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👉 Roller Coaster of War Updates
Carnival Cruises, Consumer Sentiment, De-escalation
Austin Hankwitz
23 Mar
Together with WisdomTree
Welcome to your new week.
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Let’s dive right in.
Position Portfolios for Structural Defense Growth
Geopolitical uncertainty is rising and global defense spending is accelerating alongside it. A multi-year modernization cycle is underway, reshaping the investment landscape beyond short-term headlines.
WisdomTree’s Defense Suite of ETFs provides targeted, globally diversified exposure to companies supporting today’s evolving security needs—from advanced technologies to next-generation defense systems.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Earnings reports officially move away from the spotlight this week, but some notable names like Carnival Corporation will be sharing their results.
Monday (3/23): AGI, BioLineRx, Lithium Argentina, WeRide
Tuesday (3/24): Braze, Core & Main, Sanara MedTech, AAR Corp
Wednesday (3/25): Beyond Meat, Chewy, Cintas, Enerpac Tool Group, Paychex
Thursday (3/26): Blink Charging, Lovesac, Lucid Group, Veritone
Friday (3/27): Carnival, Autolus, Oxford Industries, Argan
What We’re Watching:
Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Carnival Corporation (-21% YTD) reports Q1 FY2026 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether strong travel demand and pricing momentum can continue to offset elevated costs and a still-leveraged balance sheet.
Carnival has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the post-pandemic travel rebound, with record bookings, higher ticket prices, and strong onboard spending driving a sharp recovery in revenue. Last quarter, the company delivered solid results with improved occupancy and yield, alongside continued progress on deleveraging.
Heading into this print, we’ll be watching:
Booking trends and forward demand commentary
Ticket pricing and onboard spending (yield growth)
Fuel and operating cost pressures
Debt reduction and balance sheet progress
“Demand for our cruise brands remains incredibly strong, with customers prioritizing experiences.”
Carnival Corporation & plc. (CCL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
There’s been a 24-hour roller coaster of escalation and de-escalation regarding the Middle East, and the ShopTalk Conference kicks off in Las Vegas.
Middle East Escalation and Now De-escalation?
Sources: Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
President Donald Trump signaled a potential pivot toward de-escalation, saying the U.S. is “very intent on making a deal” with Iran and ordering a five-day pause on planned strikes targeting energy infrastructure. He described recent interactions as “productive,” suggesting a diplomatic off-ramp may be emerging after weeks of escalating conflict.
However, Iranian officials quickly pushed back, denying that any direct or indirect negotiations have taken place. This disconnect highlights how fragile the situation remains, with both sides sending mixed signals while tensions stay elevated. The Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply — remains largely disrupted, keeping pressure on global energy markets.
Markets reacted positively to the potential for diplomacy. Oil prices pulled back, the U.S. dollar weakened, and equity futures rallied as investors priced in a reduced risk of further escalation. The move underscores how sensitive markets are to headlines, with geopolitical developments now driving short-term price action.
The bigger picture is still uncertain. If talks materialize, it could ease inflation pressures tied to energy and stabilize global markets. But if negotiations fail or escalation resumes, oil and volatility could quickly spike again — making this one of the most important macro storylines to watch right now.
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
ShopTalk Spring 2026
The annual ShopTalk Conference kicks off in Las Vegas this week, bringing together executives across retail, e-commerce, and consumer brands to discuss the evolving landscape of digital commerce and customer engagement.
A keynote from Steve Huffman of Reddit will highlight the growing intersection of social platforms and commerce, while leadership teams from Wayfair, Stitch Fix, Pinterest, Gap Inc., Dutch Bros, and SharkNinja are also set to present.
Investors will be watching for commentary on consumer demand trends, digital advertising, AI-driven personalization, and e-commerce profitability, particularly as brands navigate a more selective and price-sensitive consumer environment.
“Retail leaders are looking for actionable insights and meaningful partnerships that will help them navigate new opportunities. With AI as the backdrop for everything happening in retail, we’ll look at AI driven developments as well as the opportunities for more human-centered experiences.
Those interested in the AI revolution can take advantage of a fresh new comprehensive program designed to help guide retail decision-makers by providing discussions, case studies and best practices in implementing AI initiatives.”
Major Economic Events:
Fedspeak, initial jobless claims and Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey highlight the week.
Monday (3/23): Construction spending
Tuesday (3/24): Fed Gov. Michael Barr speaks, S&P flash manufacturing PMI, S&P flash services PMI, U.S. productivity (revision)
Wednesday (3/25): Fed Gov. Stephen Miran speaks, Import price index, Import price index ex-fuel
Thursday (3/26): Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speaks, Fed Gov. Michael Barr speaks, Fed Gov. Stephen Miran speaks, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks, Initial jobless claims
Friday (3/27): Consumer sentiment (final)
What We’re Watching:
Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 in March, down from 56.6 in February and marking the lowest level in three months, as rising geopolitical tensions and higher gasoline prices pressured household confidence.
The decline was broad-based, with consumers across income levels, age groups, and political affiliations reporting weaker expectations for their personal finances, which dropped 7.5% nationwide. The deterioration follows the onset of the U.S.–Iran conflict, with energy costs emerging as the most immediate concern for consumers.
Inflation expectations showed a mixed picture. Year-ahead expectations held at 3.4%, snapping a six-month streak of declines, while long-term expectations edged down slightly to 3.2%.
Economists expect the following this week:
Consumer Sentiment: 55.5 vs. 56.6 prior
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.4% vs. 3.4% prior
5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.2% vs. 3.3% prior
“Consumers are clearly reacting to higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, which is weighing on confidence even as longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.”
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 205,000 in the second week of March, coming in well below expectations and signaling that layoffs remain subdued despite mixed signals from recent labor data.
Continuing claims edged up slightly to 1.86 million, but remain on a downward trend since late last year, suggesting that while hiring may be slowing, displaced workers are not facing a sharp deterioration in reemployment conditions.
The data contrasts with softer readings in recent payroll reports, reinforcing the view that the labor market is cooling gradually rather than weakening outright. Claims from federal employees – closely watched amid government shutdown concerns – rose modestly to 643.
Economists expect the following this week:
Initial Jobless Claims: 205K vs. 213K prior
Continuing Claims: 1.86M vs. 1.85M prior
“Layoffs remain historically low –the labor market is slowing, but not breaking.”
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Cover Image Source: Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
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