as shared in this post, I added to my SCHD, VICI, PYPL, V, CELH, KO, BABA, BIDU, O, BRK.B, and MA positions.

4) Last week, during the market turmoil, I added to my GOOGL, TSLA, NVDA, VOO, and AMZN positions. Roughly $250 to each name, with Amazon to exception at $500.

My money-weighted YTD rate of return, according to M1 Finance, is -8.2%. Funny enough, that’s exactly what the S&P 500 has done throughout the same period of time (as shown above). 

Now to spend some time looking toward the coming weeks — with the S&P 500 down -13% from recent highs and -9% YTD, total positioning (hedge funds, international investors, institutions, etc.) is near 15 year lows. Positioning could still drift lower — bringing us further into the red — and / or stay extremely light for a prolonged period of time. But with that being said, I’m not overly bearish right now. 

Earlier this week, the VIX experienced one of the greatest single-day drops in history — declining -37% after Trump announced the 90-day pause on tariffs. History tells us this is a very good thing for the markets over the coming 12-months.

The biggest thing to consider over the coming weeks is earnings risk. As you all know, earnings season is officially upon us — so what happens when all of these companies’ management teams retract / cut their guidance for 2025 given macro / policy uncertainty? The stock market doesn’t like uncertainty, and the coming weeks will be an opportunity for us to see just how uncertain these companies are about their near-term futures under a Trump Administration. 

With that being said, I’m not so sure the “bottom” of this market cycle is in. However, I have a hunch we’re rally for a few weeks with tariffs paused and “special” tariffs to be announced for electronic devices and pharmaceuticals. 

Additionally, Bitcoin is rallying. I continue to believe we’ll see $100-120K in the coming months. At that time, I plan to exit 90% of my position and re-allocate to other areas of the market. I continue to believe Ethereum will hit new all-time highs in the coming 9-18 months. Once excited, I’ll also re-allocate those funds toward undervalued areas of the market. 

Week in Review —TLDR:

Delta Air Lines pulls their guidance, JPMorgan Chase increased their dividend by +12%, BlackRock reports highest organic growth since 2021, one of the craziest weeks in the history of the stock market, an update on the U.S. / China trade war, highlighting Apple’s position in all of this mess, Inflation for Consumers & Inflation for Producers are both retreating, and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment is approaching record lows.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Delta Air Lines pulls their guidance, JPMorgan Chase increased their dividend by +12%, and BlackRock reports highest organic growth since 2021.

• Delta Airlines (DAL):

Key Metrics

Revenue: $14.0 billion, an increase of +2% YoY

Operating Income: $569.0 million, compared to $614.0 million last year

Profits: $240.0 million, an increase of +548% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“While the first quarter unfolded differently than initially expected, we delivered solid profitability that was flat to prior year and is expected to lead the industry. With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled. In this slower-growth environment, we are protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what we can control. This includes reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat over last year while actively managing costs and capital expenditures.

We expect June quarter profitability of $1.5 to $2 billion. Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook. Given our position of strength, our bias toward action and the decline in fuel prices, Delta remains well positioned to deliver solid profitability and free cash flow for the year.”

My Takeaway

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM):

Key Metrics

Revenue: $46.0 billion, an increase of +8% YoY

Profits: $14.6 billion, an increase of +9% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“The Firm reported strong underlying business and financial results in the first quarter, producing net income of $14.6 billion. In the CIB, Investment Banking fees rose 12% in the first quarter, although clients have become more cautious amid an increase in market volatility driven by geopolitical and trade-related tensions. This quarter, we repurchased $7 billion of common stock and announced a 12% increase in the common dividend. The increase in capital return was supported by our strong earnings generation and elevated capital levels.”

My Takeaway

• BlackRock (BLK):

Key Metrics

Revenue: $5.3 billion, an increase of +12% YoY

Operating Income: $1.7 billion, flat YoY

Profits: $1.5 billion, compared to $1.6 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

“BlackRock’s positioning and connectivity with clients are stronger than ever, and it’s clear in our results. We delivered 6% organic base fee growth in the first quarter, representing our best start to a year since 2021 and secular strength against a complex market backdrop. We are helping clients navigate market and policy changes, while also providing insights on long-term structural growth opportunities.”

My Takeaway

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

One of the craziest weeks in the history of the stock market, an update on the U.S. / China trade war, and highlighting Apple’s position in all of this mess.

• Stock Volume Hit Record Highs During Best Rally Since 2008

One of the most chaotic weeks in recent market history ended with a surprising rebound, as all three major U.S. stock indexes rose more than +5% — despite dramatic swings in stocks, bonds, and the dollar. The volatility was triggered by President Trump’s announcement of unexpectedly steep tariffs, which shocked investors and led to a four-day selloff across global markets. Midweek, markets staged a historic comeback after Trump paused some of the tariffs and signaled openness to trade negotiations, prompting a record-setting rally on Wednesday — the Nasdaq rose over +12%, the S&P 500 jumped +9.5%, and the Dow surged +7.9%.

