- GRIT
- Posts
- 👉 The First Full Week of 2026 (!)
In partnership with
Welcome to your new week — and your new year.
We hope each of you enjoyed the holiday break, and are excited for the year ahead of us!
Read on for everything you should be watching this week.
Stop Drowning In AI Information Overload
Your inbox is flooded with newsletters. Your feed is chaos. Somewhere in that noise are the insights that could transform your work—but who has time to find them?
The Deep View solves this. We read everything, analyze what matters, and deliver only the intelligence you need. No duplicate stories, no filler content, no wasted time. Just the essential AI developments that impact your industry, explained clearly and concisely.
Replace hours of scattered reading with five focused minutes. While others scramble to keep up, you'll stay ahead of developments that matter. 600,000+ professionals at top companies have already made this switch.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Easing into the new year with a quiet week of earnings.
Monday (1/5): N/A
Tuesday (1/6): Angiodynamics
Wednesday (1/7): Albertsons Companies, Constellation Brands, Jeffries, MSC Industrial
Thursday (1/8): Commercial Metals, WD-40 Company
Friday (1/9): N/A
What We’re Watching:
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Constellation Brands (-36.5% over the past year) reports Q2 FY2025 earnings Thursday before the open, with investors watching how the premium beverage maker navigates soft consumer demand in beer and spirits while leaning into higher-margin segments like tequila and seltzers. Constellation has faced headwinds from elevated retail inventories and shifting drinking habits, making this quarter’s results a key read on stabilization and pricing power.
Last quarter, Constellation delivered $2.6 billion in revenue (+3% YoY) and $2.79 in adjusted EPS (+7% YoY), with strength in top-tier adult beverage brands partly offsetting weaker volumes in mainstream beer. Gross margins expanded modestly as cost efficiencies and pricing actions helped cushion input cost pressures, though management flagged ongoing inventory destocking at retail and moderation in on-premise activity.
Heading into this release, I’ll be watching volume trends across beer, tequila, and ready-to-drink categories, whether price/mix gains can sustain margin expansion, and any updates to full-year guidance amid macro-linked consumer softness. Commentary on inventory levels at wholesalers and retailers — especially in beer — will also be a key sentiment driver.
“We are focused on premiumization and operational discipline to drive long-term, sustainable growth.”
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
CES Conference in spotlight, Markets eye a fourth year of gains, and Venezuela shock: oil, bonds, and geopolitical risk in focus.
CES Conference
The CES conference kicks off this week in Las Vegas under the theme “Innovators Show Up,” with a heavy focus on AI, robotics, digital health, and mobility. CES has increasingly become a platform for strategy reveals and ecosystem signaling rather than just consumer gadgets, making it a key sentiment driver for tech markets early in the year.
Investors will be watching for AI roadmap updates, edge-AI hardware announcements, and partnerships from companies including Samsung, Intel, Sony, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and Meta Platforms, among others.
With AI now spanning devices, autos, and health care, CES will offer an early look at where AI monetization and hardware demand may trend in 2026.
“The show floor this year will be particularly populated with AI-powered hardware, including the sort of smart glasses popularized by Meta Platforms Inc. and that Snap Inc. and Apple Inc. are planning to launch by the end of 2026. While Meta and Snap will both have a presence at CES, the bulk of the news in this space is likely to come from smaller brands, such as Xreal Inc., Vuzix Corp., Halliday Global Ltd., Rokid and Even Realities.”
Markets Eye a Fourth Year of Gains
Wall Street is entering 2026 cautiously optimistic that lower interest rates and strong earnings growth can extend the equity rally for another year — even as valuations sit near historical extremes. After three consecutive years of double-digit gains, the S&P 500 is pushing into rare territory, where forward returns have historically become more dependent on earnings delivery rather than multiple expansion.
Strategists broadly expect positive returns, but at a slower pace. Major banks see modest upside driven by resilient economic momentum, easing monetary policy, and continued AI investment. Corporate profits are projected to grow in the mid-teens this year, which could help justify elevated valuations if expectations are met.
Still, risks are building beneath the surface. Mega-cap AI stocks have carried much of the rally, valuations remain stretched, and investor positioning is crowded.
