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Welcome to your new week.
If you didn’t catch our latest recap of the past week in the markets, click here.
Whether it’s a wide array of earnings report results, geopolitical tensions, AI news, energy developments, or anything in between — the market wants ANSWERS.
Let’s see what we should be focusing on this week.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Coca-Cola, Coinbase, Robinhood, Shopify, and much more.
Monday (2/9): Apollo Global Management, Cleveland-Cliffs, CNA Financial, Kyndryl, Onsemi, Opendoor, Sally Beauty, Steel Dynamics
Tuesday (2/10): AIG, Coca-Cola, CVS Health, Datadog, Ford Motor, Robinhood, Spotify, Upstart
Wednesday (2/11): Cisco Systems, Humana, HubSpot, Kraft Heinz, McDonald’s, Shopify, Unity Software
Thursday (2/12): Arista Networks, Coinbase, Crocs, DraftKings, Pinterest, Zoetis
Friday (2/13): Advance Auto Parts, Applied Materials, Cameco, Enbridge, Moderna, Rivian, Wendy’s
What We’re Watching:
Coca-Cola (KO)
Source: Valuesense.io
The Coca‑Cola Company (+13.5% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether pricing power, mix shifts, and global volume trends can sustain both top-line growth and margin expansion in a slowing consumer backdrop. Coca-Cola sits at the intersection of consumer staples resilience and discretionary spending pressures, making its results an important barometer for broader consumer trends heading into 2026.
Last quarter, Coca-Cola delivered $11.8 billion in revenue (+6% YoY) and $0.73 in EPS (+8% YoY), topping expectations as price increases and a favorable product mix offset volume softness in some markets. Emerging markets continued to post solid gains, while North America benefited from strength in sparkling beverages and premium mixers.
As the company reports Q4 results, I’ll be watching global unit case trends, how the company balances pricing versus volume, and whether cost efficiencies can offset input inflation. Guidance for 2026, especially around marketing spend, supply-chain priorities, and currency impacts, will also be key sentiment drivers.
“Our portfolio’s breadth and balance give us confidence to grow, even in varied consumer environments.”
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Robinhood (HOOD)
Robinhood Markets (-26.7% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors watching whether the retail brokerage can sustain engagement and monetization in a challenging trading environment. Robinhood remains a leading platform for individual investors, but slower retail activity and competitive pressures – including fee compression and new entrants — have made consistency in revenue and profitability key focus areas.
Last quarter, Robinhood delivered $707 million in revenue (+2% YoY) and $0.08 in adjusted EPS, slightly ahead of expectations as options trading and crypto revenues helped offset a pullback in equities and cash-interest income. Active user metrics and engagement trends were stable but lacked a clear acceleration signal, leaving questions around the sustainability of growth.
Heading into this release, I’ll be watching active users, engagement rates, and net new funded accounts, as well as trends in crypto and options volumes – two areas that have historically driven episodic upside. Commentary on expense discipline, reinvestment strategies, and guidance for 2026 will also be critical for sentiment, especially as Robinhood looks to broaden revenue streams beyond core brokerage.
“We’re focused on deepening engagement, diversifying revenue, and driving sustainable profitability as markets evolve.”
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
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Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Eyes on the U.S. dollar, online sports betting companies recap their Super Bowl performances, and Sam Altman provides reassurance on OpenAI’s reach.
Eyes on Dollar
Source: ABC News
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as investors reassess America’s global role, trade policy, and the future path of monetary easing. Nearly a year after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sparked a sharp selloff, the greenback has yet to reclaim its prior highs, even as it traditionally serves as a global safe haven.
Markets are increasingly weighing policy uncertainty and Fed leadership risk, particularly as Trump has signaled a preference for aggressive rate cuts and floated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Chair. While the dollar still anchors the global financial system, capital has been rotating toward alternative hedges – including the euro, Swiss franc, gold, and select commodities – amid rising geopolitical tension and questions around U.S. economic stewardship.
Gold’s powerful rally, alongside strength in other hard assets and foreign currencies, underscores growing demand for diversification. Strategists caution that this is not outright dollar debasement — but rather the early stages of a structural reassessment that could play out over years, not weeks.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Currency Performance, 1-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Periods of U.S. policy uncertainty and geopolitical change often coincide with prolonged waves of dollar weakness.”
Super Bowl Betting Recap
Source: AP Photo / Matt Slocum
Sports betting companies will be in focus following the Super Bowl, with DraftKings and FanDuel under the microscope as analysts assess Q1 “hold” rates. The outcome of the game matters because sportsbooks have posted weaker-than-normal “hold” results in each of the last two Super Bowls, as betting outcomes favored the public rather than the house.
