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- 👉 The Last Full Week of 2025 (!)
Welcome to the last full week of the year.
Between questionable economic forecasts, Fed drama in the spotlight, the final earnings reports of the year, and much more — we’re in for a jam-packed week.
Read on for everything you should be watching.
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Key Earnings Announcements:
Accenture, Carnival Corp, FedEx, General Mills, Micron and Nike headline this week.
Monday (12/15): N/A
Tuesday (12/16): Lennar
Wednesday (12/17): ABM, General Mills, Jabil, Micron
Thursday (12/18): Accenture, Blackberry, CarMax, Cintas, Darden, FactSet, FedEx, Nike
Friday (12/19): Carnival Corp, Conagra
What We’re Watching:
Micron Technologies (MU)
Micron Technology (+186.5% YTD) reports Q1 FY2026 earnings Tuesday after the close, with investors focused on whether the memory-chip leader can sustain pricing momentum and margin expansion as AI-driven demand reshapes the DRAM and NAND markets. Micron sits at the center of the AI supply chain, supplying high-bandwidth memory (HBM) critical to advanced data centers – but cyclicality and capacity discipline remain key swing factors.
Last quarter, Micron delivered $7.8 billion in revenue (+38% YoY) and $1.18 in adjusted EPS, far exceeding expectations as DRAM pricing rebounded sharply and HBM shipments accelerated. Gross margin expanded meaningfully, driven by tighter supply conditions, improved mix, and strong demand from AI customers. Management also guided to continued pricing strength into fiscal 2026, citing constrained industry capacity and rising AI memory content per server.
Heading into this print, I’ll be watching commentary around HBM supply agreements, pricing durability across DRAM and NAND, and whether margin gains can be sustained as competitors add capacity. Updates on CapEx discipline, customer concentration, and AI-related revenue visibility will be critical for the stock’s next move.
“AI is fundamentally changing memory demand, and Micron is uniquely positioned to benefit from that shift.”
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
General Mills (GIS)
General Mills (-26.8 % YTD) reports Q2 FY2025 earnings Wednesday before the open, with investors focused on whether the packaged-food giant can stabilize volumes and protect margins as consumers remain value-conscious and pricing power moderates. After several quarters of price-led growth, the market is watching for signs that demand elasticity is improving across core categories.
Last quarter, General Mills posted $5.0 billion in revenue (-1% YoY) and $1.10 in adjusted EPS (+6% YoY), beating expectations as cost savings and productivity initiatives offset softer volumes. Gross margin expanded modestly, helped by easing input costs and disciplined promotions, while North America Retail showed continued pressure in discretionary food categories.
For this quarter, I’ll be watching volume trends across cereals, snacks, and pet food, the pace of margin normalization as commodity costs cool, and management’s outlook on FY2025 organic sales growth. Commentary around price-mix, promotional intensity, and consumer trade-down behavior will be key for sentiment.
“We’re focused on delivering value to consumers while maintaining strong margins through disciplined execution.”
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Banks are still predicting double-digit market returns for 2026, prediction markets are beginning to price in a post-Powell Fed as Warsh odds surge, and ServiceNow is approaching a potential $7B acquisition.
Banks Still Bullish for 2026
Wall Street is entering 2026 with aggressive upside targets for U.S. equities, even as valuations screen expensive by most historical measures. In the most bullish major call, Oppenheimer set a year-end 2026 S&P 500 target of 8,100 (about +18% from early-December levels), leaning on the view that earnings can keep compounding as policy becomes more supportive and AI CapEx stays durable.
The pushback is that the setup is already stretched: the S&P 500 has been trading around the low-20s forward P/E range, well above longer-run averages, so the market is effectively “pre-paying” for a lot of good news. That’s why strategists are also debating whether 2026 gains will require broader participation beyond the mega-cap AI complex, rather than just multiple expansion.
Goldman’s framing captures the tension well: Big Tech can still drive the tape, but the “next leg” likely depends on the rest of the index re-accelerating as macro headwinds fade.
“We expect macro tailwinds from accelerating economic growth and a fading tariff drag on margins will support an acceleration in the earnings growth rate for the remaining 493 stocks.”
Markets Begin Pricing in a Post-Powell Fed as Warsh Odds Surge
Speculation around the next Federal Reserve Chair intensified after betting markets sharply raised the odds of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, following comments from President Trump that he is “leaning toward Warsh or Hassett.” Kalshi now puts Warsh’s chances near 40%, up dramatically from roughly 15% just days earlier, while Kevin Hassett’s lead has narrowed.