What to watch this week:
Early signals from the December jobs report
Initial earnings commentary from large banks
Whether leadership broadens beyond AI and mega-caps
“The base case is one in which there is sufficient momentum in the economy — but it won’t look like the last few years.”
Venezuela Shock: Oil, Bonds, and Geopolitical Risk in Focus
Markets are digesting a dramatic escalation in Venezuela after the U.S. detained Nicolás Maduro, raising the prospect of a U.S.-managed transition period and a potential reset of the country’s energy and financial system. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves, and any shift in control or production outlook could have meaningful implications for global oil markets, EM debt, and geopolitical risk pricing.
Investors are already reacting. Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA bonds have surged, reflecting growing optimism around eventual debt restructuring and reintegration into global capital markets after years in default. Analysts note the rally is less about near-term fundamentals and more about political optionality — the possibility that a U.S.—backed transition unlocks oil output, foreign investment, and creditor negotiations.
What to watch this week:
Oil market reaction
Signals on interim governance and U.S. involvement in oil operations
Communication from Venezuelan officials, particularly Vice President Delcy Rodríguez
Continued repricing in Venezuelan bonds toward potential recovery values (50–60¢ range)
UN Security Council emergency meeting on U.S. operation in Venezuela today at 10AM ET
“The market is no longer trading Venezuela on fundamentals – it’s trading the probability of regime change and U.S. involvement.”
Major Economic Events:
First full week of 2026 and economic data is fully back on track after last year’s multi month disruption
Monday (1/5): Auto Sales, ISM Manufacturing Index
Tuesday (1/6): S&P Final U.S. Services PMI
Wednesday (1/7): ADP Employment, ISM Services Index, Job Openings (JOLTS)
Thursday (1/8): Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Deficit, U.S. Productivity, U.S. Consumer Credit
Friday (1/9): Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Housing Starts, UMich Consumer Sentiment
What We’re Watching:
Housing Starts
U.S. housing starts fell -8.5% MoM in August to an annualized pace of 1.31 million units, well below expectations of 1.37 million and marking one of the weakest readings since 2020. The decline underscores continued stress in residential construction as elevated inventory levels and a cooling labor market outweighed recent relief from lower mortgage rates.
Single-family starts dropped -7.0% to 890,000, their lowest level in over a year, while multi-family starts fell -11.0% to 403,000. Regionally, activity slumped sharply in the South and Midwest, partially offset by rebounds in the West and Northeast.
With data releases delayed by the government shutdown, this August report remains the latest snapshot of housing activity. September and October housing starts are expected to be released together, offering a clearer read on whether lower rates are beginning to stabilize the sector.
“[Fannie Mae’s] forecast projects total housing starts near 1.3 million annually in 2026, close to the 2025 level, signaling a resilient construction sector despite ongoing affordability challenges. Single-family starts are expected to recover modestly following recent declines, while multifamily starts stabilize after uneven performance in 2025.”
Nonfarm Payrolls
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by +64,000 in November, rebounding from a revised -105,000 decline in October and topping expectations for a +50,000 gain. While the headline marked a return to job growth, underlying trends point to a labor market that remains soft and uneven.
Hiring was concentrated in health care (+46K) and construction (+28K), with social assistance (+18K) continuing its steady upward trend. Offsetting those gains, employment declined in transportation and warehousing (-18K), while the federal government shed another -6,000 jobs, following a sharp -162,000 decline in October tied to deferred buyouts.
Revisions were a net negative, with August payrolls revised down by -22,000 and September cut by -11,000, reinforcing the narrative of gradual labor-market cooling.
Economist expect the following this month:
Nonfarm Payrolls: 57K consensus
“Following two quiet holiday-shortened weeks, investors should brace for a jam-packed week of economic data in the week ahead. The main event comes on Friday via the BLS Nonfarm Payrolls for December, the first "on-time" release of a major economic report since the 43-day Federal government shutdown.”
The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Disclosure: The author of this post has an existing business relationship with NEOS Investment Management, LLC, and is also a holder of numerous NEOS ETFs. The thoughts and opinions in this written piece are solely those of the author.
Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.
Cover Art Sources: Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION
No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.
The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.
Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.
By using the Site or any related social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.
Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy
If you have any questions please contact us at [email protected]