We’ll also be eagerly waiting to hear from sports betting companies about how much of their Super Bowl business was taken by prediction markets. Polymarket and Kalshi (with Robinhood) have directly stolen substantial fund flows from the legacy betting players. It will be interesting to learn the extent of the damage from this year’s big game.
DraftKings, Inc. (DKNG) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Kalshi’s growth is fueled by ad campaigns, earned media, social virality and, above all, superior depth, breadth, and distribution compared to traditional online sportsbooks.”
Sam Altman Tells Employees ChatGPT Growth Is Reaccelerating as OpenAI Nears $100B Funding
Source: Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images
Sam Altman told employees that OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT is “back to exceeding 10% monthly growth,” signaling renewed momentum amid rising competition. OpenAI plans to launch an updated ChatGPT model this week, as more than 800 million people now use the product weekly.
The company has declared a “code red” to improve ChatGPT as rivals like Anthropic gain traction, particularly in AI coding tools. Altman said OpenAI’s coding product Codex grew about 50% week over week, calling its recent growth “insane” after the launch of a new Codex model and a Mac app.
At the same time, OpenAI is preparing to begin limited testing of ads in ChatGPT, which will be clearly labeled and placed at the bottom of responses, with ads expected to account for less than half of long-term revenue. Altman and CFO Sarah Friar are pitching this growth story to investors as OpenAI moves toward closing a potential $100 billion funding round, with backing discussions involving partners like SoftBank, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon.
"More Texans use ChatGPT for free than total people use Claude in the US, so we have a differently-shaped problem than they do (If you want to pay for ChatGPT Plus or Pro, we don't show you ads.)… Anthropic serves an expensive product to rich people. We are glad they do that and we are doing that too, but we also feel strongly that we need to bring AI to billions of people who can't pay for subscriptions."
Major Economic Events:
Inflation readings, overdue retail sales data, small business outlooks, and Fed speeches highlight this week.
Monday (2/9): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Fed Governor Stephen Miran podcast interview, Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks
Tuesday (2/10): Business inventories (delayed report), Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks, Employment Cost Index, Import price index (delayed report), Import price index minus fuel, NFIB optimism index, Retail sales (delayed report), Retail sales minus autos
Wednesday (2/11): Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks, Monthly U.S. federal budget, U.S. employment report, U.S. hourly wages, U.S. unemployment rate, Wages year over year
Thursday (2/12): Existing home sales, Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks, Initial jobless claims
Friday (2/13): Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, Core CPI year over year, CPI year over year
What We’re Watching:
Consumer Price Index
U.S. headline inflation held at 2.7% YoY in December, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. The stability masked a meaningful cooldown in energy prices, with energy inflation slowing to +2.3% (from +4.2%), driven by falling gasoline prices (-3.4%) and softer fuel oil inflation. Used car prices also decelerated sharply, easing to +1.6% YoY.
At the same time, food (+3.1%) and shelter (+3.2%) inflation accelerated, keeping overall price pressures uneven. Shelter costs once again accounted for the largest share of the monthly increase, rising +0.4% MoM.
Core CPI – which strips out food and energy – held at 2.6% YoY, the lowest level since 2021 and below expectations for an uptick. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose +0.3%, in line with forecasts, while core CPI increased just +0.2%, undershooting expectations.
Economists expect the following this week:
• Headline CPI (MoM): +0.3% vs. +0.3% prior
• Core CPI (MoM): +0.2% vs. +0.2% prior
• Core CPI (YoY): 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior
“The direction of travel on inflation is improving — but shelter remains the last mile problem for the Fed.”
Retail Sales
U.S. retail sales rose +0.6% MoM in November, the strongest monthly gain since July, rebounding sharply from October’s revised -0.1% decline and beating expectations for a +0.4% increase.
Gains were broad-based, led by sporting goods & hobbies (+1.9%), miscellaneous retailers (+1.7%), gasoline stations (+1.4%), building & garden suppliers (+1.3%), motor vehicle dealers (+1.0%), and clothing (+0.9%). Spending at restaurants & bars (+0.6%) and online retailers (+0.4%) also remained firm. By contrast, sales were flat at general merchandise and electronics stores, while furniture sales slipped slightly.
Importantly, core retail sales – which feed directly into GDP – rose +0.4%, showing that consumer spending continues to remain strong.
Economists expect the following this week:
• Headline Retail Sales (MoM): +0.6% vs. -0.1% prior
• Core Retail Sales (MoM): +0.4% vs. -0.2% prior
“Consumers are still spending – not recklessly, but steadily – and that resilience remains the backbone of U.S. growth.”
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