Before all of this took place, Trump even posted that it was a “great time to buy” on Truth Social…

Traders described the experience as exhausting and chaotic, with rapid shifts making it difficult to price investments and leaving many bracing for further turmoil. Thursday quickly reversed some of those gains after Trump renewed his tough stance on China, reminding investors the trade war was far from resolved. Meanwhile, Treasury yields spiked, with the 10-year posting its biggest weekly rise since 2001 and the 30-year seeing its sharpest jump since 1987 — raising alarms about the federal deficit and reliance on foreign buyers.

The dollar tumbled, gold hit a record high above $3,200 an ounce, and commodities like oil and copper swung wildly, reflecting deep uncertainty in the global economy. Despite strong earnings from major banks helping to stabilize Friday’s market, many investors remain skeptical — viewing the week’s wild moves as signs of deeper fragility ahead.

• Update on U.S. / China Tensions

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified that the recent tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers, and other electronics are only temporary, as these products will soon be included in a new semiconductor-specific tariff. The move is part of President Trump’s broader strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing and encourage reshoring critical industries. Lutnick stated that semiconductor tariffs are expected within a month or two, with formal notice coming soon, and emphasized these new levies will likely replace the current 125% tariffs on Chinese electronics.

While the exemptions gave companies like Apple short-term relief, they are not a sign of lasting trade de-escalation (more on this below). China welcomed the exemptions but continued to push the U.S. to fully abandon reciprocal tariffs and return to mutual dialogue. Trump hinted at further tariff announcements coming Monday — as the administration finalizes sector-specific duties that may prove more enduring than the broader country-based tariffs.

• Apple’s (AAPL) Current Situation with China

Apple narrowly avoided major financial damage from steep new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods after receiving a last-minute exemption for iPhones and other electronics. The company still faces serious risk due to its deep reliance on China, where it helped build a vast supply chain involving over a million workers and more than 1,000 suppliers. While Apple has started shifting some production to countries like India and Vietnam, experts say it would take years to meaningfully reduce dependence on China.

Manufacturing iPhones in the U.S. would be extremely costly and difficult, with some estimates suggesting prices could reach $3,500 per device. Apple CEO Tim Cook has protected the company’s position through savvy political navigation and investments in China, but long-term tensions between the U.S. and China threaten this balance. Despite its efforts to diversify, Apple remains tightly bound to the Chinese economy it helped shape — making it vulnerable in any prolonged trade conflict.

Major Economic Events:

Inflation for Consumers & Inflation for Producers are both retreating, while the U.S. Consumer Sentiment approaches record lows.

• Inflation for Consumers (CPI)

Inflation eased in March as consumer prices fell -0.1% month-over-month, marking the first such decline in nearly five years, largely driven by a steep drop in gasoline prices. Year-over-year inflation slowed to +2.4%, lower than economists expected, with core inflation also cooling to +2.8%, the smallest gain since March 2021. Travel-related costs like hotel stays, airline fares, and gas all fell, reflecting growing consumer caution as many people opted to cancel or scale back travel plans. However, food prices continued to climb, with groceries and restaurant bills rising +0.4%, and egg prices spiking nearly +6% in March and +60% over the past year.

While the Federal Reserve welcomed the softer inflation data, economists caution that the full impact of new tariffs — announced in early April — has yet to be reflected in the numbers. These tariffs, along with ongoing economic uncertainty, have investors worried about renewed price pressures and slowing growth. Despite March’s positive CPI report, many expect inflation to rise again in the coming months — potentially complicating the Fed’s path forward.

• Inflation for Producers (PPI)

U.S. producer prices fell -0.4% in March, the steepest drop since October 2023, mainly due to a -4% decline in energy costs. Excluding food and energy, prices eased -0.1%, suggesting that businesses are absorbing the costs of early tariffs rather than passing them on to consumers. The report mirrors recent consumer inflation data, which also showed an unexpected decline, though economists expect inflation to pick up later this year as broader tariffs take effect.

Retailers and wholesalers saw squeezed margins in March, with services prices dropping -0.2%, the largest fall since July. Despite concerns about tariffs, falling commodity prices — such as oil, metals, and agricultural goods — could help moderate inflationary pressures in the near term. The data offers temporary relief, but the full inflationary impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff moves may become clearer in next month’s report.

• Consumer Sentiment Plummets

U.S. consumer sentiment plunged in early April to 50.8, the second-lowest level on record, as concerns about rising tariffs and inflation surged. The University of Michigan survey revealed that both short- and long-term inflation expectations jumped to their highest levels in decades, with consumers expecting prices to rise 6.7% in the next year and 4.4% over the next five to ten years. Anxiety about the job market also intensified, with more respondents fearing rising unemployment and personal job loss. High-income consumers, who have typically buoyed spending, became significantly more pessimistic — matching the sentiment of lower-income groups for the first time since 1980.

Despite recent data showing falling wholesale and consumer prices, many Americans remain deeply worried about their financial futures. The survey reflected broad political disillusionment, with sentiment among Democrats and Independents hitting record lows and Republicans not far behind.

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