The shift comes as Trump reiterated his desire for much lower interest rates, saying he wants policy rates at “1% or lower,” pushing markets to consider a more accommodative Fed regime once Chair Jay Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Both Warsh and Hassett are viewed as aligned with that preference, fueling renewed debate around the pace and depth of future rate cuts.
Currency markets have already begun reacting, with traders pricing in the implications of a Trump-aligned Fed leadership and a potentially more dovish policy path beyond what the current Fed projects. While the Fed’s own outlook still points to just one cut in 2026, investors are increasingly questioning whether that guidance holds under new leadership.
“Markets are starting to discount not just rate cuts, but a structural shift in how monetary policy could be set after Powell.”
ServiceNow Approaches Potential $7B Deal for Armis
ServiceNow is in advanced talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Armis in a deal valued at up to $7 billion, which would be the company’s largest acquisition to date. Sources say a deal could be announced in the coming days, though negotiations could still fall apart or attract a competing bidder.
Armis, founded by former Israeli military cyber-intelligence veterans, specializes in identifying and monitoring security threats across connected devices in healthcare, finance, and defense. The company recently reached $300 million in annual recurring revenue and had been targeting a potential IPO in 2026. The acquisition would deepen ServiceNow’s push to integrate cybersecurity into its enterprise workflow platform, following its $2.85 billion purchase of AI firm Moveworks earlier this year.
If completed, the deal would align ServiceNow with a broader industry trend as major tech players aggressively buy cybersecurity firms to strengthen their platforms.
Major Economic Events:
October & November jobs report will be released, along with CPI and retail sales.
Monday (12/15): Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Home Builder Confidence Index
Tuesday (12/16): S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI, U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Retail Sales, U.S. Unemployment Rate
Wednesday (12/17): Fed Governor Chris Waller Speaks, New York Fed President John Williams Remarks
Thursday (12/18): Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
Friday (12/19): Consumer Sentiment (Final), Existing Home Sales
What We’re Watching:
Consumer Price Index
U.S. inflation edged higher in September, with headline CPI rising to 3.0% YoY, up from 2.9% in August and marking the highest reading since January. The increase was driven largely by energy prices, which climbed 2.8% on the year, led by fuel oil and gasoline. Shelter inflation held steady at 3.6%, continuing to ease gradually from earlier peaks.
At the same time, core inflation slowed to 3.0% YoY, down from 3.1% and below expectations, signaling continued moderation in underlying price pressures. Notably, price growth cooled in used cars, transportation services, and food, while new vehicle prices ticked slightly higher. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3%, below August’s 0.4% pace, with gasoline accounting for the largest portion of the increase. Core CPI advanced 0.2%, down from 0.3% in August.
Economists expect the following this week:
Headline CPI (YoY): +3.0% vs. +2.9% prior
Core CPI (YoY): +3.0% vs. +3.1% prior
Core CPI (MoM): +0.2% vs. +0.3% prior
“This is a classic mixed inflation report – headline noise driven by energy, but steady progress where it matters most for the Fed.”
Retail Sales
U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% MoM in September, marking the smallest increase in four months and falling short of expectations for a 0.4% gain. The slowdown followed a strong 0.6% increase in August and signals cooling consumer momentum as higher prices and tighter financial conditions weigh on discretionary spending.
Gains were concentrated in miscellaneous retailers (+2.9%) and gasoline stations (+2.0%), with modest increases at restaurants & bars (+0.7%) and furniture stores (+0.6%). However, several discretionary categories declined, including sporting goods (-2.5%), clothing (-0.7%), nonstore retailers (-0.7%), electronics (-0.5%), and motor vehicles (-0.3%).
More importantly for growth, core retail sales – which feed directly into GDP – fell 0.1%, reversing August’s 0.6% gain and missing expectations for a 0.3% increase. The pullback suggests consumer spending may be entering a softer phase heading into the final quarter of the year, which is usually not the case.
Economists expect the following this week:
Headline Retail Sales (MoM): +0.2% vs. +0.6% prior
Core Retail Sales (MoM): -0.1% vs. +0.6% prior
“Consumers are still spending, but they’re becoming more selective – and that shift is starting to show up in the data.”
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